Final · Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34
Opened
-7.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-8.5
-1 since open
Total
40.5
Prices archived
174
12 spread · 32 total
Where the best number is
JAX-8.5DraftKings
CLE+8.5DraftKings
Over39.5DraftKings
Under40.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CLE
20.9%
JAX
79.1%
Teams the market priced at 75–80% won 434 of 552 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 1.2 points.
3.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 103.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Deshaun Watson · CLEQB Index componentsTrevor Lawrence · JAX
50 · C
Index
52 · B
29.6
Attempts / gm
28.6
11.4%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.5%
64.2%
Completion
QB Index · vs JAX
Deshaun Watson
CLE · 5 games, 148 attempts
50
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
21st of 34
29.6 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 11.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.8 yards per attempt · 64.2% completions · 0.024 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
8th of 32
JAX has allowed 7.7 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 180 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -7.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed -8.5 — the favourite is 1 point bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Sep 7, 8 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — -7.5 to -8.5 on Mon, Sep 7, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 8.5 covered 46 of 94 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 73 of 94.
The total
Totals of 40.5 went over 112 of 207 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 45
Andre Szmyt
Kicking Points
4.5market 54% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+103
DraftKings
Arik Armstead
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Bhayshul Tuten
Carries
11.5market 50% over
we project16.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Bhayshul Tuten
Receiving Yards
11.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Bhayshul Tuten
Receptions
1.5market 58% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Bhayshul Tuten
Rushing Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project69.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Brenton Strange
Receiving Yards
34.5market 49% over
we project47.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Brenton Strange
Receptions
3.5market 45% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
+108
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Brian Thomas Jr.
Receiving Yards
38.5market 50% over
we project21.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Brian Thomas Jr.
Receptions
2.5market 58% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Cam Little
Kicking Points
7.5market 52% over
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-104
DraftKings
Carson Schwesinger
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Carries
9.5market 49% over
we project5.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Rushing Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project22.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Denzel Boston
Receiving Yards
24.5market 50% over
we project66.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Denzel Boston
Receptions
2.5market 46% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Carries
4.5market 44% over
we project7.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+116
DraftKings
under
-149
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Completions
18.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Interceptions
0.5market 56% over
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+114
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Passing Yards
177.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Deshaun Watson
Rushing Yards
16.5market 49% over
we project33.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project31.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receptions
4.5market 41% over
over
+128
DraftKings
under
-166
FanDuel
Jakobi Meyers
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over
we project40.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jakobi Meyers
Receptions
3.5market 48% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jared Verse
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Jerry Jeudy
Receiving Yards
31.5market 51% over
we project20.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Jerry Jeudy
Receptions
2.5market 60% over
over
-172
DraftKings
under
+134
DraftKings
Josh Hines-Allen
Sacks
0.5
over
-225
FanDuel
under
—
KC Concepcion
Receiving Yards
33.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
KC Concepcion
Receptions
3.5market 48% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-122
DraftKings
Maliek Collins
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Mason Graham
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Parker Washington
Receiving Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project70.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Parker Washington
Receptions
4.5market 43% over
over
+119
DraftKings
under
-154
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Carries
15.5market 50% over
we project14.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Receiving Yards
9.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Receptions
1.5market 55% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Quinshon Judkins
Rushing Yards
58.5market 50% over
we project44.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Travon Walker
Sacks
0.5
over
-158
FanDuel
under
—
Trevor Lawrence
Carries
4.5market 53% over
we project2.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
+102
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence
Completions
20.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence
Interceptions
0.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence
Passing Yards
232.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence
Rushing Yards
16.5market 50% over
we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.1%
6.8
Yards / att
8.2
211.8
Air yards / gm
224.8
0.024
EPA / dropback
0.274
-1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+7.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CLE
Trevor Lawrence
JAX · 5 games, 143 attempts
52
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
24th of 34
28.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
4th of 34
8.2 yards per attempt · 67.1% completions · 0.274 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
21st of 32
CLE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 219 yards27 attempts × 8.2 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Denzel Boston20.3% target share · 13.8 PPR last 4
KC Concepcion19.6% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Jerry Jeudy10.1% target share · 4 PPR last 4
Parker Washington25.4% target share · 15.6 PPR last 4
Jakobi Meyers13.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Brian Thomas Jr.13.0% target share · 4.6 PPR last 4
Quinshon Judkins62.4% of team carries · 12.3 PPR last 4
Raheim Sanders7.7% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4
Bhayshul Tuten61.2% of team carries · 13.5 PPR last 4
Chris Rodriguez Jr.20.9% of team carries · 5.7 PPR last 4
Harold Fannin Jr.18.2% target share · 11.9 PPR last 4
Brenton Strange18.8% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Nate Boerkircher4.3% target share · 2.1 PPR last 4