Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
BUF
50.9%
HOU
49.1%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
3.8%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 103.8%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Josh Allen · BUFQB Index componentsC.J. Stroud · HOU
53 · B
Index
69 · B+
27.6
Attempts / gm
37.0
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.0%
65.9%
Completion
QB Index · vs HOU
Josh Allen
BUF · 5 games, 138 attempts
53
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
26th of 34
27.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
6th of 34
9.1 yards per attempt · 65.9% completions · 0.286 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
15th of 32
HOU has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 233 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 6 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from -1.5 to +1.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Aug 10, 2 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
3 points at once — +1.5 to -1.5 on Mon, Aug 10, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 44.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 2 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from 44.5 to 45.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Sep 10, 2 PM ET.
50% 5–2 days out50% Final two days
Biggest move
1 point at once — 44.5 to 45.5 on Thu, Sep 10, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 44.5 went over 129 of 294 times.
The range clears a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 54
Bradley Chubb
Sacks
0.5
over
+130
FanDuel
under
—
C.J. Stroud
Completions
19.5market 52% over
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Interceptions
0.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Passing Yards
219.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
C.J. Stroud
Rushing Yards
9.5market 50% over
we project14.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
D.J. Moore
Receiving Yards
47.5market 50% over
we project44.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
D.J. Moore
Receptions
3.5market 54% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+108
FanDuel
Dalton Kincaid
Receiving Yards
38.5market 49% over
we project55.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Dalton Kincaid
Receptions
3.5market 44% over4.2pp between books — shop it
over
+116
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Dalton Schultz
Receiving Yards
34.5market 50% over
we project48.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Dalton Schultz
Receptions
3.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Danielle Hunter
Sacks
0.5
over
-130
FanDuel
under
—
David Montgomery
Carries
13.5market 51% over
we project10.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
David Montgomery
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
David Montgomery
Receptions
1.5market 54% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
+107
DraftKings
David Montgomery
Rushing Yards
54.5market 49% over
we project27.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Dawson Knox
Receiving Yards
13.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Dawson Knox
Receptions
1.5market 45% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Deone Walker
Sacks
0.5
over
+490
FanDuel
under
—
Ed Oliver
Sacks
0.5
over
+220
FanDuel
under
—
Greg Rousseau
Sacks
0.5
over
+112
FanDuel
under
—
Jadeveon Clowney
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
James Cook
Carries
17.5market 47% over
we project19.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
James Cook
Receiving Yards
20.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
James Cook
Receptions
2.5market 53% over
over
-130
DraftKings
under
+102
DraftKings
James Cook
Rushing Yards
74.5market 50% over
we project106.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jaylin Noel
Receiving Yards
14.5market 51% over
we project45.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Jaylin Noel
Receptions
1.5market 47% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Josh Allen
Carries
6.5market 52% over
we project8.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-102
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Completions
20.5market 48% over
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Interceptions
0.5market 52% over
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Passing Yards
223.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Josh Allen
Rushing Yards
30.5market 50% over
we project47.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Josh Palmer
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Josh Palmer
Receptions
1.5market 37% over
over
+154
FanDuel
under
-210
FanDuel
Joshua Palmer
Receiving Yards
11.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Joshua Palmer
Receptions
1.5market 35% over
over
+172
DraftKings
under
-222
DraftKings
Ka'imi Fairbairn
Kicking Points
7.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Kayshon Boutte
Receiving Yards
25.5market 51% over
we project30.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Kayshon Boutte
Receptions
2.5market 40% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+133
DraftKings
under
-166
FanDuel
Khalil Shakir
Receiving Yards
36.5market 49% over
we project51.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Khalil Shakir
Receptions
3.5market 53% over
over
-127
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Nico Collins
Receiving Yards
69.5market 50% over
we project83.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Nico Collins
Receptions
5.5market 42% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
+123
DraftKings
under
-148
FanDuel
Sheldon Rankins
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
T.J. Parker
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Tyler Bass
Kicking Points
7.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Will Anderson Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+102
FanDuel
under
—
Woody Marks
Carries
6.5market 55% over
we project8.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-143
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Woody Marks
Receiving Yards
9.5market 49% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Woody Marks
Receptions
1.5market 51% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Woody Marks
Rushing Yards
26.5market 50% over
we project29.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Xavier Hutchinson
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project46.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Xavier Hutchinson
Receptions
2.5market 38% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-180
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
64.3%
9.1
Yards / att
7.6
261.8
Air yards / gm
355.4
0.286
EPA / dropback
0.089
+4.4
CPOE
completion % over expected
+4.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5275.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs BUF
C.J. Stroud
HOU · 5 games, 185 attempts
69
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 61% pass · sacked on 7.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 64.3% completions · 0.089 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
12th of 32
BUF has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 262 yards35 attempts × 7.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Khalil Shakir19.5% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4
DJ Moore15.0% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Keon Coleman14.3% target share · 12.1 PPR last 4
Xavier Hutchinson18.1% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Nico Collins14.6% target share · 20.9 PPR last 3
Kayshon Boutte10.5% target share · 6 PPR last 4
James Cook67.4% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
Ray Davis2.8% of team carries · 1.6 PPR last 4
Ty Johnson0.7% of team carries · 7.8 PPR last 3
David Montgomery45.2% of team carries · 4.2 PPR last 4
Dalton Kincaid16.5% target share · 7.9 PPR last 4
Dawson Knox6.8% target share · 3.7 PPR last 4
Dalton Schultz18.1% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Foster Moreau7.0% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4