Tennessee TitansatBaltimore Ravens

Final · Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24

Opened

-8.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

-13.5

-5 since open

Total

34.5

Prices archived

193

18 spread · 24 total

Crossed 10 since opening

Where the best number is

BAL-13.5DraftKings

TEN+13.5DraftKings

Over34.5DraftKings

Under47.5FanDuel

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

TEN

1.0%

BAL

99.0%

We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.

0.9%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 100.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Cam Ward · TENQB Index componentsLamar Jackson · BAL

40 · D

Index

59 · B

31.0

Attempts / gm

24.0

6.1%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

6.8%

63.2%

Completion

QB Index · vs BAL

Cam Ward

TEN · 5 games, 155 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

17th of 34

31.0 attempts per game · team runs 53 plays at 59% pass · sacked on 6.1% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

26th of 34

5.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · -0.185 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

19th of 32

BAL has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 168 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record

Open

Opened -8.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

7 reprices since, 23 points of movement in all. It closed -13.5 — the favourite is 5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -19.5 to -8.5 along the way, retracing 18 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 2 PM ET.

13% 5+ days out87% Gameday

Biggest move

6 points at once — -11.5 to -17.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 1 PM ET.

Crossed 10

-8.5 to -10.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — through 10 and away from it.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record

Open

Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.

Move

9 reprices since, 33 points of movement in all. It closed 34.5 — 13 points lower than the open. It ranged from 34.5 to 51.5 along the way, retracing 20 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 3 PM ET.

12% 5+ days out3% 5–2 days out85% Gameday

Biggest move

14 points at once — 48.5 to 34.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 4 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 13.5 covered 22 of 61 games.

The range clears a coin flip.

They won outright in 50 of 61.

The total

Totals of 34.5 went over 33 of 60 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 62

