Final · Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30
Opened
+1.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-2.5
-4 since open
Total
62.5
Prices archived
120
18 spread · 15 total
0.5 points short of 3
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CIN
42.2%
PIT
57.8%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Joe Burrow · CINQB Index componentsAaron Rodgers · PIT
73 · A
Index
55 · B
37.8
Attempts / gm
36.8
4.5%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.1%
71.4%
QB Index · vs PIT
Joe Burrow
CIN · 5 games, 189 attempts
73
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
7th of 34
37.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 71.4% completions · 0.166 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
11th of 32
PIT has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 260 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 18 points of movement in all. It closed -2.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -2.5 to +3.5 along the way, retracing 14 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
11% 5–2 days out89% Gameday
Biggest move
5 points at once — +3.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 1 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+1.5 to +3.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 3
+3.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 1 PM ET — back through 3.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 27 points of movement in all. It closed 62.5 — 15 points higher than the open. It ranged from 42.5 to 62.5 along the way, retracing 12 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
4% 5+ days out15% 5–2 days out81% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — 48.5 to 56.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
No history held for a total of 62.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 56
Aaron Rodgers
Completions
21.5
over
-208
DraftKings
under
—
Aaron Rodgers
Interceptions
0.5market 32% over
over
+190
DraftKings
under
-263
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Pass Attempts
31.5
we project36.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-312
DraftKings
under
—
Aaron Rodgers
Passing TDs
1.5market 36% over
over
+161
DraftKings
under
-205
FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers
Passing Yards
295.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers
Rushing Yards
-0.5market 60% over4.8pp between books — shop it
we project3.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-185
DraftKings
under
+168
FanDuel
Alex Highsmith
Sacks
0.5
over
-138
FanDuel
under
—
Boye Mafe
Sacks
0.5
over
+158
FanDuel
under
—
Cameron Heyward
Sacks
0.5
over
+235
FanDuel
under
—
Cashius Howell
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
Chase Brown
Carries
13.5
we project14.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-147
DraftKings
under
—
Chase Brown
Receiving Yards
17.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Chase Brown
Receptions
3.5market 44% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+114
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Chase Brown
Rushing Yards
49.5market 51% over5.4pp between books — shop it
we project49.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Chris Boswell
Kicking Points
6.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Darnell Washington
Receiving Yards
27.5market 51% over2.3pp between books — shop it
we project26.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Darnell Washington
Receptions
1.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Derrick Harmon
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Dexter Lawrence II
Sacks
0.5
over
+194
FanDuel
under
—
DK Metcalf
Receiving Yards
43.5market 50% over
we project45.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
DK Metcalf
Receptions
4.5market 45% over3.1pp between books — shop it
over
+111
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Drew Sample
Receiving Yards
0.5market 33% over
over
+182
FanDuel
under
-250
FanDuel
Drew Sample
Receptions
1.5market 36% over17.7pp between books — shop it
over
+330
DraftKings
under
+140
DraftKings
Erick All
Receiving Yards
5.5market 51% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Erick All
Receptions
0.5market 55% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Evan McPherson
Kicking Points
7.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Ja'Marr Chase
Receiving Yards
75.5market 50% over
we project57.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Ja'Marr Chase
Receptions
6.5market 53% over
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+102
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Carries
15.5market 51% over
we project14.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Receiving Yards
49.5market 21% over
over
+350
DraftKings
under
-526
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Receptions
3.5market 21% over38.5pp between books — shop it
over
+340
DraftKings
under
+118
FanDuel
Jaylen Warren
Rushing Yards
57.5market 50% over
we project82.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Joe Burrow
Completions
31.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Interceptions
0.5market 47% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Pass Attempts
39.5market 53% over
we project37.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Passing TDs
1.5market 48% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-104
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Joe Burrow
Passing Yards
251.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Rushing Yards
13.5market 23% over21.5pp between books — shop it
we project9.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+310
DraftKings
under
-158
FanDuel
Jonathan Allen
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Keeanu Benton
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
we project29.7/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receptions
2.5market 18% over40.6pp between books — shop it
over
+425
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Mike Gesicki
Receiving Yards
24.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project39.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Mike Gesicki
Receptions
2.5market 49% over3.5pp between books — shop it
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Myles Murphy
Sacks
0.5
over
+194
FanDuel
under
—
Nick Herbig
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Pat Freiermuth
Receiving Yards
22.5market 50% over
we project33.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth
Receptions
3.5market 55% over
over
-143
DraftKings
under
+111
DraftKings
Roman Wilson
Receiving Yards
60.5market 19% over
we project37.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+390
DraftKings
under
-588
DraftKings
Roman Wilson
Receptions
2.5market 45% over
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Samaje Perine
Receiving Yards
9.5market 51% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Samaje Perine
Receptions
1.5market 48% over3.3pp between books — shop it
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Samaje Perine
Rushing Yards
16.5market 50% over
we project22.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
T.J. Watt
Sacks
0.5
over
-166
FanDuel
under
—
Tee Higgins
Receiving Yards
53.5market 50% over
we project84.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tee Higgins
Receptions
4.5market 45% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
+118
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
59.8%
7.2
Yards / att
6.7
270.4
Air yards / gm
315.0
0.166
EPA / dropback
-0.071
+5.4
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 30.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CIN
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · 5 games, 184 attempts
55
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
10th of 34
36.8 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.7 yards per attempt · 59.8% completions · -0.071 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
13th of 32
CIN has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 232 yards35 attempts × 6.7 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 32.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tee Higgins23.1% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Ja'Marr Chase20.4% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Dohnte Meyers9.7% target share · 6.1 PPR last 4
DK Metcalf21.1% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Roman Wilson14.3% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Germie Bernard11.4% target share · 6.8 PPR last 4
Chase Brown64.5% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
Samaje Perine24.5% of team carries · 5.5 PPR last 4
Jaylen Warren73.7% of team carries · 20.7 PPR last 4
Rico Dowdle15.8% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 2
Mike Gesicki9.1% target share · 13 PPR last 4
Tanner Hudson3.8% target share · 4.1 PPR last 4
Drew Sample3.2% target share · 2.5 PPR last 3
Pat Freiermuth14.9% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
