Final · Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14
Opened
-8.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-9.5
-1 since open
Total
42.5
Prices archived
42
4 spread · 3 total
0.5 points short of 10
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
LV
19.2%
LAC
80.8%
Teams the market priced at 80–85% won 267 of 324 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
3.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 103.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Kirk Cousins · LVQB Index componentsJustin Herbert · LAC
64 · B+
Index
40 · D
34.4
Attempts / gm
28.6
4.4%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
10.6%
65.1%
Completion
QB Index · vs LAC
Kirk Cousins
LV · 5 games, 172 attempts
64
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
12th of 34
34.4 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 4.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 65.1% completions · 0.191 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
14th of 32
LAC has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 254 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -8.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 53 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed -9.5 — the favourite is 1 point bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 9, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — -8.5 to -9.5 on Wed, Sep 9, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 9.5 covered 75 of 154 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 124 of 154.
The total
Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
59.4%
7.4
Yards / att
6.6
282.0
Air yards / gm
240.6
0.191
EPA / dropback
-0.193
+1.9
CPOE
completion % over expected
-4.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5275.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs LV
Justin Herbert
LAC · 5 games, 143 attempts
40
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
24th of 34
28.6 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 10.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 59.4% completions · -0.193 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
5th of 32
LV has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards26 attempts × 6.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 4 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tre Tucker16.1% target share · 11.8 PPR last 4
Cody White8.6% target share · 9.4 PPR last 4
Jalen Nailor6.3% target share · 3.4 PPR last 3
Tre Harris18.1% target share · 8.1 PPR last 4
Quentin Johnston13.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4
Ladd McConkey12.3% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Ashton Jeanty71.0% of team carries · 13 PPR last 4
Mike Washington Jr.20.2% of team carries · 4.2 PPR last 4
Connor Heyward3.2% of team carries · 0.4 PPR last 4
Omarion Hampton49.7% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 4
Brock Bowers19.5% target share · 23.7 PPR last 3
Michael Mayer14.4% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Oronde Gadsden II11.6% target share · 4.7 PPR last 4
David Njoku5.8% target share · 6.4 PPR last 2
