Final · Atlanta Falcons 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Opened
-2.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-5.5
-3 since open
Total
41.5
Prices archived
238
16 spread · 57 total
Crossed 3 since opening0.5 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
PIT-5.5FanDuel
ATL+6DraftKings
Over40.5DraftKings
Under41.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
ATL
30.3%
PIT
69.7%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.7%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Michael Penix Jr. · ATLQB Index componentsAaron Rodgers · PIT
53 · B
Index
44 · C
25.7
Attempts / gm
36.8
4.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.1%
67.5%
QB Index · vs PIT
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL · 3 games, 77 attempts
53
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
28th of 34
25.7 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 45% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
7th of 34
9.3 yards per attempt · 67.5% completions · 0.343 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
11th of 32
PIT has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 238 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record
Open
Opened -2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
4 reprices since, 3 points of movement in all. It closed -5.5 — the favourite is 3 points bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Sep 10, 8 PM ET.
34% 5+ days out33% 5–2 days out33% Final two days
Biggest move
1 point at once — -3.5 to -4.5 on Thu, Sep 10, 8 PM ET.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 25 days, then left it on Sat, Sep 5, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 41.5 went over 126 of 264 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 51
Aaron Rodgers
Completions
20.5market 54% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Interceptions
0.5market 41% over
over
+131
DraftKings
under
-169
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Passing Yards
213.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers
Rushing Yards
0.5market 49% over
we project3.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Alex Highsmith
Sacks
0.5
over
+106
FanDuel
under
—
Bijan Robinson
Carries
18.5market 52% over
we project20.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-103
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson
Receiving Yards
35.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Receptions
4.5market 44% over3.8pp between books — shop it
over
+114
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Rushing Yards
75.5market 50% over
we project116.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Brandon Dorlus
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Brian Robinson Jr.
Rushing Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project42.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Cameron Heyward
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Boswell
Kicking Points
8.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Cooper Rush
Completions
17.5market 51% over
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-108
DraftKings
Cooper Rush
Interceptions
0.5market 61% over
over
-179
DraftKings
under
+139
DraftKings
Cooper Rush
Passing Yards
180.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Cooper Rush
Rushing Yards
0.5market 41% over
over
+132
FanDuel
under
-170
FanDuel
Darnell Washington
Receiving Yards
16.5market 50% over
we project26.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Darnell Washington
Receptions
1.5market 56% over3.7pp between books — shop it
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Derrick Harmon
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
DK Metcalf
Receiving Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project45.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
DK Metcalf
Receptions
3.5market 55% over
over
-136
FanDuel
under
+109
DraftKings
Drake London
Receiving Yards
54.5market 50% over
we project97.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Drake London
Receptions
4.5market 57% over
over
-154
DraftKings
under
+120
FanDuel
Gervon Dexter Sr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+250
FanDuel
under
—
Jahan Dotson
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jahan Dotson
Receptions
1.5market 49% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Jaylen Warren
Carries
10.5market 53% over
we project14.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-130
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Receiving Yards
19.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jaylen Warren
Receptions
2.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Jaylen Warren
Rushing Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project82.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts
Receiving Yards
38.5market 50% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts
Receptions
4.5market 46% over
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-136
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Receptions
4.5market 43% over
over
+118
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receiving Yards
38.5market 50% over
we project29.7/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receptions
3.5market 57% over4.6pp between books — shop it
over
-154
DraftKings
under
+140
FanDuel
Nick Folk
Kicking Points
5.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Nick Herbig
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Pat Freiermuth
Receiving Yards
25.5market 49% over
we project33.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth
Receptions
2.5market 52% over6.1pp between books — shop it
over
-123
DraftKings
under
+118
FanDuel
Rico Dowdle
Carries
12.5market 49% over
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Rico Dowdle
Receiving Yards
10.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Rico Dowdle
Receptions
1.5market 56% over
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+116
DraftKings
Rico Dowdle
Rushing Yards
46.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
T.J. Watt
Sacks
0.5
over
-118
FanDuel
under
—
Tua Tagovailoa
Completions
19.5market 54% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Tua Tagovailoa
Interceptions
0.5market 60% over
over
-175
DraftKings
under
+135
DraftKings
Tua Tagovailoa
Passing Yards
197.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Tua Tagovailoa
Rushing Yards
1.5market 51% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Za'Darius Smith
Sacks
0.5
over
+136
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
59.8%
9.3
Yards / att
6.7
163.3
Air yards / gm
315.0
0.343
EPA / dropback
-0.071
+1.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 3250.5 yards in 1 of 3275.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs ATL
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · 5 games, 184 attempts
44
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
10th of 34
36.8 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.7 yards per attempt · 59.8% completions · -0.071 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
27th of 32
ATL has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 232 yards35 attempts × 6.7 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Drake London28.1% target share · 17.7 PPR last 4
Jahan Dotson13.3% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Zachariah Branch6.3% target share · 2.9 PPR last 4
DK Metcalf21.1% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Roman Wilson14.3% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Germie Bernard11.4% target share · 6.8 PPR last 4
Bijan Robinson65.8% of team carries · 22.5 PPR last 4
Brian Robinson32.9% of team carries · 11.8 PPR last 4
Jaylen Warren73.7% of team carries · 20.7 PPR last 4
Rico Dowdle15.8% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 2
Kyle Pitts11.7% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Austin Hooper5.5% target share · 5 PPR last 3
Pat Freiermuth14.9% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Darnell Washington9.1% target share · 6.6 PPR last 4