Carolina PanthersatCleveland Browns

Final · Carolina Panthers 18, Cleveland Browns 21

Opened

+1.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

+4.5

+3 since open

Total

37.5

Prices archived

156

23 spread · 21 total

Crossed 3 since opening2 point gap between books right now

Where the best number is

CLE+4.5DraftKings

CAR-2.5FanDuel

Over31.5DraftKings

Under37.5FanDuel

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

CAR

61.1%

CLE

38.9%

Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.

6.1%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.

Head to head

Bryce Young · CARQB Index componentsDeshaun Watson · CLE

76 · A

Index

39 · D

40.5

Attempts / gm

29.6

5.8%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

11.4%

62.3%

Completion

QB Index · vs CLE

Bryce Young

CAR · 4 games, 162 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

3rd of 34

40.5 attempts per game · team runs 65 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 5.8% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

6th of 34

7.8 yards per attempt · 62.3% completions · 0.240 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

21st of 32

CLE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 300 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 9 prices on record

Open

Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.

Move

8 reprices since, 19 points of movement in all. It closed +4.5 — the favourite is 3 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -4.5 to +4.5 along the way, retracing 16 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.

5% 5–2 days out95% Gameday

Biggest move

7 points at once — -2.5 to +4.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET.

Crossed 3

-2.5 to -4.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.

Crossed 3

-4.5 to -2.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET — back through 3.

Crossed 3

The life of this number

Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record

Open

Opened 42.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 3 days before kickoff.

Move

5 reprices since, 25 points of movement in all. It closed 37.5 — 5 points lower than the open. It ranged from 27.5 to 42.5 along the way, retracing 20 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.

100% Gameday

Biggest move

11 points at once — 38.5 to 27.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 169 of 254.

The total

Totals of 37.5 went over 101 of 189 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props · 58

AJ Dillon

Rushing Yards

4.5market 51% over2.7pp between books — shop it

over

-112

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Andre Szmyt

Kicking Points

6.5market 48% over

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-122

DraftKings

Blake Whiteheart

Receiving Yards

0.5market 37% over

over

+164

FanDuel

under

-213

DraftKings

Blake Whiteheart

Receptions

0.5market 41% over19.8pp between books — shop it

over

+130

DraftKings

under

+128

FanDuel

Bryce Young

Carries

2.5market 40% over

we project1.5/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

+130

DraftKings

under

-182

DraftKings

Bryce Young

Completions

18.5market 54% over

over

-141

DraftKings

under

+100

DraftKings

Bryce Young

Interceptions

0.5market 40% over

over

+135

DraftKings

under

-182

DraftKings

Bryce Young

Pass Attempts

31.5market 47% over

we project40.5/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Bryce Young

Passing TDs

1.5market 27% over22.6pp between books — shop it

over

+330

DraftKings

under

-158

FanDuel

Bryce Young

Passing Yards

214.5market 50% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Bryce Young

Rushing Yards

14.5market 41% over16.2pp between books — shop it

we project4.8/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

+170

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Carson Schwesinger

Sacks

0.5

over

+320

FanDuel

under

—

Chuba Hubbard

Carries

17.5market 51% over

we project15.3/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Chuba Hubbard

Receiving Yards

8.5market 49% over

over

-108

FanDuel

under

-122

FanDuel

Chuba Hubbard

Receptions

2.5market 47% over3.5pp between books — shop it

over

+101

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Chuba Hubbard

Rushing Yards

45.5market 50% over

we project76.5/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Darren Waller

