Las Vegas RaidersatNew Orleans Saints

Final · Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27

Opened

-3.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

-1.5

+2 since open

Total

62.5

Prices archived

131

16 spread · 13 total

Crossed 3 since opening

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

47.1%

52.9%

Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.

6.1%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.

Head to head

Kirk Cousins · LVQB Index componentsTyler Shough · NO

67 · B+

Index

74 · A

34.4

Attempts / gm

41.0

4.4%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

6.0%

65.1%

Completion

QB Index · vs NO

Kirk Cousins

LV · 5 games, 172 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

12th of 34

34.4 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 4.4% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

13th of 34

7.4 yards per attempt · 65.1% completions · 0.191 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

10th of 32

NO has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 254 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record

Open

Opened -3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.

Move

5 reprices since, 11 points of movement in all. It closed -1.5 — the favourite is 2 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -3.5 to +2.5 along the way, retracing 9 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 6 PM ET.

5% 5–2 days out4% Final two days91% Gameday

Biggest move

4 points at once — -1.5 to +2.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 6 PM ET.

Crossed 3

-3.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 5 PM ET — back through 3.

Held 3

It sat on 3 for 3 days, then left it on Sat, Sep 26, 8 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

The life of this number

Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record

Open

Opened 43.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 4 days before kickoff.

Move

2 reprices since, 19 points of movement in all. It closed 62.5 — 19 points higher than the open.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 7 PM ET.

100% Gameday

Biggest move

11 points at once — 51.5 to 62.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 7 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 104 of 194.

No history held for a total of 62.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

390 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 55

Alvin Kamara

Receiving Yards

13.5market 49% over

over

-108

DraftKings

under

-118

DraftKings

Alvin Kamara

Receptions

2.5market 54% over2.5pp between books — shop it

over

-122

FanDuel

under

+105

DraftKings

Alvin Kamara

Rushing Yards

27.5market 50% over

we project21.5/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Ashton Jeanty

Carries

18.5market 47% over

we project17.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+101

DraftKings

under

-130

DraftKings

Ashton Jeanty

Receiving Yards

37.5market 43% over3.4pp between books — shop it

over

+132

FanDuel

under

-156

DraftKings

Ashton Jeanty

Receptions

3.5market 50% over5.3pp between books — shop it

over

-116

DraftKings

under

+108

FanDuel

Ashton Jeanty

Rushing Yards

68.5market 50% over

we project58.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Brock Bowers

Receiving Yards

120.5market 49% over

we project104.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-110

FanDuel

under

-120

DraftKings

Brock Bowers

Receptions

4.5market 52% over

over

-122

FanDuel

under

-104

DraftKings

Bryce Lance

Receiving Yards

15.5market 50% over

we project11.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Bryce Lance

Receptions

1.5market 44% over4.3pp between books — shop it

over

+112

DraftKings

under

-125

FanDuel

Cameron Jordan

Sacks

0.5

over

+235

FanDuel

under

—

Carl Granderson

Sacks

0.5

over

+182

FanDuel

under

—

Chase Young

Sacks

0.5

over

+106

FanDuel

under

—

Chris Olave

Receiving Yards

76.5market 50% over

we project107.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Chris Olave

Receptions

5.5market 56% over3.4pp between books — shop it

over

-149

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Daniel Carlson

Kicking Points

6.5market 55% over

over

-141

DraftKings

under

+109

DraftKings

Devaughn Vele

Receiving Yards

46.5market 50% over

we project50.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Devaughn Vele

Receptions

4.5market 43% over

over

+120

FanDuel

under

-154

DraftKings

Jack Bech

Receiving Yards

14.5market 50% over

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Jack Bech

Receptions

1.5market 51% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Jalen Nailor

Receiving Yards

16.5market 31% over1.9pp between books — shop it

we project17.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+205

DraftKings

under

-260

FanDuel

Jalen Nailor

Receptions

2.5market 43% over

over

+118

DraftKings

under

-152

DraftKings

Juwan Johnson

Receiving Yards

39.5market 50% over

we project49.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-118

FanDuel

Juwan Johnson

Receptions

3.5market 45% over3.1pp between books — shop it

over

+111

DraftKings

under

-130

FanDuel

Kirk Cousins

Completions

25.5market 51% over

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Interceptions

0.5market 32% over

over

+190

DraftKings

under

-270

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Pass Attempts

37.5market 50% over

we project34.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Passing TDs

1.5market 54% over18.2pp between books — shop it

over

+148

FanDuel

under

+100

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins

Passing Yards

211.5market 50% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Kirk Cousins

Rushing Yards

1.5market 48% over

we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-102

FanDuel

under

-123

DraftKings

Kwity Paye

Sacks

0.5

over

+210

FanDuel

under

—

Matt Gay

Kicking Points

6.5market 49% over

over

-110

DraftKings

under

-118

DraftKings

Maxx Crosby

Sacks

0.5

over

-136

FanDuel

under

—

Michael Mayer

Receiving Yards

32.5market 32% over3.7pp between books — shop it

we project34.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+190

DraftKings

under

-220

FanDuel

Michael Mayer

Receptions

2.5market 44% over3.0pp between books — shop it

over

+115

DraftKings

under

-136

FanDuel

Mike Washington Jr.

Rushing Yards

15.5market 50% over

we project25.0/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Noah Fant

Receiving Yards

33.5market 31% over6.6pp between books — shop it

we project18.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+205

DraftKings

under

-210

FanDuel

Noah Fant

Receptions

1.5market 48% over4.0pp between books — shop it

over

+112

FanDuel

under

-122

DraftKings

Tonka Hemingway

Sacks

0.5

over

+310

FanDuel

under

—

Travis Etienne

Receiving Yards

4.5market 49% over

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-118

FanDuel

Travis Etienne

Receptions

1.5market 56% over

over

-148

FanDuel

under

+112

FanDuel

Travis Etienne

Rushing Yards

51.5market 51% over

we project42.7/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-118

FanDuel

under

-112

FanDuel

Travis Etienne Jr.

Carries

10.5market 49% over

we project10.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-110

DraftKings

under

-118

DraftKings

Travis Etienne Jr.

Receiving Yards

9.5market 49% over

over

-109

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

Travis Etienne Jr.

Receptions

1.5market 56% over

over

-149

DraftKings

under

+117

DraftKings

Travis Etienne Jr.

Rushing Yards

39.5market 50% over

we project42.7/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-115

DraftKings

Tre Tucker

Receiving Yards

43.5market 37% over4.6pp between books — shop it

we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+150

DraftKings

under

-166

FanDuel

Tre Tucker

Receptions

3.5market 47% over3.7pp between books — shop it

over

+116

FanDuel

under

-128

DraftKings

Tyler Shough

Completions

22.5market 49% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

Tyler Shough

Interceptions

0.5market 31% over

over

+200

DraftKings

under

-278

DraftKings

Tyler Shough

Pass Attempts

33.5market 47% over

we project41.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Tyler Shough

Passing TDs

1.5market 46% over2.3pp between books — shop it

over

+114

FanDuel

under

-133

DraftKings

Tyler Shough

Passing Yards

267.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Tyler Shough

Rushing Yards

37.5market 49% over

we project14.4/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-108

FanDuel

under

-122

FanDuel

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.