Crossed 7 since opening0.5 points short of 77 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
DET-6.5DraftKings
NYJ+13.5FanDuel
Over44.5FanDuel
Under55.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NYJ
16.3%
DET
83.7%
Teams the market priced at 80–85% won 267 of 324 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
5.7%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Geno Smith · NYJQB Index componentsJared Goff · DET
54 · B
Index
61 · B+
29.4
Attempts / gm
38.2
9.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.4%
69.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs DET
Geno Smith
NYJ · 5 games, 147 attempts
54
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
22nd of 34
29.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
14th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 69.4% completions · 0.054 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
9th of 32
DET has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 196 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened -9.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 31 points of movement in all. It closed -6.5 — the favourite is 3 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -14.5 to -3.5 along the way, retracing 28 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
10% 5–2 days out90% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — -6.5 to -14.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 7
-9.5 to -6.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — back through 7.
Crossed 7
-6.5 to -9.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 1 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 7
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
8 reprices since, 28 points of movement in all. It closed 55.5 — 10 points higher than the open. It ranged from 40.5 to 55.5 along the way, retracing 18 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
7% 5–2 days out4% Final two days89% Gameday
Biggest move
9 points at once — 46.5 to 55.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
The total
Totals of 55.5 went over 8 of 16 times.
Only 16 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 49
Adonai Mitchell
Receiving Yards
45.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Adonai Mitchell
Receptions
3.5market 52% over4.7pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-104
DraftKings
Aidan Hutchinson
Sacks
0.5
over
-172
FanDuel
under
—
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Receiving Yards
58.5market 50% over
we project74.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Receptions
7.5market 42% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
+130
FanDuel
under
-161
DraftKings
Braelon Allen
Rushing Yards
6.5market 51% over3.6pp between books — shop it
we project47.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Breece Hall
Carries
13.5market 47% over
we project17.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Breece Hall
Receiving Yards
22.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Breece Hall
Receptions
3.5market 56% over12.3pp between books — shop it
over
+112
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Breece Hall
Rushing Yards
57.5market 50% over
we project54.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
D.J. Wonnum
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
David Bailey
Sacks
0.5
over
+164
FanDuel
under
—
Derrick Barnes
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Garrett Wilson
Receiving Yards
75.5market 50% over
we project74.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Garrett Wilson
Receptions
6.5market 55% over5.7pp between books — shop it
over
-112
FanDuel
under
+105
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Completions
25.5market 45% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Interceptions
0.5market 38% over
over
+145
DraftKings
under
-196
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Pass Attempts
33.5market 47% over
we project29.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Passing TDs
1.5market 53% over13.0pp between books — shop it
over
+125
FanDuel
under
+100
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Passing Yards
251.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Geno Smith
Rushing Yards
6.5market 50% over
we project8.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Isaac TeSlaa
Receiving Yards
15.5market 51% over
we project37.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Isaac TeSlaa
Receptions
1.5market 57% over17.5pp between books — shop it
over
+130
FanDuel
under
+115
DraftKings
Isaiah Williams
Receiving Yards
17.5market 51% over
we project30.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Isaiah Williams
Receptions
2.5market 53% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
-118
FanDuel
under
+101
DraftKings
Jack Campbell
Sacks
0.5
over
+430
FanDuel
under
—
Jahmyr Gibbs
Carries
18.5market 47% over
we project21.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receiving Yards
50.5market 50% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receptions
4.5market 46% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-133
DraftKings
Jahmyr Gibbs
Rushing Yards
89.5market 50% over
we project100.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jake Bates
Kicking Points
7.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+102
DraftKings
Jameson Williams
Receiving Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project55.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jameson Williams
Receptions
3.5market 55% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
+108
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Completions
27.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Interceptions
0.5market 25% over
over
+275
DraftKings
under
-400
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Pass Attempts
39.5market 50% over
we project38.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Passing TDs
1.5market 31% over33.9pp between books — shop it
over
+200
DraftKings
under
+154
FanDuel
Jared Goff
Passing Yards
269.5market 34% over16.9pp between books — shop it
over
+175
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jared Goff
Rushing Yards
0.5market 49% over5.3pp between books — shop it
we project3.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+118
FanDuel
under
-119
DraftKings
Jason Sanders
Kicking Points
5.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Jeremy Ruckert
Receiving Yards
8.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jeremy Ruckert
Receptions
0.5market 66% over
over
-225
FanDuel
under
+180
DraftKings
Kenyon Sadiq
Receiving Yards
44.5market 51% over
we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Kenyon Sadiq
Receptions
3.5market 58% over12.5pp between books — shop it
over
+100
FanDuel
under
+120
DraftKings
Kingsley Enagbare
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Sam LaPorta
Receiving Yards
45.5market 50% over
we project63.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Sam LaPorta
Receptions
4.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Sione Vaki
Rushing Yards
10.5market 48% over1.8pp between books — shop it
we project10.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
T'Vondre Sweat
Sacks
0.5
over
+370
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.0%
7.4
Yards / att
7.8
200.0
Air yards / gm
302.4
0.054
EPA / dropback
0.323
+2.6
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NYJ
Jared Goff
DET · 5 games, 191 attempts
61
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
6th of 34
38.2 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 60% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
10th of 34
7.8 yards per attempt · 67.0% completions · 0.323 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
29th of 32
NYJ has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 281 yards36 attempts × 7.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 31.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
-9.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — back through 7.
7 key-number crossings in all.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Garrett Wilson30.5% target share · 18.1 PPR last 4
Adonai Mitchell10.6% target share · 10.7 PPR last 2
Isaiah Williams9.9% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Amon-Ra St. Brown30.3% target share · 18.9 PPR last 4
Jameson Williams15.4% target share · 12.3 PPR last 4
Isaac TeSlaa10.1% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Braelon Allen46.0% of team carries · 10.1 PPR last 4
Breece Hall41.1% of team carries · 14.2 PPR last 3
Jahmyr Gibbs82.0% of team carries · 30 PPR last 4
Sione Vaki11.7% of team carries · 2.9 PPR last 4
Kenyon Sadiq14.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Jeremy Ruckert5.7% target share · 6.3 PPR last 3
Mason Taylor4.3% target share · 3.6 PPR last 2
Sam LaPorta19.7% target share · 16.7 PPR last 4