Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 80–85% won 267 of 324 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
The two prices add up to 104.2%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
ARI · 13 games, 485 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
37.3 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 8.1% of dropbacks
6.9 yards per attempt · 64.9% completions · -0.006 EPA per dropback
LAC has allowed 6.6 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Opened -10.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It sits -9.5 — the favourite is 1 point smaller than at the open.
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET.
1 point at once — -10.5 to -9.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET.
-10.5 to -9.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET — back through 10.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 349 prices on record
Opened 46.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
348 reprices since, 935 points of movement in all. It sits 77.5 — 31 points higher than the open. It ranged from 20.5 to 77.5 along the way, retracing 904 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 1, 2 AM ET.
57 points at once — 77.5 to 20.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 9.5 covered 75 of 154 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 124 of 154.
No history held for a total of 77.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
Jacoby Brissett
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Justin Herbert
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ladd McConkey
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ladd McConkey
Receptions
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Receptions
over
-172
FanDuel
under
+128
FanDuel
Michael Wilson
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Michael Wilson
Receptions
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Omarion Hampton
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Quentin Johnston
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Quentin Johnston
Receptions
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-154
FanDuel
Tre Harris
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tre Harris
Receptions
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Trey McBride
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Trey McBride
Receptions
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-154
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 34.0 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
LAC · 16 games, 512 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 9.5% of dropbacks
7.3 yards per attempt · 66.4% completions · 0.028 EPA per dropback
ARI has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 43.5 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.