Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
NYJ · 9 games, 204 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
22.7 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 11.7% of dropbacks
6.2 yards per attempt · 62.7% completions · -0.097 EPA per dropback
TEN has allowed 8.2 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 441 prices on record
Opened 38.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
440 reprices since, 1139 points of movement in all. It sits 67.5 — 29 points higher than the open. It ranged from 15.5 to 69.5 along the way, retracing 1110 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET.
54 points at once — 69.5 to 15.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
No history held for a total of 67.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
Breece Hall
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Breece Hall
Receptions
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Breece Hall
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Carnell Tate
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Carnell Tate
Receptions
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-122
FanDuel
Garrett Wilson
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Garrett Wilson
Receptions
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Geno Smith
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Geno Smith
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tony Pollard
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receptions
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-140
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 32.5 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
TEN · 17 games, 540 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
31.8 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 60% pass · sacked on 9.2% of dropbacks
5.9 yards per attempt · 59.8% completions · -0.183 EPA per dropback
NYJ has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 35.0 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.