Final · Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27
Opened
+2.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-2.5
-5 since open
Total
44.5
Prices archived
101
13 spread · 14 total
0.5 points short of 35 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
CLE+2.5FanDuel
PIT+2.5DraftKings
Over40.5FanDuel
Under44.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
PIT
56.3%
CLE
43.7%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
6.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Aaron Rodgers · PITQB Index componentsDeshaun Watson · CLE
49 · C
Index
48 · C
36.8
Attempts / gm
29.6
7.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
11.4%
59.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs CLE
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · 5 games, 184 attempts
49
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
10th of 34
36.8 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.7 yards per attempt · 59.8% completions · -0.071 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
21st of 32
CLE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 232 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Open
Opened +2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 65 days before kickoff.
Move
3 reprices since, 6 points of movement in all. It closed -2.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -2.5 to +3 along the way, retracing 1 point of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Oct 1, 9 PM ET.
8% 5+ days out8% 5–2 days out84% Gameday
Biggest move
5 points at once — +2.5 to -2.5 on Thu, Oct 1, 9 PM ET.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 4 days, then left it on Sun, Sep 27, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record
Open
Opened 40.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 65 days before kickoff.
Move
4 reprices since, 10 points of movement in all. It closed 44.5 — 4 points higher than the open. It ranged from 37.5 to 44.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Oct 1, 9 PM ET.
20% 5+ days out20% 5–2 days out60% Gameday
Biggest move
6 points at once — 38.5 to 44.5 on Thu, Oct 1, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 44.5 went over 129 of 294 times.
The range clears a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 60
Aaron Rodgers
Completions
24.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Interceptions
1.5market 42% over
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-167
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Pass Attempts
40.5market 47% over
we project36.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Passing TDs
1.5market 64% over28.3pp between books — shop it
over
+146
FanDuel
under
+160
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Passing Yards
214.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Rushing Yards
0.5market 47% over3.7pp between books — shop it
we project3.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Alex Highsmith
Sacks
0.5
over
-158
FanDuel
under
—
Andre Szmyt
Kicking Points
6.5market 46% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Blake Whiteheart
Receiving Yards
0.5market 36% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
+160
DraftKings
under
-194
FanDuel
Blake Whiteheart
Receptions
0.5market 39% over11.6pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Cameron Heyward
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Carson Schwesinger
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Boswell
Kicking Points
7.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Darnell Washington
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project26.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Darnell Washington
Receptions
1.5market 60% over
over
-168
FanDuel
under
+136
DraftKings
Denzel Boston
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over
we project66.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Denzel Boston
Receptions
2.5market 57% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+118
DraftKings
Derek Barnett
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Derrick Harmon
Sacks
0.5
over
+172
FanDuel
under
—
Deshaun Watson
Carries
4.5market 50% over
we project7.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Completions
18.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Interceptions
0.5market 41% over
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-175
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Pass Attempts
28.5market 51% over
we project29.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Passing TDs
0.5market 61% over3.9pp between books — shop it
over
-192
DraftKings
under
+172
FanDuel
Deshaun Watson
Passing Yards
185.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Rushing Yards
18.5market 50% over
we project33.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
DK Metcalf
Receiving Yards
45.5market 50% over
we project45.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
DK Metcalf
Receptions
3.5market 55% over
over
-139
DraftKings
under
+108
DraftKings
Germie Bernard
Receiving Yards
9.5market 50% over1.6pp between books — shop it
we project35.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-104
FanDuel
under
-115
DraftKings
Germie Bernard
Receptions
1.5market 36% over
over
+172
FanDuel
under
-213
DraftKings
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receiving Yards
42.5market 49% over
we project31.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receptions
4.5market 50% over
over
-106
FanDuel
under
-115
DraftKings
Isaiah McGuire
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Jaylen Warren
Carries
19.5market 53% over
we project14.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Receiving Yards
25.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Receptions
3.5market 49% over
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-118
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Rushing Yards
75.5market 50% over
we project82.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jerry Jeudy
Receiving Yards
14.5market 51% over
we project20.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Jerry Jeudy
Receptions
1.5market 44% over
over
+114
FanDuel
under
-145
DraftKings
KC Concepcion
Carries
0.5
over
-167
DraftKings
under
—
KC Concepcion
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
KC Concepcion
Receptions
3.5market 53% over4.3pp between books — shop it
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+118
FanDuel
KC Concepcion
Rushing Yards
0.5market 38% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-180
FanDuel
Maliek Collins
Sacks
0.5
over
+205
FanDuel
under
—
Mason Graham
Sacks
0.5
over
+144
FanDuel
under
—
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receiving Yards
32.5market 51% over
we project29.7/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receptions
3.5market 49% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Pat Freiermuth
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
we project33.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Pat Freiermuth
Receptions
3.5market 45% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Carries
13.5market 55% over
we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Receiving Yards
17.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Quinshon Judkins
Receptions
2.5market 40% over4.4pp between books — shop it
over
+162
FanDuel
under
-182
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Rushing Yards
55.5market 50% over
we project44.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Raheim Sanders
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Raheim Sanders
Receptions
1.5market 43% over20.2pp between books — shop it
over
+115
DraftKings
under
+148
FanDuel
Raheim Sanders
Rushing Yards
3.5market 48% over
we project8.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Roman Wilson
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project37.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Roman Wilson
Receptions
2.5market 51% over14.6pp between books — shop it
over
+144
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
T.J. Watt
Sacks
0.5
over
-174
FanDuel
under
—
Travis Homer
Rushing Yards
6.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
64.2%
6.7
Yards / att
6.8
315.0
Air yards / gm
211.8
-0.071
EPA / dropback
0.024
-2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
-1.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs PIT
Deshaun Watson
CLE · 5 games, 148 attempts
48
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
21st of 34
29.6 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 11.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.8 yards per attempt · 64.2% completions · 0.024 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
11th of 32
PIT has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 180 yards26 attempts × 6.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
DK Metcalf21.1% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Roman Wilson14.3% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Germie Bernard11.4% target share · 6.8 PPR last 4
Denzel Boston20.3% target share · 13.8 PPR last 4
KC Concepcion19.6% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Jerry Jeudy10.1% target share · 4 PPR last 4
Jaylen Warren73.7% of team carries · 20.7 PPR last 4
Rico Dowdle15.8% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 2
Travis Homer5.3% of team carries · 0.5 PPR last 3
Quinshon Judkins62.4% of team carries · 12.3 PPR last 4
Pat Freiermuth14.9% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Darnell Washington9.1% target share · 6.6 PPR last 4
Harold Fannin Jr.18.2% target share · 11.9 PPR last 4