Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
The two prices add up to 104.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
BAL · 13 games, 302 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
23.2 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 45% pass · sacked on 10.7% of dropbacks
8.4 yards per attempt · 63.6% completions · 0.054 EPA per dropback
IND has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 415 prices on record
Opened 48.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
414 reprices since, 921 points of movement in all. It sits 77.5 — 29 points higher than the open. It ranged from 20.5 to 77.5 along the way, retracing 892 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 1, 2 AM ET.
57 points at once — 77.5 to 20.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 3.5 covered 325 of 656 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 414 of 656.
No history held for a total of 77.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
Daniel Jones
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Derrick Henry
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Lamar Jackson
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Lamar Jackson
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Mark Andrews
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Mark Andrews
Receptions
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-154
FanDuel
Zay Flowers
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Zay Flowers
Receptions
over
-130
FanDuel
under
-102
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 40.5 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
IND · 13 games, 384 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
29.5 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks
8.1 yards per attempt · 68.0% completions · 0.161 EPA per dropback
BAL has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 37.0 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.