Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 75–80% won 434 of 552 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 1.2 points.
The two prices add up to 104.4%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
CLE · 8 games, 212 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
26.5 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks
6.6 yards per attempt · 56.6% completions · -0.252 EPA per dropback
JAX has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 329 prices on record
Opened 40.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
328 reprices since, 708 points of movement in all. It sits 70.5 — 30 points higher than the open. It ranged from 16.5 to 70.5 along the way, retracing 678 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
54 points at once — 70.5 to 16.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 7.5 covered 132 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 209 of 275.
No history held for a total of 70.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
Bhayshul Tuten
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Brenton Strange
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Brenton Strange
Receptions
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Brian Thomas Jr.
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Brian Thomas Jr.
Receptions
over
-172
FanDuel
under
+128
FanDuel
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Denzel Boston
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Denzel Boston
Receptions
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-148
FanDuel
Deshaun Watson
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Harold Fannin Jr.
Receptions
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-166
FanDuel
Jakobi Meyers
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jakobi Meyers
Receptions
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jerry Jeudy
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jerry Jeudy
Receptions
over
-182
FanDuel
under
+136
FanDuel
KC Concepcion
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
KC Concepcion
Receptions
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-140
FanDuel
Parker Washington
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Parker Washington
Receptions
over
-182
FanDuel
under
+136
FanDuel
Quinshon Judkins
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 31.5 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
JAX · 17 games, 560 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
32.9 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
7.2 yards per attempt · 60.9% completions · 0.064 EPA per dropback
CLE has allowed 6.6 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 39.0 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.