Final · Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39
Opened
+1.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-2.5
-4 since open
Total
46.5
Prices archived
158
17 spread · 30 total
0.5 points short of 31 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
MIN-1.5FanDuel
GB+2.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
GB
45.6%
MIN
54.4%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.5%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.5%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jordan Love · GBQB Index componentsKyler Murray · MIN
54 · B
Index
27 · F
37.0
Attempts / gm
25.3
5.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.2%
60.5%
Completion
QB Index · vs MIN
Jordan Love
GB · 5 games, 185 attempts
54
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 65% pass · sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.110 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
26th of 32
MIN has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 267 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 4 points of movement in all. It closed -2.5 — the favourite changed sides.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Aug 13, 8 PM ET.
75% 5+ days out25% Final two days
Biggest move
3 points at once — +1.5 to -1.5 on Thu, Aug 13, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed 46.5 — 1 point higher than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 45.5 to 46.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 46.5 went over 121 of 239 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 45
Aaron Jones
Carries
8.5market 51% over
we project19.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Aaron Jones
Receiving Yards
14.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Aaron Jones
Receptions
2.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Aaron Jones
Rushing Yards
29.5market 49% over
we project82.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Andrew Van Ginkel
Sacks
0.5
over
+124
FanDuel
under
—
Christian Watson
Receiving Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project94.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Christian Watson
Receptions
3.5market 59% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
-164
DraftKings
under
+132
FanDuel
Dallas Turner
Sacks
0.5
over
+154
FanDuel
under
—
Devonte Wyatt
Sacks
0.5
over
+198
FanDuel
under
—
Eric Wilson
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Jauan Jennings
Receiving Yards
23.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jauan Jennings
Receptions
2.5market 41% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+129
DraftKings
under
-160
FanDuel
Javon Hargrave
Sacks
0.5
over
+265
FanDuel
under
—
Jayden Reed
Receiving Yards
39.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Jayden Reed
Receptions
3.5market 56% over3.3pp between books — shop it
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+116
DraftKings
Jordan Addison
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project40.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jordan Addison
Receptions
3.5market 49% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-119
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Carries
2.5market 53% over
we project1.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Completions
20.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Interceptions
0.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Passing Yards
238.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Jordan Love
Rushing Yards
10.5market 49% over1.8pp between books — shop it
we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jordan Mason
Carries
11.5market 46% over
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Jordan Mason
Rushing Yards
43.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Josh Jacobs
Rushing Yards
52.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Justin Jefferson
Receiving Yards
73.5market 50% over
we project64.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Justin Jefferson
Receptions
5.5market 57% over
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+121
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Carries
5.5market 44% over
we project5.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+112
DraftKings
under
-143
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Completions
21.5market 52% over
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Interceptions
0.5market 47% over
over
+102
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Passing Yards
221.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Rushing Yards
23.5market 49% over
we project23.3/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Lukas Van Ness
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
MarShawn Lloyd
Carries
11.5market 52% over
we project8.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-104
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+121
DraftKings
MarShawn Lloyd
Rushing Yards
44.5market 50% over
we project22.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Matthew Golden
Receiving Yards
39.5market 51% over
we project79.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Matthew Golden
Receptions
3.5market 47% over
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-127
DraftKings
T.J. Hockenson
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project40.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
T.J. Hockenson
Receptions
3.5market 44% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Trey Smack
Kicking Points
6.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Tucker Kraft
Receiving Yards
44.5market 50% over
we project42.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tucker Kraft
Receptions
3.5market 59% over
over
-172
FanDuel
under
+128
FanDuel
Will Reichard
Kicking Points
7.5market 46% over
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
68.3%
7.6
Yards / att
6.6
322.2
Air yards / gm
158.5
0.110
EPA / dropback
-0.076
-2.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+5.4
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 3 of 5325.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs GB
Kyler Murray
MIN · 4 games, 101 attempts
27
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
30th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 8.2% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
18th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 68.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
25th of 32
GB has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards26 attempts × 6.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 0 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Matthew Golden24.7% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Christian Watson22.0% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Skyy Moore7.7% target share · 2.6 PPR last 4
Justin Jefferson19.2% target share · 15.9 PPR last 4
Jordan Addison16.9% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Myles Price5.4% target share · 3 PPR last 4
MarShawn Lloyd44.4% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Kaleb Johnson30.0% of team carries · 2.6 PPR last 4
Chris Brooks16.7% of team carries · 3.1 PPR last 4
Aaron Jones67.8% of team carries · 15.1 PPR last 4
Tucker Kraft15.9% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Jonnu Smith3.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 3
T.J. Hockenson20.8% target share · 8.9 PPR last 4
Gavin Bartholomew5.4% target share · 4.9 PPR last 2
