Crossed 3 since opening4 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
IND-1.5FanDuel
HOU+5.5DraftKings
Over33.5FanDuel
Under34.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
HOU
27.7%
IND
72.3%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
6.2%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.2%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
C.J. Stroud · HOUQB Index componentsDaniel Jones · IND
76 · A
Index
47 · C
37.0
Attempts / gm
35.2
7.0%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.9%
64.3%
QB Index · vs IND
C.J. Stroud
HOU · 5 games, 185 attempts
76
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 61% pass · sacked on 7.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 64.3% completions · 0.089 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
4th of 32
IND has allowed 8.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 262 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 21 points of movement in all. It closed -5.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -9.5 to +2.5 along the way, retracing 14 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
10% 5–2 days out90% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — -2.5 to -9.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-2.5 to -9.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
-2.5 to -9.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 7
-9.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — back through 7.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record
Open
Opened 42.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 3 days before kickoff.
Move
4 reprices since, 13 points of movement in all. It closed 33.5 — 9 points lower than the open. It ranged from 33.5 to 42.5 along the way, retracing 4 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
100% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — 41.5 to 33.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 33.5 went over 18 of 35 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 55
Arden Key
Sacks
0.5
over
+124
FanDuel
under
—
C.J. Stroud
Completions
18.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Interceptions
0.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Pass Attempts
32.5market 51% over
we project37.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Passing TDs
1.5market 33% over7.6pp between books — shop it
over
+185
DraftKings
under
-176
FanDuel
C.J. Stroud
Passing Yards
239.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Rushing Yards
8.5market 50% over
we project14.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Dalton Schultz
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project48.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Dalton Schultz
Receptions
5.5market 43% over
over
+117
DraftKings
under
-148
FanDuel
Daniel Jones
Carries
4.5market 55% over
we project2.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Completions
25.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Interceptions
0.5market 34% over
over
+170
DraftKings
under
-238
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Pass Attempts
37.5market 53% over
we project35.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Passing TDs
1.5market 56% over22.1pp between books — shop it
over
+162
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Passing Yards
218.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Rushing Yards
6.5market 51% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project5.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Danielle Hunter
Sacks
0.5
over
-148
FanDuel
under
—
Darius Slayton
Receiving Yards
10.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Darius Slayton
Receptions
1.5market 36% over
over
+162
DraftKings
under
-213
DraftKings
David Montgomery
Carries
9.5market 53% over
we project10.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
David Montgomery
Receiving Yards
8.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
David Montgomery
Receptions
1.5market 41% over8.4pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
David Montgomery
Rushing Yards
49.5market 50% over
we project27.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
DeForest Buckner
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Grover Stewart
Sacks
0.5
over
+370
FanDuel
under
—
Jadeveon Clowney
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Jared Wayne
Receiving Yards
11.5market 51% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project16.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jared Wayne
Receptions
1.5market 39% over9.8pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-125
FanDuel
Jaylin Noel
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project45.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Jaylin Noel
Receptions
2.5market 61% over17.2pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
+140
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Carries
21.5market 50% over
we project20.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Receiving Yards
20.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor
Receptions
2.5market 59% over
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+128
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Rushing Yards
81.5market 50% over
we project79.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Josh Downs
Receiving Yards
49.5market 50% over
we project49.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Josh Downs
Receptions
4.5market 54% over
over
-137
DraftKings
under
+108
FanDuel
Ka'imi Fairbairn
Kicking Points
7.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Kayshon Boutte
Receiving Yards
35.5market 50% over
we project30.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Kayshon Boutte
Receptions
2.5market 40% over13.6pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Keenan Allen
Receiving Yards
24.5market 50% over
we project36.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Keenan Allen
Receptions
3.5market 41% over8.4pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Laiatu Latu
Sacks
0.5
over
+110
FanDuel
under
—
Laquon Treadwell
Receiving Yards
16.5market 50% over
we project31.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Laquon Treadwell
Receptions
1.5market 42% over6.8pp between books — shop it
over
+124
DraftKings
under
-125
FanDuel
Sheldon Rankins
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Spencer Shrader
Kicking Points
6.5market 53% over
over
-127
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Tyler Warren
Receiving Yards
46.5market 50% over
we project42.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tyler Warren
Receptions
4.5market 51% over3.4pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Will Anderson Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
-128
FanDuel
under
—
Woody Marks
Carries
5.5market 55% over
we project8.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Woody Marks
Receiving Yards
11.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Woody Marks
Receptions
1.5market 49% over8.6pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
+118
FanDuel
Woody Marks
Rushing Yards
27.5market 51% over
we project29.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Xavier Hutchinson
Receiving Yards
38.5market 51% over
we project46.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Xavier Hutchinson
Receptions
3.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
61.4%
7.6
Yards / att
5.8
355.4
Air yards / gm
256.0
0.089
EPA / dropback
-0.130
+4.0
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 14.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs HOU
Daniel Jones
IND · 5 games, 176 attempts
47
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
11th of 34
35.2 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 61.4% completions · -0.130 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
15th of 32
HOU has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 194 yards33 attempts × 5.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 19.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Xavier Hutchinson18.1% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Nico Collins14.6% target share · 20.9 PPR last 3
Kayshon Boutte10.5% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Josh Downs20.5% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Keenan Allen17.5% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Laquon Treadwell11.4% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
David Montgomery45.2% of team carries · 4.2 PPR last 4
Woody Marks37.4% of team carries · 9.6 PPR last 4
Jonathan Taylor74.8% of team carries · 18.1 PPR last 4
Seth McGowan12.6% of team carries · 2.3 PPR last 4
Dalton Schultz18.1% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Foster Moreau7.0% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4
Tyler Warren21.7% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4