Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
The two prices add up to 104.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
NO · 11 games, 327 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
29.7 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 58% pass · sacked on 8.7% of dropbacks
7.3 yards per attempt · 67.6% completions · 0.006 EPA per dropback
DET has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Opened -7 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
3 reprices since, 1.5 points of movement in all. It sits -6.5 — the favourite is 0.5 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -7 to -6.5 along the way, retracing 1 point of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Aug 16, 8 PM ET.
0.5 points at once — -7 to -6.5 on Thu, Aug 6, 5 AM ET.
It sat on 7 for 14 days, then left it on Mon, Aug 31, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 420 prices on record
Opened 48.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
419 reprices since, 995 points of movement in all. It sits 79.5 — 31 points higher than the open. It ranged from 22.5 to 79.5 along the way, retracing 964 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
57 points at once — 79.5 to 22.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
No history held for a total of 79.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Receptions
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Chris Olave
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Chris Olave
Receptions
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receptions
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-166
FanDuel
Jahmyr Gibbs
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jameson Williams
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jameson Williams
Receptions
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+112
FanDuel
Jared Goff
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Juwan Johnson
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Juwan Johnson
Receptions
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-154
FanDuel
Sam LaPorta
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Sam LaPorta
Receptions
over
-172
FanDuel
under
+128
FanDuel
Travis Etienne
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tyler Shough
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tyler Shough
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 36.5 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
DET · 17 games, 578 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
34.0 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 6.2% of dropbacks
7.9 yards per attempt · 68.0% completions · 0.173 EPA per dropback
NO has allowed 6.8 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 43.0 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.