Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
LAR
71.8%
DEN
28.2%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
6.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Matthew Stafford · LAQB Index componentsBo Nix · DEN
65 · B+
Index
28 · F
43.2
Attempts / gm
31.5
3.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.1%
64.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs DEN
Matthew Stafford
LA · 5 games, 216 attempts
65
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
1st of 34
43.2 attempts per game · team runs 69 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 3.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.3 yards per attempt · 64.4% completions · 0.143 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
24th of 32
DEN has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 309 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened +3 on Wed, Jul 29, 61 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 12.5 points of movement in all. It closed +6.5 — the favourite is 3.5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -1.5 to +6.5 along the way, retracing 9 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 8 PM ET.
4% 5–2 days out96% Gameday
Biggest move
5 points at once — +1.5 to +6.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 9 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+1.5 to +6.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 9 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 57 days, then left it on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 61 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 8 points of movement in all. It closed 41.5 — 4 points lower than the open. It ranged from 41.5 to 45.5 along the way, retracing 4 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 AM ET.
38% 5–2 days out12% Final two days50% Gameday
Biggest move
2 points at once — 43.5 to 41.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
The total
Totals of 41.5 went over 126 of 264 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 63
Aaron Donald
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Adam Trautman
Receiving Yards
6.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Adam Trautman
Receptions
0.5market 62% over
over
-196
DraftKings
under
+152
FanDuel
Blake Corum
Carries
11.5market 48% over
we project7.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Blake Corum
Receiving Yards
0.5market 42% over3.3pp between books — shop it
over
+142
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Blake Corum
Receptions
0.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Blake Corum
Rushing Yards
48.5market 49% over
we project36.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Bo Nix
Carries
4.5market 52% over
we project3.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-102
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Completions
21.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-118
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Interceptions
0.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Pass Attempts
33.5market 47% over
we project32.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Passing TDs
1.5market 43% over
over
+122
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Passing Yards
211.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Rushing Yards
16.5market 50% over
we project7.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Braden Fiske
Sacks
0.5
over
+360
FanDuel
under
—
Byron Young
Sacks
0.5
over
+136
FanDuel
under
—
Colby Parkinson
Receiving Yards
17.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Colby Parkinson
Receptions
2.5market 52% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Courtland Sutton
Receiving Yards
36.5market 49% over
we project20.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Courtland Sutton
Receptions
3.5market 45% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
+111
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Davante Adams
Receiving Yards
75.5market 50% over
we project88.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Davante Adams
Receptions
5.5market 52% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Evan Engram
Receiving Yards
21.5market 51% over
we project24.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Evan Engram
Receptions
2.5market 53% over
over
-128
FanDuel
under
+102
DraftKings
Harrison Mevis
Kicking Points
7.5market 46% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Carries
12.5market 54% over
we project12.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Receiving Yards
1.5market 50% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-115
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Receptions
0.5market 51% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
J.K. Dobbins
Rushing Yards
50.5market 50% over
we project45.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jaylen Waddle
Receiving Yards
59.5market 50% over
we project40.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jaylen Waddle
Receptions
4.5market 58% over
over
-154
FanDuel
under
+123
DraftKings
Jonah Elliss
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Jordan Whittington
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jordan Whittington
Receptions
1.5market 51% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Josaiah Stewart
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Kobie Turner
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Konata Mumpfield
Receiving Yards
8.5market 49% over
we project28.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
FanDuel
Konata Mumpfield
Receptions
1.5market 43% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-154
FanDuel
Kyren Williams
Carries
12.5market 48% over
we project14.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Kyren Williams
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Kyren Williams
Receptions
2.5market 42% over
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Kyren Williams
Rushing Yards
53.5market 50% over
we project68.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Malcolm Roach
Sacks
0.5
over
+490
FanDuel
under
—
Matthew Stafford
Carries
1.5market 54% over
we project2.2/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+103
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Completions
20.5market 53% over
over
-130
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Interceptions
0.5market 50% over
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Pass Attempts
33.5market 51% over
we project43.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Passing TDs
1.5market 49% over
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Passing Yards
236.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford
Rushing Yards
0.5market 43% over
we project4.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-150
FanDuel
Nate Landman
Sacks
0.5
over
+680
FanDuel
under
—
Nik Bonitto
Sacks
0.5
over
+130
FanDuel
under
—
Pat Bryant
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over
we project33.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Pat Bryant
Receptions
2.5market 51% over3.9pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
+102
FanDuel
Poona Ford
Sacks
0.5
over
+640
FanDuel
under
—
RJ Harvey
Carries
5.5market 56% over
we project3.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-145
DraftKings
under
+113
DraftKings
RJ Harvey
Receiving Yards
17.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
RJ Harvey
Receptions
2.5market 56% over3.0pp between books — shop it
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+113
DraftKings
RJ Harvey
Rushing Yards
19.5market 51% over
we project14.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Terrance Ferguson
Receiving Yards
50.5market 50% over
we project21.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Terrance Ferguson
Receptions
3.5market 57% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Wil Lutz
Kicking Points
6.5market 55% over
over
-139
DraftKings
under
+107
DraftKings
Zach Allen
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.3%
7.3
Yards / att
5.6
374.2
Air yards / gm
154.8
0.143
EPA / dropback
-0.076
+0.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
300.5 yards in 4 of 5325.5 yards in 3 of 5350.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs LA
Bo Nix
DEN · 6 games, 189 attempts
28
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
16th of 34
31.5 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 60.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
31st of 32
LA has allowed 5.7 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards30 attempts × 5.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 17.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 3 of 6175.5 yards in 3 of 6200.5 yards in 2 of 6
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Davante Adams21.4% target share · 22.4 PPR last 4
Puka Nacua21.4% target share · 25.9 PPR last 3
Konata Mumpfield6.7% target share · 5.8 PPR last 4
Jaylen Waddle22.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Courtland Sutton16.2% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Pat Bryant7.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Kyren Williams57.4% of team carries · 23.5 PPR last 4
Blake Corum31.1% of team carries · 8.3 PPR last 4
Ronnie Rivers4.1% of team carries · 3.4 PPR last 1
J.K. Dobbins57.0% of team carries · 10.6 PPR last 4
Tyler Higbee11.9% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Terrance Ferguson5.7% target share · 6.4 PPR last 3
Davis Allen4.3% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
Evan Engram11.0% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
