Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NYJ
47.3%
TEN
52.7%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.7%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Geno Smith · NYJQB Index componentsCam Ward · TEN
56 · B
Index
32 · F
29.4
Attempts / gm
31.0
9.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.1%
69.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs TEN
Geno Smith
NYJ · 5 games, 147 attempts
56
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
22nd of 34
29.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
14th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 69.4% completions · 0.054 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
6th of 32
TEN has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 196 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed -1.5 — the favourite is 1 point smaller than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Sep 7, 8 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — -2.5 to -1.5 on Mon, Sep 7, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 38.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 2 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from 38.5 to 39.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Aug 31, 8 PM ET.
50% 5+ days out50% 5–2 days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 38.5 to 39.5 on Mon, Aug 31, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 38.5 went over 67 of 140 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 51
Adonai Mitchell
Receiving Yards
32.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Adonai Mitchell
Receptions
2.5market 52% over
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Braelon Allen
Rushing Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project47.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Breece Hall
Carries
15.5market 53% over
we project17.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Breece Hall
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Breece Hall
Receptions
2.5market 53% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Breece Hall
Rushing Yards
64.5market 51% over
we project54.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Calvin Ridley
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Calvin Ridley
Receptions
2.5market 39% over
over
+144
DraftKings
under
-185
DraftKings
Cam Ward
Passing Yards
201.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Cam Ward
Rushing Yards
9.5market 50% over
we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Cameron Ward
Completions
19.5market 51% over
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-108
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Interceptions
0.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Passing Yards
202.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Cameron Ward
Rushing Yards
9.5market 50% over
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Carnell Tate
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over
we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Carnell Tate
Receptions
3.5market 45% over
over
+109
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
David Bailey
Sacks
0.5
over
-114
FanDuel
under
—
Demario Davis
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Garrett Wilson
Receiving Yards
61.5market 50% over
we project74.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Garrett Wilson
Receptions
5.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Completions
19.5market 47% over
over
+102
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Interceptions
0.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Geno Smith
Passing Yards
212.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Geno Smith
Rushing Yards
6.5market 51% over
we project8.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Gunnar Helm
Receiving Yards
21.5market 51% over
we project12.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Gunnar Helm
Receptions
2.5market 47% over
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
Jacob Martin
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Jeffery Simmons
Sacks
0.5
over
-130
FanDuel
under
—
Jermaine Johnson II
Sacks
0.5
over
+116
FanDuel
under
—
Joey Slye
Kicking Points
6.5market 53% over
over
-127
DraftKings
under
-102
DraftKings
John Franklin-Myers
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Keldric Faulk
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Kenyon Sadiq
Receiving Yards
14.5market 49% over
we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Kenyon Sadiq
Receptions
1.5market 51% over
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Mason Taylor
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Mason Taylor
Receptions
2.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-137
DraftKings
Omar Cooper Jr.
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Omar Cooper Jr.
Receptions
1.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
T'Vondre Sweat
Sacks
0.5
over
+360
FanDuel
under
—
Tony Pollard
Carries
13.5market 50% over
we project13.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tony Pollard
Receiving Yards
9.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tony Pollard
Receptions
1.5market 51% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Tony Pollard
Rushing Yards
50.5market 50% over
we project54.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tyjae Spears
Carries
7.5market 47% over
we project3.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+102
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Tyjae Spears
Receiving Yards
16.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tyjae Spears
Receptions
2.5market 52% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Tyjae Spears
Rushing Yards
24.5market 49% over
we project13.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receiving Yards
41.5market 50% over
we project35.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Wan'Dale Robinson
Receptions
4.5market 48% over
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-123
DraftKings
Will McDonald IV
Sacks
0.5
over
-128
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
63.2%
7.4
Yards / att
5.8
200.0
Air yards / gm
215.8
0.054
EPA / dropback
-0.185
+2.6
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NYJ
Cam Ward
TEN · 5 games, 155 attempts
32
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
17th of 34
31.0 attempts per game · team runs 53 plays at 59% pass · sacked on 6.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · -0.185 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
29th of 32
NYJ has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards29 attempts × 5.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 4 of 5175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Garrett Wilson30.5% target share · 18.1 PPR last 4
Adonai Mitchell10.6% target share · 10.7 PPR last 2
Isaiah Williams9.9% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Carnell Tate25.7% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Wan'Dale Robinson20.8% target share · 10.7 PPR last 4
Elic Ayomanor8.3% target share · 4.2 PPR last 4
Braelon Allen46.0% of team carries · 10.1 PPR last 4
Breece Hall41.1% of team carries · 14.2 PPR last 3
Tony Pollard63.6% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Tyjae Spears15.9% of team carries · 5.2 PPR last 4
Kenyon Sadiq14.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Jeremy Ruckert5.7% target share · 6.3 PPR last 3
Mason Taylor4.3% target share · 3.6 PPR last 2
Gunnar Helm9.7% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
