Crossed 7 since opening1 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
BUF-7.5FanDuel
LAC+8.5DraftKings
Over37.5FanDuel
Under40.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
LAC
3.1%
BUF
96.9%
We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.
3.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 103.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Justin Herbert · LACQB Index componentsJosh Allen · BUF
34 · F
Index
54 · B
28.6
Attempts / gm
27.6
10.6%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.8%
59.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs BUF
Justin Herbert
LAC · 5 games, 143 attempts
34
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
24th of 34
28.6 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 10.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 59.4% completions · -0.193 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
12th of 32
BUF has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 22.5 points of movement in all. It closed -8.5 — the favourite is 5.5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -8.5 to +1.5 along the way, retracing 17 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
18% 5–2 days out82% Gameday
Biggest move
6 points at once — -2.5 to -8.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-7 to -2.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 1 PM ET — back through 3.
Crossed 3
-2.5 to -8.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 11 prices on record
Open
Opened 48.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
10 reprices since, 28 points of movement in all. It closed 40.5 — 8 points lower than the open. It ranged from 37.5 to 53.5 along the way, retracing 20 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
7% 5–2 days out11% Final two days82% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — 53.5 to 45.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 8.5 covered 46 of 94 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 73 of 94.
The total
Totals of 40.5 went over 112 of 207 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 52
Bradley Chubb
Sacks
0.5
over
+106
FanDuel
under
—
Cameron Dicker
Kicking Points
5.5market 55% over
over
-139
DraftKings
under
+108
DraftKings
D.J. Moore
Receiving Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project44.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
D.J. Moore
Receptions
3.5market 57% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
-140
FanDuel
under
+115
DraftKings
Dalton Kincaid
Receiving Yards
55.5market 50% over
we project55.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Dalton Kincaid
Receptions
4.5market 45% over3.1pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Dawson Knox
Receiving Yards
5.5market 35% over
over
+164
FanDuel
under
-225
FanDuel
Dawson Knox
Receptions
1.5market 43% over3.1pp between books — shop it
over
+134
FanDuel
under
-152
DraftKings
Deone Walker
Sacks
0.5
over
+370
FanDuel
under
—
Greg Rousseau
Sacks
0.5
over
-106
FanDuel
under
—
James Cook
Carries
16.5market 50% over
we project19.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
James Cook
Receiving Yards
7.5market 50% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
James Cook
Receptions
1.5market 42% over15.2pp between books — shop it
over
+120
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
James Cook
Rushing Yards
79.5market 50% over
we project106.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Josh Allen
Carries
6.5market 53% over
we project8.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Completions
19.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Interceptions
2.5market 35% over
over
+170
DraftKings
under
-233
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Pass Attempts
32.5market 48% over
we project27.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Passing TDs
1.5market 47% over11.8pp between books — shop it
over
+100
DraftKings
under
+122
FanDuel
Josh Allen
Passing Yards
238.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Rushing Yards
24.5market 50% over
we project47.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Carries
3.5market 64% over
we project4.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-357
DraftKings
under
+126
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Completions
20.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Interceptions
0.5market 36% over
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-217
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Pass Attempts
32.5market 50% over
we project28.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Passing TDs
1.5market 15% over34.4pp between books — shop it
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Passing Yards
225.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Justin Herbert
Rushing Yards
17.5market 52% over45.0pp between books — shop it
we project28.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+800
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Keaton Mitchell
Rushing Yards
14.5market 49% over3.1pp between books — shop it
we project27.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Keon Coleman
Receiving Yards
37.5market 42% over
we project44.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-166
FanDuel
Keon Coleman
Receptions
1.5market 36% over13.5pp between books — shop it
over
+160
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Khalil Mack
Sacks
0.5
over
+168
FanDuel
under
—
Khalil Shakir
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project51.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Khalil Shakir
Receptions
3.5market 58% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Ladd McConkey
Receiving Yards
38.5market 50% over
we project45.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Ladd McConkey
Receptions
4.5market 27% over40.9pp between books — shop it
over
+475
DraftKings
under
+116
DraftKings
Omarion Hampton
Carries
17.5market 53% over
we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Omarion Hampton
Receiving Yards
4.5market 51% over
over
-120
FanDuel
under
-110
FanDuel
Omarion Hampton
Receptions
1.5market 33% over24.0pp between books — shop it
over
+180
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Omarion Hampton
Rushing Yards
56.5market 37% over29.2pp between books — shop it
we project54.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
+850
DraftKings
under
-205
FanDuel
Oronde Gadsden
Receiving Yards
8.5market 50% over
we project17.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Oronde Gadsden
Receptions
3.5market 46% over
over
+104
FanDuel
under
-138
FanDuel
Oronde Gadsden II
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project17.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Oronde Gadsden II
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Quentin Johnston
Receiving Yards
36.5market 49% over
we project27.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Quentin Johnston
Receptions
3.5market 24% over27.7pp between books — shop it
over
+550
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Teair Tart
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Terrel Bernard
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Tre Harris
Receiving Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project45.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tre Harris
Receptions
2.5market 43% over12.5pp between books — shop it
over
+115
DraftKings
under
+108
FanDuel
Tuli Tuipulotu
Sacks
0.5
over
+130
FanDuel
under
—
Tyler Bass
Kicking Points
7.5market 54% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+103
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
65.9%
6.6
Yards / att
9.1
240.6
Air yards / gm
261.8
-0.193
EPA / dropback
0.286
-4.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
+4.4
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 4 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs LAC
Josh Allen
BUF · 5 games, 138 attempts
54
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
26th of 34
27.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
6th of 34
9.1 yards per attempt · 65.9% completions · 0.286 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
14th of 32
LAC has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 233 yards26 attempts × 9.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5275.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
-2.5 to -8.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 4 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 57 days, then left it on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tre Harris18.1% target share · 8.1 PPR last 4
Quentin Johnston13.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4
Ladd McConkey12.3% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Khalil Shakir19.5% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4
DJ Moore15.0% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Keon Coleman14.3% target share · 12.1 PPR last 4
Omarion Hampton49.7% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 4
Keaton Mitchell22.4% of team carries · 9 PPR last 4
Kimani Vidal9.5% of team carries · 6.8 PPR last 4
James Cook67.4% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
Oronde Gadsden II11.6% target share · 4.7 PPR last 4
David Njoku5.8% target share · 6.4 PPR last 2
Charlie Kolar5.1% target share · 3.3 PPR last 3
Dalton Kincaid16.5% target share · 7.9 PPR last 4
