Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
TEN
58.9%
NYG
41.1%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Cam Ward · TENQB Index componentsJameis Winston · NYG
37 · D
Index
53 · B
31.0
Attempts / gm
33.0
6.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.7%
63.2%
QB Index · vs NYG
Cam Ward
TEN · 5 games, 155 attempts
37
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
17th of 34
31.0 attempts per game · team runs 53 plays at 59% pass · sacked on 6.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · -0.185 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
23rd of 32
NYG has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 29.5 points of movement in all. It closed +1.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -13.5 to +1.5 along the way, retracing 25 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET.
5% 5–2 days out95% Gameday
Biggest move
15 points at once — -13.5 to +1.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-2.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 1 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
-3.5 to -7.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 7
-7.5 to -6.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — back through 7.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened 39.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 3 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 25 points of movement in all. It closed 24.5 — 15 points lower than the open. It ranged from 19.5 to 39.5 along the way, retracing 10 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
4% 5–2 days out4% Final two days92% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — 36.5 to 29.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
No history held for a total of 24.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 65
Abdul Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
-122
FanDuel
under
—
Arvell Reese
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
Brian Burns
Sacks
0.5
over
-166
FanDuel
under
—
Calvin Ridley
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Calvin Ridley
Receptions
1.5market 43% over
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Cam Skattebo
Receiving Yards
40.5market 34% over
over
+178
FanDuel
under
-245
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Receptions
2.5market 41% over
over
+130
FanDuel
under
-174
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Rushing Yards
73.5market 50% over
we project58.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Passing TDs
0.5market 61% over
over
-188
FanDuel
under
+140
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Passing Yards
135.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Rushing Yards
1.5market 49% over
we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Cameron Skattebo
Carries
19.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Receptions
2.5market 42% over
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-167
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Rushing Yards
39.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Carries
3.5
over
-105
DraftKings
under
—
Cameron Ward
Completions
14.5market 53% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Interceptions
0.5market 39% over
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-192
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Pass Attempts
26.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Passing TDs
0.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Passing Yards
126.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Rushing Yards
7.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Carnell Tate
Receiving Yards
37.5market 51% over
we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Carnell Tate
Receptions
3.5market 49% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+100
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Chauncey Golston
Sacks
0.5
over
+188
FanDuel
under
—
Darnell Mooney
Receiving Yards
5.5market 50% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Darnell Mooney
Receptions
1.5market 48% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
+110
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Devin Singletary
Receiving Yards
6.5market 52% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Devin Singletary
Receptions
1.5market 46% over
over
+107
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Devin Singletary
Rushing Yards
12.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Dominic Zvada
Kicking Points
6.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Elic Ayomanor
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
we project26.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Elic Ayomanor
Receptions
1.5market 43% over
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Gunnar Helm
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project12.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Gunnar Helm
Receptions
2.5market 53% over
over
-130
FanDuel
under
-102
FanDuel
Isaiah Likely
Receiving Yards
29.5market 50% over
we project56.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Isaiah Likely
Receptions
3.5market 41% over11.7pp between books — shop it
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Jacob Martin
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Jameis Winston
Completions
15.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Interceptions
0.5market 42% over
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-167
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Pass Attempts
26.5market 47% over
we project33.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Passing TDs
0.5market 53% over14.4pp between books — shop it
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+188
FanDuel
Jameis Winston
Passing Yards
200.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jameis Winston
Rushing Yards
5.5market 50% over
we project10.5/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-106
FanDuel
under
-112
DraftKings
Jeffery Simmons
Sacks
0.5
over
+102
FanDuel
under
—
Jermaine Johnson II
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Joey Slye
Kicking Points
6.5market 48% over
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
John Franklin-Myers
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Sacks
0.5
over
+198
FanDuel
under
—
Malachi Fields
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Malachi Fields
Receptions
2.5market 39% over
over
+148
FanDuel
under
-192
DraftKings
Malik Nabers
Receiving Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project65.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Malik Nabers
Receptions
4.5market 51% over5.1pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Najee Harris
Rushing Yards
18.5market 50% over
we project24.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Shelby Harris
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Tony Pollard
Carries
12.5market 45% over
we project13.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Tony Pollard
Receiving Yards
6.5market 50% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Tony Pollard
Receptions
1.5market 59% over22.3pp between books — shop it
over
+144
FanDuel
under
+125
DraftKings
Tony Pollard
Rushing Yards
55.5market 50% over
we project54.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tyjae Spears
Carries
5.5market 51% over
we project3.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
Tyjae Spears
Receiving Yards
7.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Tyjae Spears
Receptions
1.5
over
-116
DraftKings
under
—
Tyjae Spears
Rushing Yards
9.5market 49% over2.9pp between books — shop it
we project13.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receiving Yards
31.5market 50% over
we project35.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-112
DraftKings
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receptions
3.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
57.6%
5.8
Yards / att
6.1
215.8
Air yards / gm
317.5
-0.185
EPA / dropback
-0.057
+2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
-7.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 13.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 4 of 5175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs TEN
Jameis Winston
NYG · 4 games, 132 attempts
53
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
13th of 34
33.0 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 7.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.6% completions · -0.057 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
6th of 32
TEN has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 187 yards31 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 11.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
8 key-number crossings in all.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 57 days, then left it on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Carnell Tate25.7% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Wan'Dale Robinson20.8% target share · 10.7 PPR last 4
Elic Ayomanor8.3% target share · 4.2 PPR last 4
Malik Nabers28.0% target share · 15.3 PPR last 4
Darnell Mooney10.4% target share · 3.8 PPR last 4
Malachi Fields10.4% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Tony Pollard63.6% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Tyjae Spears15.9% of team carries · 5.2 PPR last 4
Nicholas Singleton6.5% of team carries · 0.6 PPR last 2
Cam Skattebo57.4% of team carries · 9.3 PPR last 4
Gunnar Helm9.7% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
Daniel Bellinger4.9% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
Isaiah Likely29.3% target share · 14.4 PPR last 4
Theo Johnson5.5% target share · 3.9 PPR last 4
