Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncos

Final · Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20

Opened

-2.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

-3

-0.5 since open

Total

43.5

Prices archived

4 spread · 2 total

Sitting on 3 — the most valuable number it can hold

Where the best number is

DEN-3DraftKings

JAX+3DraftKings

Over43.5DraftKings

Under44.5FanDuel

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

JAX

41.4%

DEN

58.6%

Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.

4.0%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 104.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Trevor Lawrence · JAXQB Index componentsBo Nix · DEN

50 · C

Index

47 · C

28.6

Attempts / gm

31.5

6.5%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

4.1%

67.1%

Completion

QB Index · vs DEN

Trevor Lawrence

JAX · 5 games, 143 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

24th of 34

28.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.5% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

4th of 34

8.2 yards per attempt · 67.1% completions · 0.274 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

24th of 32

DEN has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 6 games

≈ 219 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record

Open

Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 53 days before kickoff.

Move

One reprice since, 0.5 points of movement in all. It closed -3 — the favourite is 0.5 points bigger than at the open.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 8 PM ET.

100% 5+ days out

Biggest move

0.5 points at once — -2.5 to -3 on Wed, Sep 2, 8 PM ET.

Held 3

It closed on 3, having held it for 18 days.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.

The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.

They won outright in 648 of 1,112.

The total

Totals of 43.5 went over 162 of 326 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

Hover or drag to replay

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

JAX skill corpswho they faceDEN skill corps

142.0

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs DEN / vs JAX

203.8

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Parker Washington25.4% target share · 15.6 PPR last 4
Jakobi Meyers13.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Brian Thomas Jr.13.0% target share · 4.6 PPR last 4

WR statements like this held next week 60%· CI 50.4–68.9

Jaylen Waddle22.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Courtland Sutton16.2% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Pat Bryant7.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4

107.8

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs DEN / vs JAX

42.0

RB statements like this held 48%· CI 38.5–57.7, no measured edge

Bhayshul Tuten61.2% of team carries · 13.5 PPR last 4
Chris Rodriguez Jr.20.9% of team carries · 5.7 PPR last 4
Ameer Abdullah7.5% of team carries · 0.6 PPR last 4

RB statements like this held 51.9%· CI 42.4–61.3, no measured edge

J.K. Dobbins57.0% of team carries · 10.6 PPR last 4

54.8

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs DEN / vs JAX

33.8

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Brenton Strange18.8% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Nate Boerkircher4.3% target share · 2.1 PPR last 4

TE statements like this held 58.5%· CI 49–67.4, no measured edge

Evan Engram11.0% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Nate Adkins2.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 3

Where this ranking comes from

QB Index · vs JAX

Bo Nix

DEN · 6 games, 189 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

16th of 34

31.5 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

29th of 34

5.6 yards per attempt · 60.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

8th of 32

JAX has allowed 7.7 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 168 yards30 attempts × 5.6 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

The market has his team at 23.3 points implied.

What he has actually cleared

150.5 yards in 3 of 6175.5 yards in 3 of 6200.5 yards in 2 of 6

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.