Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
The two prices add up to 103.8%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
BUF · 16 games, 460 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
28.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 8.0% of dropbacks
8.0 yards per attempt · 69.3% completions · 0.143 EPA per dropback
HOU has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
2 reprices since, 6 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from -1.5 to +1.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Aug 10, 2 PM ET.
3 points at once — +1.5 to -1.5 on Mon, Aug 10, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 461 prices on record
Opened 44.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
460 reprices since, 1236 points of movement in all. It sits 74.5 — 30 points higher than the open. It ranged from 19.5 to 74.5 along the way, retracing 1206 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
55 points at once — 74.5 to 19.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
No history held for a total of 74.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
C.J. Stroud
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
C.J. Stroud
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
D.J. Moore
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
D.J. Moore
Receptions
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Dalton Kincaid
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Dalton Kincaid
Receptions
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Dalton Schultz
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Dalton Schultz
Receptions
over
-130
FanDuel
under
-102
FanDuel
David Montgomery
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
David Montgomery
Receptions
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-122
FanDuel
David Montgomery
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
James Cook
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Josh Allen
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Josh Allen
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kayshon Boutte
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kayshon Boutte
Receptions
over
-140
FanDuel
under
+106
FanDuel
Khalil Shakir
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Khalil Shakir
Receptions
over
-130
FanDuel
under
-102
FanDuel
Nico Collins
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Nico Collins
Receptions
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-136
FanDuel
Woody Marks
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Woody Marks
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 38.0 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
HOU · 14 games, 423 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
30.2 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 5.2% of dropbacks
7.2 yards per attempt · 64.5% completions · 0.107 EPA per dropback
BUF has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 36.5 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.