Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
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Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
The two prices add up to 104.2%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
NE · 17 games, 492 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
28.9 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 50% pass · sacked on 8.7% of dropbacks
8.9 yards per attempt · 72.0% completions · 0.306 EPA per dropback
BUF has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 17 games
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
Totals of 49.5 went over 53 of 126 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.3 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
BUF · 16 games, 460 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
28.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 8.0% of dropbacks
8.0 yards per attempt · 69.3% completions · 0.143 EPA per dropback
NE has allowed 6.7 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.3 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
This line sits on 3, which was the exact final margin in 1,046 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.