Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CIN
44.5%
HOU
55.5%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
3.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 103.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Joe Burrow · CINQB Index componentsC.J. Stroud · HOU
70 · A
Index
69 · B+
37.8
Attempts / gm
37.0
4.5%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.0%
71.4%
QB Index · vs HOU
Joe Burrow
CIN · 5 games, 189 attempts
70
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
7th of 34
37.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 71.4% completions · 0.166 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
15th of 32
HOU has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 260 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 53 days before kickoff and never moved.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 46.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 53 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed 45.5 — 1 point lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 8, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 46.5 to 45.5 on Tue, Sep 8, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 45.5 went over 119 of 235 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
64.3%
7.2
Yards / att
7.6
270.4
Air yards / gm
355.4
0.166
EPA / dropback
0.089
+5.4
CPOE
completion % over expected
+4.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CIN
C.J. Stroud
HOU · 5 games, 185 attempts
69
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 61% pass · sacked on 7.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 64.3% completions · 0.089 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
13th of 32
CIN has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 262 yards35 attempts × 7.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tee Higgins23.1% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Ja'Marr Chase20.4% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Dohnte Meyers9.7% target share · 6.1 PPR last 4
Xavier Hutchinson18.1% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Nico Collins14.6% target share · 20.9 PPR last 3
Kayshon Boutte10.5% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Chase Brown64.5% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
Samaje Perine24.5% of team carries · 5.5 PPR last 4
David Montgomery45.2% of team carries · 4.2 PPR last 4
Woody Marks37.4% of team carries · 9.6 PPR last 4
Mike Gesicki9.1% target share · 13 PPR last 4
Tanner Hudson3.8% target share · 4.1 PPR last 4
Drew Sample3.2% target share · 2.5 PPR last 3
Dalton Schultz18.1% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4