Final · Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20
Opened
-4.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-4.5
Unmoved
Total
43.5
Prices archived
44
3 spread · 3 total
1 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
NE-4.5DraftKings
PIT+5.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
PIT
35.4%
NE
64.6%
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
4.6%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.6%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Aaron Rodgers · PITQB Index componentsDrake Maye · NE
50 · C
Index
63 · B+
36.8
Attempts / gm
30.2
7.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.8%
59.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs NE
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · 5 games, 184 attempts
50
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
10th of 34
36.8 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.7 yards per attempt · 59.8% completions · -0.071 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
20th of 32
NE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 232 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -4.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 53 days before kickoff and never moved.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 169 of 254.
The total
Totals of 43.5 went over 162 of 326 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
65.6%
6.7
Yards / att
8.1
315.0
Air yards / gm
277.2
-0.071
EPA / dropback
0.126
-2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+6.2
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 19.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs PIT
Drake Maye
NE · 5 games, 151 attempts
63
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
19th of 34
30.2 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
8th of 34
8.1 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · 0.126 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
11th of 32
PIT has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 238 yards29 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 5 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
DK Metcalf21.1% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Roman Wilson14.3% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Germie Bernard11.4% target share · 6.8 PPR last 4
Romeo Doubs15.3% target share · 11.7 PPR last 4
DeMario Douglas14.7% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4
Mack Hollins13.3% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Jaylen Warren73.7% of team carries · 20.7 PPR last 4
Rico Dowdle15.8% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 2
Travis Homer5.3% of team carries · 0.5 PPR last 3
Rhamondre Stevenson39.9% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
Pat Freiermuth14.9% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Darnell Washington9.1% target share · 6.6 PPR last 4
Hunter Henry12.7% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Eli Raridon6.0% target share · 6 PPR last 4