Calais Campbell

Sacks

0.5

over

+390

FanDuel

under

—

Calvin Ridley

Receiving Yards

6.5market 51% over

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-109

DraftKings

Calvin Ridley

Receptions

1.5market 9% over29.6pp between books — shop it

over

+1600

DraftKings

under

-156

DraftKings

Cam Ward

Passing TDs

0.5market 59% over

over

-168

FanDuel

under

+128

FanDuel

Cam Ward

Passing Yards

245.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Cam Ward

Rushing Yards

6.5market 51% over

we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-118

FanDuel

under

-110

FanDuel

Cameron Ward

Completions

21.5market 49% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-125

DraftKings

Cameron Ward

Interceptions

1.5market 26% over

over

+260

DraftKings

under

-370

DraftKings

Cameron Ward

Pass Attempts

33.5market 47% over

over

+100

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Cameron Ward

Passing TDs

0.5market 43% over

over

+115

DraftKings

under

-156

DraftKings

Cameron Ward

Passing Yards

186.5market 32% over

over

+195

DraftKings

under

-270

DraftKings

Cameron Ward

Rushing Yards

27.5

over

+800

DraftKings

under

—

Carnell Tate

Receiving Yards

43.5market 50% over

we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-115

DraftKings

Carnell Tate

Receptions

4.5market 58% over12.2pp between books — shop it

over

+102

FanDuel

under

+120

DraftKings

Chris Moore

Receiving Yards

9.5market 50% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-115

DraftKings

Chris Moore

Receptions

0.5market 54% over2.2pp between books — shop it

over

-135

DraftKings

under

+112

FanDuel

Derrick Henry

Carries

21.5market 53% over

we project22.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Derrick Henry

Receiving Yards

-2.5market 42% over

over

+120

DraftKings

under

-152

FanDuel

Derrick Henry

Receptions

1.5market 30% over13.4pp between books — shop it

over

+285

DraftKings

under

-147

DraftKings

Derrick Henry

Rushing Yards

104.5market 50% over

we project95.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Elic Ayomanor

Receiving Yards

18.5market 50% over

we project26.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

DraftKings

Elic Ayomanor

Receptions

1.5market 59% over3.0pp between books — shop it

over

-154

FanDuel

under

+130

DraftKings

Gunnar Helm

Receiving Yards

18.5market 50% over

we project12.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-110

FanDuel

under

-112

DraftKings

Gunnar Helm

Receptions

2.5market 54% over2.2pp between books — shop it

over

-135

DraftKings

under

+112

FanDuel

Jacob Martin

Sacks

0.5

over

+240

FanDuel

under

—

Jeffery Simmons

Sacks

0.5

over

+136

FanDuel

under

—

Jermaine Johnson II

Sacks

0.5

over

+240

FanDuel

under

—

Joey Slye

Kicking Points

4.5market 54% over

over

-133

DraftKings

under

+104

DraftKings

John Franklin-Myers

Sacks

0.5

over

+240

FanDuel

under

—

Justice Hill

Carries

3.5market 48% over

we project3.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-125

DraftKings

Justice Hill

Receiving Yards

5.5market 50% over2.2pp between books — shop it

over

-106

FanDuel

under

-120

DraftKings

Justice Hill

Receptions

1.5market 53% over

over

-122

FanDuel

under

+100

DraftKings

Justice Hill

Rushing Yards

11.5market 50% over

we project26.6/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Keldric Faulk

Sacks

0.5

over

+360

FanDuel

under

—

Kyle Hamilton

Sacks

0.5

over

+390

FanDuel

under

—

Lamar Jackson

Carries

4.5market 51% over

we project4.8/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Lamar Jackson

Completions

20.5market 51% over

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Lamar Jackson

Interceptions

0.5market 21% over

over

+350

DraftKings

under

-526

DraftKings

Lamar Jackson

Pass Attempts

25.5market 49% over

we project24.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-125

DraftKings

Lamar Jackson

Passing TDs

1.5market 67% over15.9pp between books — shop it

over

-125

FanDuel

under

+180

DraftKings

Lamar Jackson

Passing Yards

293.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Lamar Jackson

Rushing Yards

31.5market 49% over

we project36.0/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-109

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Mark Andrews

Receiving Yards

39.5market 24% over36.6pp between books — shop it

we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+500

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Mark Andrews

Receptions

4.5market 55% over17.6pp between books — shop it

over

+134

FanDuel

under

+105

DraftKings

Mike Green

Sacks

0.5

over

+235

FanDuel

under

—

Nnamdi Madubuike

Sacks

0.5

over

+205

FanDuel

under

—

Rashod Bateman

Receiving Yards

28.5market 37% over2.3pp between books — shop it

we project46.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+170

DraftKings

under

-210

FanDuel

Rashod Bateman

Receptions

2.5market 14% over32.7pp between books — shop it

over

+900

DraftKings

under

-172

DraftKings

Tavius Robinson

Sacks

0.5

over

+106

FanDuel

under

—

Tony Pollard

Carries

17.5market 58% over

we project13.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-161

DraftKings

under

+120

DraftKings

Tony Pollard

Receiving Yards

8.5market 50% over1.9pp between books — shop it

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Tony Pollard

Receptions

1.5market 40% over14.0pp between books — shop it

over

+135

DraftKings

under

-102

FanDuel

Tony Pollard

Rushing Yards

48.5market 15% over43.5pp between books — shop it

we project54.6/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

+950

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Trey Hendrickson

Sacks

0.5

over

+130

FanDuel

under

—

Tyjae Spears

Receiving Yards

6.5market 50% over

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Tyjae Spears

Receptions

2.5market 42% over

over

+120

DraftKings

under

-160

FanDuel

Tyjae Spears

Rushing Yards

11.5market 51% over

we project13.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-102

FanDuel

Tyler Loop

Kicking Points

7.5market 55% over

over

-139

DraftKings

under

+108

DraftKings

Wan'Dale Robinson

Receiving Yards

26.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it

we project35.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

Wan'Dale Robinson

Receptions

3.5market 7% over59.4pp between books — shop it

over

+2500

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Zay Flowers

Receiving Yards

134.5market 50% over

we project101.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Zay Flowers

Receptions

5.5market 44% over

over

+117

DraftKings

under

-148

FanDuel

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.