Final · Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33
Opened
+3.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
+1.5
-2 since open
Total
57.5
Prices archived
164
21 spread · 20 total
Crossed 3 since opening4 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
WSH+1.5DraftKings
SEA+2.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
SEA
46.3%
WSH
53.7%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Sam Darnold · SEAQB Index componentsJayden Daniels · WAS
38 · D
Index
21 · F
29.8
Attempts / gm
25.3
8.6%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.3%
60.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs WAS
Sam Darnold
SEA · 5 games, 149 attempts
38
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
20th of 34
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 8.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.9 yards per attempt · 60.4% completions · -0.135 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
17th of 32
WAS has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 209 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened +3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 22 points of movement in all. It closed +1.5 — the favourite is 2 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -2.5 to +8.5 along the way, retracing 20 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
18% 5–2 days out82% Gameday
Biggest move
6 points at once — +3.5 to -2.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 7
+8.5 to +3.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — back through 7.
Crossed 3
+3.5 to -2.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET — back through 3.
Held 7
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened 40.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 3 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 23 points of movement in all. It closed 57.5 — 17 points higher than the open. It ranged from 37.5 to 57.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
100% Gameday
Biggest move
10 points at once — 47.5 to 57.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 57.5 went over 3 of 4 times.
Only 4 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 53
A.J. Barner
Receiving Yards
57.5market 51% over
we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
A.J. Barner
Receptions
3.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
AJ Barner
Receiving Yards
59.5market 50% over
we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
AJ Barner
Receptions
2.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Antonio Williams
Receiving Yards
15.5market 49% over16.0pp between books — shop it
we project31.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+178
FanDuel
under
-118
DraftKings
Antonio Williams
Receptions
1.5market 40% over19.9pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
+124
FanDuel
Cooper Kupp
Receiving Yards
48.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project25.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Cooper Kupp
Receptions
2.5market 41% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
+144
FanDuel
under
-167
DraftKings
Da'Ron Payne
Sacks
0.5
over
+400
FanDuel
under
—
DeMarcus Lawrence
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Drew Stevens
Kicking Points
5.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Dyami Brown
Receiving Yards
0.5market 49% over
we project17.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Dyami Brown
Receptions
0.5market 58% over
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+120
DraftKings
Elijah Arroyo
Receiving Yards
3.5market 51% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Elijah Arroyo
Receptions
0.5market 50% over6.1pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Emanuel Wilson
Rushing Yards
34.5market 50% over
we project50.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ernest Jones
Sacks
0.5
over
+520
FanDuel
under
—
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Carries
18.5
we project13.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-175
DraftKings
under
—
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Rushing Yards
43.5market 50% over
we project47.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Jadarian Price
Carries
10.5market 53% over
we project9.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Jadarian Price
Receiving Yards
7.5market 45% over4.0pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Jadarian Price
Receptions
1.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jadarian Price
Rushing Yards
39.5market 50% over44.2pp between books — shop it
we project39.7/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jarran Reed
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Jason Myers
Kicking Points
7.5market 53% over
over
-127
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receiving Yards
86.5market 50% over
we project116.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receptions
6.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Leonard Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
-108
FanDuel
under
—
Marcus Mariota
Completions
15.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Interceptions
0.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Pass Attempts
29.5market 47% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Passing TDs
0.5market 61% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
-164
FanDuel
under
+140
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Passing Yards
172.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Rushing Yards
23.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Odafe Oweh
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Rachaad White
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Rachaad White
Receptions
2.5market 53% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Rachaad White
Rushing Yards
13.5market 39% over18.8pp between books — shop it
we project29.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+190
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Rashid Shaheed
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
we project19.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Rashid Shaheed
Receptions
2.5market 46% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Sam Darnold
Completions
20.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Interceptions
0.5market 34% over
over
+175
DraftKings
under
-244
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Pass Attempts
28.5market 53% over
we project24.5/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Passing TDs
1.5market 47% over
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Passing Yards
221.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Rushing Yards
6.5market 51% over
we project4.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Sonny Styles
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Stefon Diggs
Receiving Yards
35.5market 50% over
we project42.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Stefon Diggs
Receptions
3.5market 40% over17.8pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
+114
FanDuel
Terry McLaurin
Receiving Yards
41.5market 50% over
we project50.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Terry McLaurin
Receptions
3.5market 44% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-132
FanDuel
Tory Horton
Receiving Yards
5.5
over
-108
DraftKings
under
—
Tory Horton
Receptions
1.5
over
+263
DraftKings
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.5%
6.9
Yards / att
6.0
215.4
Air yards / gm
224.3
-0.135
EPA / dropback
0.021
-4.6
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 29.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs SEA
Jayden Daniels
WAS · 3 games, 76 attempts
21
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
29th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 7.3% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.0 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.021 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
32nd of 32
SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 181 yards30 attempts × 6.0 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 28.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 2 of 3175.5 yards in 1 of 3200.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
It sat on 7 for 12 hours, then left it on Thu, Sep 24, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34.9% target share · 24 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed14.8% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp13.2% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Stefon Diggs20.1% target share · 13.3 PPR last 4
Terry McLaurin17.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Antonio Williams14.3% target share · 5 PPR last 4
Emanuel Wilson54.0% of team carries · 11.7 PPR last 4
George Holani19.3% of team carries · 6.7 PPR last 4
Jadarian Price17.4% of team carries · 4.7 PPR last 3
Jacory Croskey-Merritt47.9% of team carries · 8.1 PPR last 4
AJ Barner12.7% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
Chig Okonkwo8.4% target share · 5.4 PPR last 3
John Bates3.9% target share · 2.1 PPR last 3
