Crossed 7 since opening1 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
GB-4.5DraftKings
ATL+5.5FanDuel
Over42.5DraftKings
Under43.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
ATL
32.2%
GB
67.8%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Michael Penix Jr. · ATLQB Index componentsJordan Love · GB
42 · D
Index
53 · B
25.7
Attempts / gm
37.0
4.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.1%
67.5%
QB Index · vs GB
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL · 3 games, 77 attempts
42
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
28th of 34
25.7 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 45% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
7th of 34
9.3 yards per attempt · 67.5% completions · 0.343 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
25th of 32
GB has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 238 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -7.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 58 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 3 points of movement in all. It closed -4.5 — the favourite is 3 points smaller than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
100% Final two days
Biggest move
3 points at once — -7.5 to -4.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
Crossed 7
-7.5 to -4.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — back through 7.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 46.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 58 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 4 points of movement in all. It closed 42.5 — 4 points lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
100% Final two days
Biggest move
4 points at once — 46.5 to 42.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 169 of 254.
The total
Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 56
Barryn Sorrell
Sacks
0.5
over
+260
FanDuel
under
—
Bijan Robinson
Carries
18.5market 50% over
we project20.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Receiving Yards
39.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Receptions
4.5market 50% over3.9pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Rushing Yards
77.5market 50% over
we project116.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Brandon Dorlus
Sacks
0.5
over
+250
FanDuel
under
—
Brenton Cox
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Brian Robinson Jr.
Rushing Yards
21.5market 51% over
we project42.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Cameron Thomas
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Brooks
Receiving Yards
7.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Chris Brooks
Receptions
1.5market 43% over
over
+122
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Chris Brooks
Rushing Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project17.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Christian Watson
Receiving Yards
69.5market 50% over
we project94.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Christian Watson
Receptions
4.5market 57% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-138
FanDuel
under
+118
DraftKings
Dani Dennis-Sutton
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Devonte Wyatt
Sacks
0.5
over
+260
FanDuel
under
—
Drake London
Receiving Yards
65.5market 50% over
we project97.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Drake London
Receptions
5.5market 49% over3.4pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Edgerrin Cooper
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Gervon Dexter Sr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+230
FanDuel
under
—
Harold Perkins Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+490
FanDuel
under
—
Jahan Dotson
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jahan Dotson
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+122
DraftKings
Jonnu Smith
Receiving Yards
7.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Jonnu Smith
Receptions
1.5market 39% over
over
+144
FanDuel
under
-185
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Completions
19.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Interceptions
0.5market 48% over
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Pass Attempts
31.5market 51% over
we project37.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Passing TDs
1.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Jordan Love
Passing Yards
226.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Jordan Love
Rushing Yards
7.5market 51% over
we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Kaleb Johnson
Carries
10.5market 46% over
we project5.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Kaleb Johnson
Rushing Yards
34.5market 50% over
we project21.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts
Receiving Yards
35.5market 50% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts
Receptions
3.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receiving Yards
35.5market 50% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receptions
3.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
Lukas Van Ness
Sacks
0.5
over
+162
FanDuel
under
—
MarShawn Lloyd
Receiving Yards
5.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Receptions
1.5market 37% over
over
+157
DraftKings
under
-204
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Rushing Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project22.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Matthew Golden
Receiving Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project79.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Matthew Golden
Receptions
4.5market 47% over
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-128
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Completions
18.5market 53% over
over
-127
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Interceptions
0.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Pass Attempts
31.5market 50% over
we project25.7/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Michael Penix Jr.
Passing TDs
0.5market 68% over
over
-270
FanDuel
under
+198
FanDuel
Michael Penix Jr.
Passing Yards
205.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Michael Penix Jr.
Rushing Yards
3.5market 51% over
we project1.3/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
Olamide Zaccheaus
Receiving Yards
9.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Olamide Zaccheaus
Receptions
1.5market 41% over
over
+136
FanDuel
under
-167
DraftKings
Skyy Moore
Receiving Yards
8.5market 51% over
we project7.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Skyy Moore
Receptions
1.5market 40% over
over
+137
DraftKings
under
-174
FanDuel
Tucker Kraft
Receiving Yards
45.5market 50% over
we project42.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Tucker Kraft
Receptions
3.5market 57% over
over
-154
FanDuel
under
+116
FanDuel
Za'Darius Smith
Sacks
0.5
over
+124
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
60.5%
9.3
Yards / att
7.6
163.3
Air yards / gm
322.2
0.343
EPA / dropback
0.110
+1.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 19.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 3250.5 yards in 1 of 3275.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs ATL
Jordan Love
GB · 5 games, 185 attempts
53
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 65% pass · sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.110 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
27th of 32
ATL has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 267 yards35 attempts × 7.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 3 of 5325.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Drake London28.1% target share · 17.7 PPR last 4
Jahan Dotson13.3% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Zachariah Branch6.3% target share · 2.9 PPR last 4
Matthew Golden24.7% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Christian Watson22.0% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Skyy Moore7.7% target share · 2.6 PPR last 4
Bijan Robinson65.8% of team carries · 22.5 PPR last 4
Brian Robinson32.9% of team carries · 11.8 PPR last 4
MarShawn Lloyd44.4% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Kaleb Johnson30.0% of team carries · 2.6 PPR last 4
Kyle Pitts11.7% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Austin Hooper5.5% target share · 5 PPR last 3
Tucker Kraft15.9% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Jonnu Smith3.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 3