Final · Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24
Opened
-4.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-5.5
-1 since open
Total
44.5
Prices archived
174
12 spread · 37 total
0.5 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
PHI-5.5FanDuel
WSH+6DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
WSH
31.5%
PHI
68.5%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.2%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.2%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jayden Daniels · WASQB Index componentsJalen Hurts · PHI
32 · F
Index
39 · D
25.3
Attempts / gm
30.8
7.3%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.8%
60.5%
QB Index · vs PHI
Jayden Daniels
WAS · 3 games, 76 attempts
32
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
29th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 7.3% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.0 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.021 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
18th of 32
PHI has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 181 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -4.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed -5.5 — the favourite is 1 point bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Aug 9, 2 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — -4.5 to -5.5 on Sun, Aug 9, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 3 points of movement in all. It closed 44.5 — 3 points lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Aug 30, 2 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
2 points at once — 47.5 to 45.5 on Sun, Aug 30, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 44.5 went over 129 of 294 times.
The range clears a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 52
Arnold Ebiketie
Sacks
0.5
over
+220
FanDuel
under
—
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Receptions
2.5market 58% over
over
-158
FanDuel
under
+124
DraftKings
Da'Ron Payne
Sacks
0.5
over
+370
FanDuel
under
—
Dallas Goedert
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project39.7/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Dallas Goedert
Receptions
3.5market 53% over
over
-122
FanDuel
under
-101
DraftKings
Deatrich Wise Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
DeVonta Smith
Receiving Yards
66.5market 50% over
we project78.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
DeVonta Smith
Receptions
5.5market 47% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-132
DraftKings
Dontayvion Wicks
Receiving Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project52.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Dontayvion Wicks
Receptions
2.5market 50% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Drew Stevens
Kicking Points
6.5market 48% over
over
-104
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Frankie Luvu
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Carries
11.5market 47% over
we project13.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Receiving Yards
6.5market 51% over
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Rushing Yards
40.5market 49% over
we project47.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jake Elliott
Kicking Points
7.5market 48% over
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jalen Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
+124
FanDuel
under
—
Jalen Hurts
Carries
6.5market 55% over
we project4.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-143
DraftKings
under
+111
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Completions
18.5market 53% over
over
-127
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Interceptions
0.5market 44% over
over
+114
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Passing Yards
214.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Jalen Hurts
Rushing Yards
28.5market 49% over
we project21.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jalyx Hunt
Sacks
0.5
over
+164
FanDuel
under
—
Jayden Daniels
Carries
7.5market 53% over
we project7.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-127
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Completions
18.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Interceptions
0.5market 46% over
over
+107
DraftKings
under
-137
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Passing Yards
205.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Jayden Daniels
Rushing Yards
36.5market 51% over
we project67.7/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Jordan Davis
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Makai Lemon
Receiving Yards
24.5market 49% over
we project21.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Makai Lemon
Receptions
2.5market 41% over
over
+131
DraftKings
under
-166
FanDuel
Marquise Brown
Receiving Yards
11.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Marquise Brown
Receptions
1.5market 33% over
over
+185
DraftKings
under
-240
FanDuel
Moro Ojomo
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Nolan Smith Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+194
FanDuel
under
—
Odafe Oweh
Sacks
0.5
over
+194
FanDuel
under
—
Rachaad White
Carries
6.5market 48% over
we project7.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Rachaad White
Receiving Yards
14.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Rachaad White
Receptions
2.5market 41% over
over
+128
DraftKings
under
-164
DraftKings
Rachaad White
Rushing Yards
24.5market 49% over
we project29.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Saquon Barkley
Carries
17.5market 53% over
we project9.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-130
DraftKings
under
+102
DraftKings
Saquon Barkley
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Saquon Barkley
Receptions
2.5market 46% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Saquon Barkley
Rushing Yards
74.5market 50% over
we project45.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Sonny Styles
Sacks
0.5
over
+430
FanDuel
under
—
Stefon Diggs
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project42.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Stefon Diggs
Receptions
3.5market 57% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+118
DraftKings
Tank Bigsby
Rushing Yards
17.5market 50% over
we project22.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Terry McLaurin
Receiving Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project50.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Terry McLaurin
Receptions
3.5market 57% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Zack Baun
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
57.8%
6.0
Yards / att
6.1
224.3
Air yards / gm
231.8
0.021
EPA / dropback
-0.058
+2.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.5
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 19.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 2 of 3175.5 yards in 1 of 3200.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs WAS
Jalen Hurts
PHI · 5 games, 154 attempts
39
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
18th of 34
30.8 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
27th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.8% completions · -0.058 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
17th of 32
WAS has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 173 yards29 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Stefon Diggs20.1% target share · 13.3 PPR last 4
Terry McLaurin17.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Antonio Williams14.3% target share · 5 PPR last 4
Dontayvion Wicks19.6% target share · 8.4 PPR last 4
DeVonta Smith18.9% target share · 16.2 PPR last 3
Makai Lemon15.4% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Jacory Croskey-Merritt47.9% of team carries · 8.1 PPR last 4
Rachaad White20.7% of team carries · 8.3 PPR last 4
Austin Ekeler5.0% of team carries · 3.7 PPR last 2
Saquon Barkley30.8% of team carries · 5.8 PPR last 4
Chig Okonkwo8.4% target share · 5.4 PPR last 3
John Bates3.9% target share · 2.1 PPR last 3
Dallas Goedert11.2% target share · 11.6 PPR last 3
Zach Ertz5.6% target share · 1.7 PPR last 3
