Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
GB
68.2%
NYJ
31.8%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.8%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.8%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jordan Love · GBQB Index componentsGeno Smith · NYJ
51 · C
Index
41 · D
37.0
Attempts / gm
29.4
5.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
9.8%
60.5%
Completion
QB Index · vs NYJ
Jordan Love
GB · 5 games, 185 attempts
51
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 65% pass · sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.110 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
29th of 32
NYJ has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 267 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened +6 on Wed, Jul 29, 53 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 0.5 points of movement in all. It closed +5.5 — the favourite is 0.5 points smaller than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Aug 6, 5 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
0.5 points at once — +6 to +5.5 on Thu, Aug 6, 5 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
69.4%
7.6
Yards / att
7.4
322.2
Air yards / gm
200.0
0.110
EPA / dropback
0.054
-2.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 3 of 5325.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs GB
Geno Smith
NYJ · 5 games, 147 attempts
41
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
22nd of 34
29.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
14th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 69.4% completions · 0.054 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
25th of 32
GB has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 196 yards27 attempts × 7.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Matthew Golden24.7% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Christian Watson22.0% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Skyy Moore7.7% target share · 2.6 PPR last 4
Garrett Wilson30.5% target share · 18.1 PPR last 4
Adonai Mitchell10.6% target share · 10.7 PPR last 2
Isaiah Williams9.9% target share · 8 PPR last 4
MarShawn Lloyd44.4% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Kaleb Johnson30.0% of team carries · 2.6 PPR last 4
Chris Brooks16.7% of team carries · 3.1 PPR last 4
Braelon Allen46.0% of team carries · 10.1 PPR last 4
Tucker Kraft15.9% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Jonnu Smith3.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 3
Kenyon Sadiq14.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Jeremy Ruckert5.7% target share · 6.3 PPR last 3
