Final · Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23
Opened
+3.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
+3.5
Unmoved
Total
47.5
Prices archived
180
16 spread · 32 total
0.5 points past 3
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
BAL
61.3%
IND
38.7%
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Lamar Jackson · BALQB Index componentsDaniel Jones · IND
61 · B+
Index
43 · D
24.0
Attempts / gm
35.2
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.9%
70.8%
QB Index · vs IND
Lamar Jackson
BAL · 4 games, 96 attempts
61
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
31st of 34
24.0 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 46% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
1st of 34
10.1 yards per attempt · 70.8% completions · 0.363 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
4th of 32
IND has allowed 8.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 257 yards
The life of this number: the FanDuel spread opened +3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff and never moved.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 48.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed 47.5 — 1 point lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Aug 31, 2 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 48.5 to 47.5 on Mon, Aug 31, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3.5 covered 325 of 656 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 414 of 656.
The total
Totals of 47.5 went over 104 of 217 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 40
Alec Pierce
Receiving Yards
43.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Alec Pierce
Receptions
3.5market 41% over
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-167
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Carries
3.5market 47% over
we project2.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Completions
21.5market 53% over
over
-130
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Interceptions
0.5market 48% over
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-122
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Passing Yards
233.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Rushing Yards
10.5market 51% over
we project5.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Derrick Henry
Carries
18.5market 47% over
we project22.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-127
DraftKings
Derrick Henry
Receiving Yards
6.5market 49% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Derrick Henry
Receptions
1.5market 34% over
over
+182
FanDuel
under
-233
DraftKings
Derrick Henry
Rushing Yards
78.5market 50% over
we project95.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Ja'Kobi Lane
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Ja'Kobi Lane
Receptions
1.5market 54% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+106
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Carries
17.5market 53% over
we project20.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor
Receptions
2.5market 57% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+118
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Rushing Yards
76.5market 50% over
we project79.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Josh Downs
Receiving Yards
46.5market 50% over
we project49.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Josh Downs
Receptions
4.5market 44% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-143
DraftKings
Justice Hill
Receiving Yards
11.5market 49% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Justice Hill
Receptions
2.5market 38% over
over
+144
FanDuel
under
-194
FanDuel
Justice Hill
Rushing Yards
8.5market 51% over
we project26.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Keenan Allen
Receiving Yards
26.5market 50% over
we project36.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Keenan Allen
Receptions
3.5market 43% over
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-154
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Carries
6.5market 51% over
we project4.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Completions
18.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Interceptions
0.5market 42% over
over
+124
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Passing Yards
220.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Lamar Jackson
Rushing Yards
40.5market 50% over
we project36.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Mark Andrews
Receiving Yards
35.5market 50% over
we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Mark Andrews
Receptions
3.5market 44% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Rashod Bateman
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project46.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Rashod Bateman
Receptions
1.5market 61% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-185
DraftKings
under
+152
FanDuel
Spencer Shrader
Kicking Points
6.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Trey Hendrickson
Sacks
0.5
over
-102
FanDuel
under
—
Tyler Loop
Kicking Points
7.5market 48% over
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Tyler Warren
Receiving Yards
45.5market 50% over
we project42.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Tyler Warren
Receptions
4.5market 55% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Zay Flowers
Receiving Yards
66.5market 50% over
we project101.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Zay Flowers
Receptions
4.5market 57% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
61.4%
10.1
Yards / att
5.8
243.0
Air yards / gm
256.0
0.363
EPA / dropback
-0.130
+8.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
-2.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs BAL
Daniel Jones
IND · 5 games, 176 attempts
43
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
11th of 34
35.2 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 61.4% completions · -0.130 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
19th of 32
BAL has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 194 yards33 attempts × 5.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Zay Flowers23.1% target share · 20.4 PPR last 4
Rashod Bateman15.7% target share · 11.3 PPR last 4
Devontez Walker5.2% target share · 4.4 PPR last 4
Josh Downs20.5% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Keenan Allen17.5% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Laquon Treadwell11.4% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Derrick Henry72.6% of team carries · 19.1 PPR last 4
Justice Hill11.5% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 4
Jonathan Taylor74.8% of team carries · 18.1 PPR last 4
Seth McGowan12.6% of team carries · 2.3 PPR last 4
Mark Andrews23.1% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Matthew Hibner3.7% target share · 6 PPR last 3
Tyler Warren21.7% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4