Final · Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14
Opened
-10.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-9.5
+1 since open
Total
47.5
Prices archived
204
14 spread · 35 total
Crossed 10 since opening0.5 points short of 10
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
ARI
19.5%
LAC
80.5%
Teams the market priced at 80–85% won 267 of 324 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.4%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.4%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jacoby Brissett · ARIQB Index componentsJustin Herbert · LAC
60 · B+
Index
43 · D
39.8
Attempts / gm
28.6
5.7%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
10.6%
66.3%
Completion
QB Index · vs LAC
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · 5 games, 199 attempts
60
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
4th of 34
39.8 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 5.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
25th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 66.3% completions · -0.020 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
14th of 32
LAC has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 210 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -10.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed -9.5 — the favourite is 1 point smaller than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — -10.5 to -9.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET.
Crossed 10
-10.5 to -9.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET — back through 10.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 46.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed 47.5 — 1 point higher than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Aug 31, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 46.5 to 47.5 on Mon, Aug 31, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 9.5 covered 75 of 154 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 124 of 154.
The total
Totals of 47.5 went over 104 of 217 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 39
Cameron Dicker
Kicking Points
8.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Chad Ryland
Kicking Points
5.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Charlie Kolar
Receiving Yards
17.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Charlie Kolar
Receptions
1.5market 59% over
over
-164
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Jacoby Brissett
Completions
22.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Interceptions
0.5market 54% over
over
-137
DraftKings
under
+106
DraftKings
Jacoby Brissett
Passing Yards
221.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Jacoby Brissett
Rushing Yards
10.5market 50% over
we project12.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love
Carries
9.5market 54% over
we project13.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jeremiyah Love
Receptions
2.5market 45% over
over
+108
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Jeremiyah Love
Rushing Yards
39.5market 50% over
we project49.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Josh Sweat
Sacks
0.5
over
+168
FanDuel
under
—
Justin Herbert
Carries
4.5market 52% over
we project4.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-103
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Completions
20.5market 53% over
over
-127
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Interceptions
0.5market 36% over
over
+162
DraftKings
under
-213
DraftKings
Justin Herbert
Passing Yards
233.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Justin Herbert
Rushing Yards
21.5market 50% over
we project28.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Kendrick Bourne
Receiving Yards
18.5market 49% over
we project44.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Kendrick Bourne
Receptions
2.5market 38% over
over
+148
DraftKings
under
-192
DraftKings
Ladd McConkey
Receiving Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project45.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Ladd McConkey
Receptions
4.5market 54% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+110
FanDuel
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Receiving Yards
47.5market 50% over
we project21.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Receptions
3.5market 56% over
over
-149
DraftKings
under
+116
DraftKings
Michael Wilson
Receiving Yards
41.5market 49% over
we project57.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Michael Wilson
Receptions
3.5market 52% over
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
Omarion Hampton
Carries
15.5market 52% over
we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-104
DraftKings
Omarion Hampton
Receiving Yards
12.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Omarion Hampton
Receptions
2.5market 46% over4.4pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-133
DraftKings
Omarion Hampton
Rushing Yards
67.5market 50% over
we project54.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Quentin Johnston
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project27.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Quentin Johnston
Receptions
3.5market 48% over4.4pp between books — shop it
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Tre Harris
Receiving Yards
26.5market 49% over
we project45.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tre Harris
Receptions
2.5market 46% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
+107
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Trey McBride
Receiving Yards
56.5market 49% over
we project61.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Trey McBride
Receptions
6.5market 44% over
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Tyler Allgeier
Carries
8.5market 52% over
we project7.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Tyler Allgeier
Rushing Yards
29.5market 50% over
we project23.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Walter Nolen III
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
59.4%
5.6
Yards / att
6.6
284.2
Air yards / gm
240.6
-0.020
EPA / dropback
-0.193
+1.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
-4.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 19.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs ARI
Justin Herbert
LAC · 5 games, 143 attempts
43
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
24th of 34
28.6 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 10.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 59.4% completions · -0.193 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
1st of 32
ARI has allowed 9.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards26 attempts × 6.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 28.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 4 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Michael Wilson26.3% target share · 13.4 PPR last 4
Kendrick Bourne11.3% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Jalen Brooks4.1% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Tre Harris18.1% target share · 8.1 PPR last 4
Quentin Johnston13.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4
Ladd McConkey12.3% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Jeremiyah Love57.8% of team carries · 9.5 PPR last 4
Tyler Allgeier30.2% of team carries · 6.3 PPR last 4
Omarion Hampton49.7% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 4
Keaton Mitchell22.4% of team carries · 9 PPR last 4
Trey McBride28.9% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Elijah Higgins4.1% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
Oronde Gadsden II11.6% target share · 4.7 PPR last 4
David Njoku5.8% target share · 6.4 PPR last 2