Receiving Yards

10.5market 50% over

we project37.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Darren Waller

Receptions

2.5market 43% over1.7pp between books — shop it

over

+118

DraftKings

under

-146

FanDuel

Denzel Boston

Receiving Yards

47.5market 50% over

we project66.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Denzel Boston

Receptions

3.5market 11% over46.1pp between books — shop it

over

+1300

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Derrick Brown

Sacks

0.5

over

+134

FanDuel

under

—

Deshaun Watson

Carries

7.5market 58% over

we project7.4/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-161

DraftKings

under

+120

DraftKings

Deshaun Watson

Completions

16.5market 55% over

over

-141

DraftKings

under

+105

DraftKings

Deshaun Watson

Interceptions

0.5market 38% over

over

+150

DraftKings

under

-200

DraftKings

Deshaun Watson

Pass Attempts

31.5market 53% over

we project29.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-135

DraftKings

under

+100

DraftKings

Deshaun Watson

Passing TDs

1.5market 14% over26.8pp between books — shop it

over

+800

DraftKings

under

-208

DraftKings

Deshaun Watson

Passing Yards

187.5market 50% over

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Deshaun Watson

Rushing Yards

24.5market 51% over

we project33.4/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-118

DraftKings

under

-109

DraftKings

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receiving Yards

37.5market 50% over

we project31.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-110

FanDuel

under

-112

DraftKings

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receptions

3.5market 62% over12.1pp between books — shop it

over

-118

FanDuel

under

+145

DraftKings

Isaiah McGuire

Sacks

0.5

over

+154

FanDuel

under

—

Jaelan Phillips

Sacks

0.5

over

-158

FanDuel

under

—

Jalen Coker

Receiving Yards

53.5market 50% over

we project74.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Jalen Coker

Receptions

5.5market 41% over

over

+130

FanDuel

under

-172

DraftKings

Jared Verse

Sacks

0.5

over

+154

FanDuel

under

—

Jerry Jeudy

Receiving Yards

20.5market 50% over

we project20.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Jerry Jeudy

Receptions

1.5market 56% over2.9pp between books — shop it

over

-132

FanDuel

under

+117

DraftKings

KC Concepcion

Receiving Yards

33.5market 51% over

we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-110

DraftKings

KC Concepcion

Receptions

3.5market 11% over49.2pp between books — shop it

over

+1200

DraftKings

under

+100

FanDuel

KC Concepcion

Rushing Yards

5.5market 51% over

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-110

DraftKings

Mason Graham

Sacks

0.5

over

+290

FanDuel

under

—

Mitchell Evans

Receiving Yards

11.5market 38% over

over

+146

FanDuel

under

-198

FanDuel

Patrick Jones II

Sacks

0.5

over

-112

FanDuel

under

—

Princely Umanmielen

Sacks

0.5

over

+182

FanDuel

under

—

Quinshon Judkins

Carries

17.5market 53% over

we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-132

DraftKings

under

-105

DraftKings

Quinshon Judkins

Receiving Yards

13.5market 49% over2.6pp between books — shop it

over

-110

DraftKings

under

-108

FanDuel

Quinshon Judkins

Receptions

2.5market 37% over10.5pp between books — shop it

over

+150

DraftKings

under

-130

FanDuel

Quinshon Judkins

Rushing Yards

60.5market 50% over

we project44.2/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-113

FanDuel

Raheim Sanders

Receiving Yards

2.5market 51% over2.2pp between books — shop it

over

-110

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Raheim Sanders

Receptions

0.5market 60% over3.0pp between books — shop it

over

-160

FanDuel

under

+130

DraftKings

Raheim Sanders

Rushing Yards

5.5market 51% over

we project8.6/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-120

DraftKings

under

-106

FanDuel

Ryan Fitzgerald

Kicking Points

6.5market 52% over

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-103

DraftKings

Tetairoa McMillan

Receiving Yards

43.5market 50% over

we project96.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-114

FanDuel

under

-114

FanDuel

Tetairoa McMillan

Receptions

4.5market 43% over11.5pp between books — shop it

over

+115

DraftKings

under

+104

FanDuel

Tommy Tremble

Receiving Yards

10.5market 48% over1.8pp between books — shop it

we project20.5/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-105

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Tommy Tremble

Receptions

1.5market 51% over3.6pp between books — shop it

over

-119

DraftKings

under

+104

FanDuel

Xavier Legette

Receiving Yards

12.5market 49% over

over

-109

DraftKings

under

-116

DraftKings

Xavier Legette

Receptions

1.5market 43% over3.6pp between books — shop it

over

+120

DraftKings

under

-138

FanDuel

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.