Final · Arizona Cardinals 30, San Francisco 49ers 36
Opened
-8.5
First seen Sep 24
Closed
-8.5
Unmoved
Total
63.5
Prices archived
167
18 spread · 19 total
6 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
SF-2.5DraftKings
ARI+8.5FanDuel
Over56.5DraftKings
Under63.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
ARI
3.1%
SF
96.9%
We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.
3.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 103.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jacoby Brissett · ARIQB Index componentsBrock Purdy · SF
48 · C
Index
68 · B+
39.8
Attempts / gm
28.4
5.7%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
2.1%
66.3%
Completion
QB Index · vs SF
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · 5 games, 199 attempts
48
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
4th of 34
39.8 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 5.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
25th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 66.3% completions · -0.020 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
30th of 32
SF has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 210 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened -8.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 4 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 22 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from -17.5 to -6.5 along the way, retracing 22 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 5 PM ET.
5% Final two days95% Gameday
Biggest move
11 points at once — -6.5 to -17.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 5 PM ET.
Crossed 7
-7.5 to -6.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET — back through 7.
Crossed 7
-6.5 to -17.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 5 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
-6.5 to -17.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 5 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record
Open
Opened 47.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 4 days before kickoff.
Move
4 reprices since, 18 points of movement in all. It closed 63.5 — 16 points higher than the open. It ranged from 47.5 to 63.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 7 PM ET.
100% Gameday
Biggest move
14 points at once — 49.5 to 63.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 7 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 8.5 covered 46 of 94 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 73 of 94.
The total
Totals of 63.5 went over 1 of 1 times.
Only 1 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 48
Brock Purdy
Completions
21.5market 50% over
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Interceptions
0.5market 45% over
over
+109
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Pass Attempts
30.5market 52% over
we project28.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-103
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Passing TDs
1.5market 59% over
over
-160
FanDuel
under
+131
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Passing Yards
237.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Rushing Yards
17.5market 49% over
we project25.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Chad Ryland
Kicking Points
5.5market 55% over
over
-139
DraftKings
under
+107
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Carries
13.5market 49% over
we project12.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey
Receptions
4.5market 26% over39.1pp between books — shop it
over
+475
DraftKings
under
+102
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Rushing Yards
75.5
we project57.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+160
DraftKings
under
—
Deebo Samuel
Receiving Yards
39.5market 49% over
we project41.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Deebo Samuel
Receptions
3.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+124
FanDuel
Deebo Samuel
Rushing Yards
4.5market 51% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Eddy Pineiro
Kicking Points
8.5market 48% over
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Fred Warner
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
George Kittle
Receiving Yards
62.5
we project53.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+370
DraftKings
under
—
George Kittle
Receptions
3.5market 59% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
-169
DraftKings
under
+140
FanDuel
Jacoby Brissett
Completions
21.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Interceptions
0.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Pass Attempts
33.5market 48% over
we project39.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Passing TDs
1.5market 38% over
over
+148
DraftKings
under
-192
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Passing Yards
274.5market 50% over30.0pp between books — shop it
over
+330
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jacoby Brissett
Rushing Yards
7.5market 50% over
we project12.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love
Carries
11.5market 48% over
we project13.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love
Receiving Yards
14.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love
Receptions
2.5market 48% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jeremiyah Love
Rushing Yards
90.5
we project49.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+450
DraftKings
under
—
Josh Sweat
Sacks
0.5
over
+154
FanDuel
under
—
Kaelon Black
Rushing Yards
32.5market 49% over
we project27.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Keion White
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Kendrick Bourne
Receiving Yards
21.5market 50% over
we project44.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Kendrick Bourne
Receptions
2.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-118
DraftKings
Kyle Juszczyk
Receiving Yards
8.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Kyle Juszczyk
Receptions
1.5market 36% over
over
+160
DraftKings
under
-208
DraftKings
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Receiving Yards
33.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project21.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Receptions
2.5market 45% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+118
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Michael Wilson
Receiving Yards
46.5market 50% over
we project57.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Michael Wilson
Receptions
3.5market 59% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+128
DraftKings
Mike Evans
Receiving Yards
55.5market 50% over
we project65.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Mike Evans
Receptions
4.5market 44% over
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Osa Odighizuwa
Sacks
0.5
over
-102
FanDuel
under
—
Trey McBride
Receiving Yards
67.5market 50% over
we project61.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Trey McBride
Receptions
7.5market 45% over
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-139
DraftKings
Tyler Allgeier
Receiving Yards
7.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tyler Allgeier
Rushing Yards
32.5market 50% over
we project23.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Walter Nolen III
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Zaven Collins
Sacks
0.5
over
+470
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
69.0%
5.6
Yards / att
8.4
284.2
Air yards / gm
220.6
-0.020
EPA / dropback
0.397
+1.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+6.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs ARI
Brock Purdy
SF · 5 games, 142 attempts
68
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
25th of 34
28.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 2.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
4th of 34
8.4 yards per attempt · 69.0% completions · 0.397 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
1st of 32
ARI has allowed 9.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 234 yards28 attempts × 8.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 36.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
4 key-number crossings in all.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Michael Wilson26.3% target share · 13.4 PPR last 4
Kendrick Bourne11.3% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Jalen Brooks4.1% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Mike Evans25.4% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
Deebo Samuel Sr.14.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Demarcus Robinson4.3% target share · 9.7 PPR last 2
Jeremiyah Love57.8% of team carries · 9.5 PPR last 4
Tyler Allgeier30.2% of team carries · 6.3 PPR last 4
Christian McCaffrey47.7% of team carries · 19.4 PPR last 4
Kaelon Black28.9% of team carries · 1.8 PPR last 4
Trey McBride28.9% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Elijah Higgins4.1% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
George Kittle20.3% target share · 17.2 PPR last 4