Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
WAS · 10 games, 227 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
22.7 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 6.6% of dropbacks
7.5 yards per attempt · 61.2% completions · -0.016 EPA per dropback
PHI has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Opened -4.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It sits -5.5 — the favourite is 1 point bigger than at the open.
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Aug 9, 2 AM ET.
1 point at once — -4.5 to -5.5 on Sun, Aug 9, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 525 prices on record
Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
524 reprices since, 1442 points of movement in all. It sits 75.5 — 28 points higher than the open. It ranged from 19.5 to 75.5 along the way, retracing 1414 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Aug 31, 8 PM ET.
56 points at once — 75.5 to 19.5 on Mon, Aug 31, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
No history held for a total of 75.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
Dallas Goedert
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Dallas Goedert
Receptions
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-136
FanDuel
DeVonta Smith
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
DeVonta Smith
Receptions
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-140
FanDuel
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jalen Hurts
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jalen Hurts
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jayden Daniels
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jayden Daniels
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Saquon Barkley
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Saquon Barkley
Receptions
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Saquon Barkley
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Stefon Diggs
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Stefon Diggs
Receptions
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+112
FanDuel
Terry McLaurin
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Terry McLaurin
Receptions
over
-172
FanDuel
under
+128
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 35.0 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
PHI · 16 games, 454 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
28.4 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.6% of dropbacks
7.1 yards per attempt · 64.8% completions · 0.071 EPA per dropback
WAS has allowed 8.1 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 40.5 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.