New England PatriotsatJacksonville Jaguars

Final · New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35

Opened

-1.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

-28.5

-27 since open

Total

41.5

Prices archived

105

17 spread · 18 total

Crossed 3 & 7 & 10 since opening15 point gap between books right now

Where the best number is

JAX-13.5FanDuel

NE+28.5DraftKings

Over33.5FanDuel

Under41.5DraftKings

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

8.6%

JAX

91.4%

Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.

5.9%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Drake Maye · NEQB Index componentsTrevor Lawrence · JAX

65 · B+

Index

53 · B

30.2

Attempts / gm

28.6

6.8%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

6.5%

65.6%

Completion

QB Index · vs JAX

Drake Maye

NE · 5 games, 151 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

19th of 34

30.2 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

8th of 34

8.1 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · 0.126 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

8th of 32

JAX has allowed 7.7 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 238 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record

Open

Opened -1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.

Move

6 reprices since, 30 points of movement in all. It closed -28.5 — the favourite is 27 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -28.5 to -1.5 along the way, retracing 3 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.

5% 5–2 days out95% Gameday

Biggest move

14 points at once — -14.5 to -28.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET.

Crossed 3

-1.5 to -5.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.

Crossed 7

-5.5 to -8.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.

Crossed 10

-8.5 to -14.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record

Open

Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.

Move

7 reprices since, 20 points of movement in all. It closed 41.5 — 4 points lower than the open. It ranged from 35.5 to 46.5 along the way, retracing 16 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.

5% 5–2 days out10% Final two days85% Gameday

Biggest move

6 points at once — 41.5 to 35.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

No history held for a spread of 28.5 — we do not round it to a nearby number, because 28.5 and the rung beside it are different questions.

The total

Totals of 41.5 went over 126 of 264 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

390 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 58

Andres Borregales

Kicking Points

7.5market 45% over

over

+108

DraftKings

under

-139

DraftKings

Arik Armstead

Sacks

0.5

over

+194

FanDuel

under

—

Bhayshul Tuten

Carries

12.5market 51% over

we project16.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Bhayshul Tuten

Receiving Yards

6.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Bhayshul Tuten

Receptions

1.5market 61% over10.8pp between books — shop it

over

-122

FanDuel

under

+140

DraftKings

Bhayshul Tuten

Rushing Yards

56.5market 50% over

we project69.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Brenton Strange

Receiving Yards

27.5market 50% over

we project47.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Brenton Strange

Receptions

2.5market 60% over2.1pp between books — shop it

over

-175

DraftKings

under

+142

FanDuel

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receiving Yards

27.5market 50% over

we project21.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receptions

2.5market 56% over2.7pp between books — shop it

over

-136

FanDuel

under

+110

DraftKings

Cam Little

Kicking Points

7.5market 48% over

over

-104

DraftKings

under

-123

DraftKings

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Rushing Yards

20.5market 49% over

we project22.6/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-110

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Christian Barmore

Sacks

0.5

over

+220

FanDuel

under

—

Daquan Jones

Sacks

0.5

over

+320

FanDuel

under

—

Demario Douglas

Receiving Yards

28.5market 51% over

we project29.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-110

DraftKings

Demario Douglas

Receptions

2.5market 39% over21.6pp between books — shop it

over

+140

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Dennis Gardeck

Sacks

0.5

over

+230

FanDuel

under

—

Drake Maye

Carries

4.5market 58% over

we project6.0/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-167

DraftKings

under

+120

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Completions

19.5market 53% over

over

-135

DraftKings

under

+100

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Interceptions

0.5market 45% over

over

+115

DraftKings

under

-135

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Pass Attempts

31.5market 51% over

we project30.2/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Passing TDs

1.5market 41% over

over

+136

FanDuel

under

-167

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Passing Yards

218.5market 50% over

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Drake Maye

Rushing Yards

26.5market 50% over2.2pp between books — shop it

we project32.2/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-106

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

Elijah Ponder

Sacks

0.5

over

+162

FanDuel

under

—

Foyesade Oluokun

Sacks

0.5

over

+390

FanDuel

under

—

Gabe Jacas

Sacks

0.5

over

+235

FanDuel

under

—

Hunter Henry

Receiving Yards

29.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it

we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

Hunter Henry

Receptions

3.5market 57% over1.6pp between books — shop it

over

-144

FanDuel

under

+120

DraftKings

Jakobi Meyers

Receiving Yards

34.5market 50% over

we project40.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Jakobi Meyers

Receptions

3.5market 40% over7.9pp between books — shop it

over

+135

DraftKings

under

-130

FanDuel

Josh Hines-Allen

Sacks

0.5

over

-182

FanDuel

under

—

Kyle Williams

Receiving Yards

7.5market 50% over

we project27.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Kyle Williams

Receptions

0.5market 52% over7.7pp between books — shop it

over

-125

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Mack Hollins

Receiving Yards

33.5market 50% over

we project52.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Mack Hollins

Receptions

2.5market 56% over3.7pp between books — shop it

over

-147

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Milton Williams

Sacks

0.5

over

+220

FanDuel

under

—

Parker Washington

Receiving Yards

66.5market 50% over

we project70.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Parker Washington

Receptions

5.5market 44% over

over

+110

DraftKings

under

-140

FanDuel

Rhamondre Stevenson

Carries

7.5market 47% over

we project11.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson

Receiving Yards

12.5market 50% over

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-108

FanDuel

Rhamondre Stevenson

Receptions

2.5market 56% over10.8pp between books — shop it

over

+102

FanDuel

under

+110

DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson

Rushing Yards

34.5market 50% over

we project45.4/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Romeo Doubs

Receiving Yards

22.5market 50% over

we project43.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Romeo Doubs

Receptions

3.5market 45% over3.3pp between books — shop it

over

+120

FanDuel

under

-141

DraftKings

Travis Hunter

Receiving Yards

0.5market 39% over7.7pp between books — shop it

over

+194

FanDuel

under

-192

DraftKings

Travis Hunter

Receptions

0.5market 41% over18.8pp between books — shop it

over

+125

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Travon Walker

Sacks

0.5

over

-146

FanDuel

under

—

TreVeyon Henderson

Carries

11.5market 48% over

we project10.5/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-125

DraftKings

TreVeyon Henderson

Receiving Yards

12.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-116

DraftKings

TreVeyon Henderson

Receptions

1.5market 51% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-110

DraftKings

TreVeyon Henderson

Rushing Yards

41.5market 49% over

we project40.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-110

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Trevor Lawrence

Completions

21.5market 53% over

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Interceptions

1.5market 38% over

over

+145

DraftKings

under

-196

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Pass Attempts

32.5market 53% over

we project28.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Passing TDs

1.5market 67% over18.6pp between books — shop it

over

-112

FanDuel

under

+180

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Passing Yards

228.5market 50% over

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Trevor Lawrence

Rushing Yards

16.5market 50% over

we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-113

FanDuel

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.