Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
ATL · 9 games, 276 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
30.7 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
7.2 yards per attempt · 60.1% completions · 0.018 EPA per dropback
PIT has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
One reprice since, 0.5 points of movement in all. It sits -3 — the favourite is 0.5 points bigger than at the open.
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Aug 11, 2 AM ET.
0.5 points at once — -2.5 to -3 on Tue, Aug 11, 2 AM ET.
It has sat on 3 for 24 days.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 399 prices on record
Opened 41.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
398 reprices since, 937 points of movement in all. It sits 72.5 — 31 points higher than the open. It ranged from 16.5 to 72.5 along the way, retracing 906 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 2 PM ET.
55 points at once — 72.5 to 17.5 on Tue, Sep 1, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
No history held for a total of 72.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
Aaron Rodgers
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Receptions
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-140
FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
DK Metcalf
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
DK Metcalf
Receptions
over
-130
FanDuel
under
-102
FanDuel
Drake London
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Drake London
Receptions
over
-125
FanDuel
under
-106
FanDuel
Jaylen Warren
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaylen Warren
Receptions
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaylen Warren
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts
Receptions
over
+110
FanDuel
under
-146
FanDuel
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receptions
over
+110
FanDuel
under
-146
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth
Receptions
over
-138
FanDuel
under
+104
FanDuel
Rico Dowdle
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Rico Dowdle
Receptions
over
-130
FanDuel
under
-102
FanDuel
Rico Dowdle
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 34.8 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
PIT · 16 games, 498 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
31.1 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 5.5% of dropbacks
6.7 yards per attempt · 65.7% completions · 0.051 EPA per dropback
ATL has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 37.8 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
This line sits on 3, which was the exact final margin in 1,046 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.