Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
PHI
58.0%
CHI
42.0%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
6.2%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.2%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Jalen Hurts · PHIQB Index componentsTyson Bagent · CHI
51 · C
Index
24 · F
30.8
Attempts / gm
21.3
7.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.9%
57.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs CHI
Jalen Hurts
PHI · 5 games, 154 attempts
51
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
18th of 34
30.8 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
27th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.8% completions · -0.058 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
2nd of 32
CHI has allowed 8.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 173 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened -1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 62 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 10 points of movement in all. It closed +2.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -1.5 to +4.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
70% 5–2 days out20% Final two days10% Gameday
Biggest move
6 points at once — -1.5 to +4.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
Crossed 3
-1.5 to +4.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 3
+3.5 to +2.5 on Mon, Sep 28, 9 PM ET — back through 3.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 41.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 5 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 3 points of movement in all. It closed 40.5 — 1 point lower than the open. It ranged from 40.5 to 42.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Sep 28, 9 PM ET.
100% Gameday
Biggest move
2 points at once — 42.5 to 40.5 on Mon, Sep 28, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 40.5 went over 112 of 207 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 67
Cairo Santos
Kicking Points
6.5market 47% over
over
+102
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Case Keenum
Completions
21.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Case Keenum
Interceptions
0.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Case Keenum
Pass Attempts
34.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Case Keenum
Passing TDs
0.5market 63% over
over
-192
FanDuel
under
+153
DraftKings
Case Keenum
Passing Yards
167.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Case Keenum
Rushing Yards
0.5market 47% over5.3pp between books — shop it
over
+118
FanDuel
under
-132
DraftKings
Cole Kmet
Receiving Yards
2.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cole Kmet
Receptions
1.5market 40% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+133
DraftKings
under
-166
FanDuel
Colston Loveland
Receiving Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project22.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Colston Loveland
Receptions
3.5market 44% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+113
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
D'Andre Swift
Carries
17.5market 48% over
we project15.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
D'Andre Swift
Receptions
2.5market 40% over
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-180
FanDuel
D'Andre Swift
Rushing Yards
60.5market 50% over
we project70.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Darius Cooper
Receiving Yards
0.5market 42% over2.6pp between books — shop it
we project26.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-144
FanDuel
Darius Cooper
Receptions
0.5market 45% over10.9pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Dayo Odeyingbo
Sacks
0.5
over
+230
FanDuel
under
—
DeVonta Smith
Receiving Yards
70.5market 50% over
we project78.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
DeVonta Smith
Receptions
5.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Dontayvion Wicks
Receiving Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project52.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Dontayvion Wicks
Receptions
3.5market 42% over
over
+130
FanDuel
under
-159
DraftKings
Grady Jarrett
Sacks
0.5
over
+360
FanDuel
under
—
Jake Elliott
Kicking Points
6.5market 54% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Jalen Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
+144
FanDuel
under
—
Jalen Hurts
Carries
5.5market 53% over
we project4.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Completions
18.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Interceptions
0.5market 33% over
over
+180
DraftKings
under
-250
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Pass Attempts
27.5market 53% over
we project30.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Passing TDs
1.5market 40% over
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-176
FanDuel
Jalen Hurts
Passing Yards
217.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Rushing Yards
24.5market 49% over
we project21.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jalyx Hunt
Sacks
0.5
over
+120
FanDuel
under
—
Johnny Mundt
Receiving Yards
9.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Johnny Mundt
Receptions
1.5market 41% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+129
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Jordan Davis
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Jordan van den Berg
Sacks
0.5
over
+550
FanDuel
under
—
Kalif Raymond
Receiving Yards
20.5market 51% over
we project45.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Kalif Raymond
Receptions
2.5market 47% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Kyle Monangai
Carries
6.5market 53% over
we project15.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Kyle Monangai
Receiving Yards
3.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kyle Monangai
Receptions
1.5market 44% over
over
+116
DraftKings
under
-149
DraftKings
Kyle Monangai
Rushing Yards
27.5market 50% over
we project81.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Luther Burden III
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over2.0pp between books — shop it
we project53.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-106
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Luther Burden III
Receptions
3.5market 46% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+107
DraftKings
under
-132
FanDuel
Makai Lemon
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project21.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Makai Lemon
Receptions
2.5market 58% over13.0pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
+125
DraftKings
Montez Sweat
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Moro Ojomo
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Nolan Smith Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+124
FanDuel
under
—
Rome Odunze
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project54.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Rome Odunze
Receptions
2.5market 43% over
over
+117
DraftKings
under
-148
FanDuel
Saquon Barkley
Carries
19.5market 53% over
we project9.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Saquon Barkley
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Saquon Barkley
Receptions
2.5market 42% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
+134
FanDuel
under
-159
DraftKings
Saquon Barkley
Rushing Yards
71.5market 50% over
we project45.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tank Bigsby
Rushing Yards
12.5market 50% over
we project22.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Completions
17.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Interceptions
0.5market 61% over
over
-185
DraftKings
under
+143
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Pass Attempts
29.5market 51% over
we project21.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Passing TDs
1.5market 32% over
over
+188
FanDuel
under
-260
FanDuel
Tyson Bagent
Passing Yards
174.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Tyson Bagent
Rushing Yards
0market 50% over
we project6.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Will Shipley
Receiving Yards
0.5market 49% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+100
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Zach Ertz
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Zach Ertz
Receptions
1.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Zack Baun
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
65.6%
6.1
Yards / att
6.4
231.8
Air yards / gm
144.3
-0.058
EPA / dropback
-0.077
-2.5
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs PHI
Tyson Bagent
CHI · 3 games, 64 attempts
24
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
32nd of 34
21.3 attempts per game · team runs 71 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 5.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · -0.077 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
18th of 32
PHI has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 207 yards32 attempts × 6.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 19.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
100.5 yards in 1 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Dontayvion Wicks19.6% target share · 8.4 PPR last 4
DeVonta Smith18.9% target share · 16.2 PPR last 3
Makai Lemon15.4% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Luther Burden III21.7% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Rome Odunze18.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Kalif Raymond16.8% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Saquon Barkley30.8% of team carries · 5.8 PPR last 4
Tank Bigsby23.9% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4
Will Shipley17.1% of team carries · 4.4 PPR last 4
D'Andre Swift45.9% of team carries · 12.1 PPR last 4
Dallas Goedert11.2% target share · 11.6 PPR last 3
Zach Ertz5.6% target share · 1.7 PPR last 3
Johnny Mundt3.5% target share · 1 PPR last 4
Colston Loveland14.3% target share · 6 PPR last 4
