Final · Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20
Opened
+4.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
+5.5
+1 since open
Total
42.5
Prices archived
50
3 spread · 2 total
Where the best number is
TEN+5.5DraftKings
PHI-5.5DraftKings
Over41.5FanDuel
Under42.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
PHI
69.0%
TEN
31.0%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jalen Hurts · PHIQB Index componentsCam Ward · TEN
47 · C
Index
41 · D
30.8
Attempts / gm
31.0
7.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.1%
57.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs TEN
Jalen Hurts
PHI · 5 games, 154 attempts
47
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
18th of 34
30.8 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
27th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.8% completions · -0.058 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
6th of 32
TEN has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 173 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened +4.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 53 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed +5.5 — the favourite is 1 point bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 8, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — +4.5 to +5.5 on Tue, Sep 8, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
63.2%
6.1
Yards / att
5.8
231.8
Air yards / gm
215.8
-0.058
EPA / dropback
-0.185
-2.5
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs PHI
Cam Ward
TEN · 5 games, 155 attempts
41
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
17th of 34
31.0 attempts per game · team runs 53 plays at 59% pass · sacked on 6.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · -0.185 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
18th of 32
PHI has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards29 attempts × 5.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 4 of 5175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Dontayvion Wicks19.6% target share · 8.4 PPR last 4
DeVonta Smith18.9% target share · 16.2 PPR last 3
Makai Lemon15.4% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Carnell Tate25.7% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Wan'Dale Robinson20.8% target share · 10.7 PPR last 4
Elic Ayomanor8.3% target share · 4.2 PPR last 4
Saquon Barkley30.8% of team carries · 5.8 PPR last 4
Tank Bigsby23.9% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4
Will Shipley17.1% of team carries · 4.4 PPR last 4
Tony Pollard63.6% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Dallas Goedert11.2% target share · 11.6 PPR last 3
Zach Ertz5.6% target share · 1.7 PPR last 3
Johnny Mundt3.5% target share · 1 PPR last 4
Gunnar Helm9.7% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
