New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills

Final · New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26

Opened

-3

First seen Jul 29

Closed

+1.5

+4.5 since open

Total

55.5

Prices archived

162

20 spread · 22 total

5 point gap between books right now

Where the best number is

BUF+1.5DraftKings

NE+3.5FanDuel

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

39.3%

BUF

60.7%

Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.

6.0%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Drake Maye · NEQB Index componentsJosh Allen · BUF

62 · B+

Index

49 · C

30.2

Attempts / gm

27.6

6.8%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

6.8%

65.6%

Completion

QB Index · vs BUF

Drake Maye

NE · 5 games, 151 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

19th of 34

30.2 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

8th of 34

8.1 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · 0.126 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

12th of 32

BUF has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 238 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record

Open

Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

8 reprices since, 17.5 points of movement in all. It closed +1.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -7 to +1.5 along the way, retracing 13 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.

23% 5+ days out3% 5–2 days out74% Gameday

Biggest move

5 points at once — -3.5 to +1.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET.

Crossed 3

-4.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET — back through 3.

Crossed 3

-1.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record

Open

Opened 49.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

9 reprices since, 18 points of movement in all. It closed 55.5 — 6 points higher than the open. It ranged from 45.5 to 55.5 along the way, retracing 12 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.

6% 5+ days out5% Final two days89% Gameday

Biggest move

6 points at once — 45.5 to 51.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 104 of 194.

The total

Totals of 55.5 went over 8 of 16 times.

Only 16 games at this number — too few to read.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 66

Andres Borregales

Kicking Points

5.5market 51% over

over

-119

DraftKings

under

-109

DraftKings

Bradley Chubb

Sacks

0.5

over

-144

FanDuel

under

—

Christian Elliss

Sacks

0.5

over

+410

FanDuel

under

—

D.J. Moore

Receiving Yards

50.5market 50% over

we project44.5/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

D.J. Moore

Receptions

3.5market 57% over1.8pp between books — shop it

over

-154

DraftKings

under

+124

FanDuel

Dalton Kincaid

Receiving Yards

21.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it

we project55.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

Dalton Kincaid

Receptions

4.5market 42% over2.3pp between books — shop it

over

+123

DraftKings

under

-148

FanDuel

Daquan Jones

Sacks

0.5

over

+410

FanDuel

under

—

Dawson Knox

Receiving Yards

13.5market 19% over10.8pp between books — shop it

over

+390

DraftKings

under

-310

FanDuel

Dawson Knox

Receptions

1.5market 40% over2.7pp between books — shop it

over

+152

FanDuel

under

-175

DraftKings

Demario Douglas

Receiving Yards

15.5market 14% over39.0pp between books — shop it

we project29.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+600

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Demario Douglas

Receptions

2.5market 15% over44.3pp between books — shop it

over

+550

DraftKings

under

+112

FanDuel

Deone Walker

Sacks

0.5

over

+320

FanDuel

under

—

Drake Maye

Carries

7.5market 47% over

we project6.0/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Completions

21.5market 43% over

over

+115

DraftKings

under

-156

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Interceptions

1.5market 25% over

over

+275

DraftKings

under

-400

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Pass Attempts

33.5market 55% over

we project30.2/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-141

DraftKings

under

+105

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Passing TDs

1.5market 52% over11.1pp between books — shop it

over

+125

FanDuel

under

-105

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Passing Yards

231.5market 50% over

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Rushing Yards

57.5market 50% over

we project32.2/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Dre'Mont Jones

