Cleveland BrownsatTampa Bay Buccaneers

Final · Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

Opened

-6

First seen Jul 29

Closed

-6.5

-0.5 since open

Total

42.5

Prices archived

5 spread · 2 total

0.5 points short of 7

Where the best number is

TB-6.5DraftKings

CLE+6.5DraftKings

Over40.5FanDuel

Under42.5DraftKings

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

CLE

29.0%

71.0%

Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.

4.4%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 104.4%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.

Head to head

Deshaun Watson · CLEQB Index componentsBaker Mayfield · TB

44 · D

Index

40 · D

29.6

Attempts / gm

32.0

11.4%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

11.9%

64.2%

QB Index · vs TB

Deshaun Watson

CLE · 5 games, 148 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

21st of 34

29.6 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 11.4% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

20th of 34

6.8 yards per attempt · 64.2% completions · 0.024 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

16th of 32

TB has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 180 yards

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record

Open

Opened -6 on Wed, Jul 29, 53 days before kickoff.

Move

2 reprices since, 1.5 points of movement in all. It closed -6.5 — the favourite is 0.5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -6.5 to -5.5 along the way, retracing 1 point of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 8 PM ET.

100% 5+ days out

Biggest move

1 point at once — -5.5 to -6.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 8 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 234 of 325.

The total

Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

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The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

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Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

CLE skill corpswho they faceTB skill corps

138.8

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs TB / vs CLE

166.8

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Denzel Boston20.3% target share · 13.8 PPR last 4
KC Concepcion19.6% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Jerry Jeudy10.1% target share · 4 PPR last 4

Emeka Egbuka22.6% target share · 10.5 PPR last 4
Chris Godwin Jr.14.4% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Ted Hurst III11.0% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4

60.0

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs TB / vs CLE

106.8

RB statements like this held 51.9%· CI 42.4–61.3, no measured edge

Quinshon Judkins62.4% of team carries · 12.3 PPR last 4
Raheim Sanders7.7% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4

RB statements like this held 48%· CI 38.5–57.7, no measured edge

Bucky Irving57.9% of team carries · 14.6 PPR last 4
Kenny Gainwell12.8% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4

60.2

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs TB / vs CLE

53.8

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

Harold Fannin Jr.18.2% target share · 11.9 PPR last 4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Cade Otton18.5% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

QB Index · vs CLE

Baker Mayfield

TB · 3 games, 96 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

15th of 34

32.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 11.9% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

26th of 34

6.4 yards per attempt · 63.5% completions · -0.274 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

21st of 32

CLE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 170 yards27 attempts × 6.4 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

The market has his team at 24.5 points implied.

What he has actually cleared

200.5 yards in 2 of 3225.5 yards in 0 of 3250.5 yards in 0 of 3

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.