Sacks

0.5

over

+182

FanDuel

under

—

Ed Oliver

Sacks

0.5

over

+188

FanDuel

under

—

Eli Raridon

Receiving Yards

12.5market 30% over9.4pp between books — shop it

over

+210

DraftKings

under

-188

FanDuel

Eli Raridon

Receptions

0.5market 62% over4.2pp between books — shop it

over

-158

FanDuel

under

+145

DraftKings

Elijah Ponder

Sacks

0.5

over

+182

FanDuel

under

—

Gabe Jacas

Sacks

0.5

over

+235

FanDuel

under

—

Greg Rousseau

Sacks

0.5

over

-178

FanDuel

under

—

Hunter Henry

Receiving Yards

51.5market 50% over

we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Hunter Henry

Receptions

3.5market 64% over21.8pp between books — shop it

over

+112

FanDuel

under

+160

DraftKings

James Cook

Carries

11.5market 51% over

we project19.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

James Cook

Receiving Yards

8.5market 19% over23.9pp between books — shop it

over

+400

DraftKings

under

-172

FanDuel

James Cook

Receptions

1.5market 58% over9.8pp between books — shop it

over

-108

FanDuel

under

+120

DraftKings

James Cook

Rushing Yards

50.5market 50% over

we project106.4/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Josh Allen

Carries

5.5market 53% over

we project8.6/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Josh Allen

Completions

24.5market 47% over

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Josh Allen

Interceptions

0.5market 26% over

over

+265

DraftKings

under

-370

DraftKings

Josh Allen

Pass Attempts

33.5market 47% over

we project27.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Josh Allen

Passing TDs

1.5market 14% over47.8pp between books — shop it

over

+600

DraftKings

under

+125

FanDuel

Josh Allen

Passing Yards

260.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Josh Allen

Rushing Yards

19.5market 50% over

we project47.8/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-118

FanDuel

under

-112

FanDuel

Keon Coleman

Receiving Yards

12.5market 51% over

we project44.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-109

DraftKings

Keon Coleman

Receptions

1.5market 57% over10.4pp between books — shop it

over

-102

FanDuel

under

+115

DraftKings

Khalil Shakir

Receiving Yards

86.5market 50% over

we project51.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Khalil Shakir

Receptions

3.5market 55% over1.8pp between books — shop it

over

-143

DraftKings

under

+116

FanDuel

Kyle Williams

Receiving Yards

0.5market 10% over35.6pp between books — shop it

we project27.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+1300

DraftKings

under

-180

FanDuel

Kyle Williams

Receptions

0.5market 12% over58.9pp between books — shop it

over

+1100

DraftKings

under

+152

FanDuel

Mack Hollins

Receiving Yards

42.5market 49% over

we project52.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-110

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Mack Hollins

Receptions

3.5market 48% over4.0pp between books — shop it

over

-104

DraftKings

under

-106

FanDuel

Michael Hoecht

Sacks

0.5

over

+154

FanDuel

under

—

Milton Williams

Sacks

0.5

over

+270

FanDuel

under

—

Rhamondre Stevenson

Carries

11.5market 57% over

we project11.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-156

DraftKings

under

+115

DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson

Receiving Yards

8.5market 50% over

over

-118

FanDuel

under

-112

FanDuel

Rhamondre Stevenson

Receptions

2.5market 45% over6.5pp between books — shop it

over

+110

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Rhamondre Stevenson

Rushing Yards

46.5market 50% over

we project45.4/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-118

FanDuel

Robert Spillane

Sacks

0.5

over

+410

FanDuel

under

—

Romeo Doubs

Receiving Yards

58.5market 16% over36.6pp between books — shop it

we project43.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+500

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Romeo Doubs

Receptions

3.5market 61% over18.6pp between books — shop it

over

+112

FanDuel

under

+140

DraftKings

Terrel Bernard

Sacks

0.5

over

+400

FanDuel

under

—

TreVeyon Henderson

Carries

12.5market 50% over

we project10.5/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

TreVeyon Henderson

Receiving Yards

0.5market 5% over47.8pp between books — shop it

over

+1900

DraftKings

under

-118

FanDuel

TreVeyon Henderson

Receptions

1.5market 37% over3.4pp between books — shop it

over

+154

DraftKings

under

-180

FanDuel

TreVeyon Henderson

Rushing Yards

40.5market 20% over32.0pp between books — shop it

we project40.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

+370

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Ty Johnson

Receiving Yards

12.5market 50% over

over

-110

FanDuel

under

-114

DraftKings

Ty Johnson

Receptions

1.5market 51% over2.1pp between books — shop it

over

-125

DraftKings

under

+102

FanDuel

Ty Johnson

Rushing Yards

0.5market 29% over16.0pp between books — shop it

over

+225

DraftKings

under

-152

FanDuel

Tyler Bass

Kicking Points

8.5market 45% over

over

+108

DraftKings

under

-139

DraftKings

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.