0.5 points short of 70.5 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
DET-6.5FanDuel
NO+7DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NO
25.8%
DET
74.2%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.6%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.6%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Tyler Shough · NOQB Index componentsJared Goff · DET
70 · A
Index
77 · A
41.0
Attempts / gm
38.2
6.0%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.4%
66.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs DET
Tyler Shough
NO · 5 games, 205 attempts
70
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
2nd of 34
41.0 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 6.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
22nd of 34
6.3 yards per attempt · 66.8% completions · -0.023 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
9th of 32
DET has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 244 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Open
Opened -7 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
3 reprices since, 1.5 points of movement in all. It closed -6.5 — the favourite is 0.5 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -7 to -6.5 along the way, retracing 1 point of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Aug 16, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
0.5 points at once — -7 to -6.5 on Thu, Aug 6, 5 AM ET.
Held 7
It sat on 7 for 14 days, then left it on Mon, Aug 31, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 19 prices on record
Open
Opened 49.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
18 reprices since, 18 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from 47.5 to 50.5 along the way, retracing 18 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Aug 13, 2 AM ET.
89% 5+ days out11% 5–2 days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 49.5 to 48.5 on Thu, Aug 6, 5 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
The total
Totals of 49.5 went over 53 of 126 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 47
Aidan Hutchinson
Sacks
0.5
over
-172
FanDuel
under
—
Alim McNeill
Sacks
0.5
over
+162
FanDuel
under
—
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Receiving Yards
77.5market 50% over
we project74.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Receptions
6.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Anfernee Jennings
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Carl Granderson
Sacks
0.5
over
+168
FanDuel
under
—
Chase Young
Sacks
0.5
over
-102
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Olave
Receiving Yards
75.5market 50% over
we project107.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Chris Olave
Receptions
6.5market 44% over3.0pp between books — shop it
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Chris Olave
Rushing Yards
0.5
over
+1260
DraftKings
under
—
Daniel Carlson
Kicking Points
6.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Devaughn Vele
Receiving Yards
39.5market 50% over
we project50.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Devaughn Vele
Receptions
3.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Devaughn Vele
Rushing Yards
0.5
over
+575
DraftKings
under
—
Isaac TeSlaa
Receiving Yards
17.5market 49% over
we project37.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Isaac TeSlaa
Receptions
1.5market 43% over4.1pp between books — shop it
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Jack Campbell
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Jahmyr Gibbs
Carries
19.5market 46% over
we project21.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receiving Yards
30.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receptions
4.5market 44% over
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Jahmyr Gibbs
Rushing Yards
83.5market 50% over
we project100.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jake Bates
Kicking Points
7.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+109
DraftKings
Jameson Williams
Receiving Yards
58.5market 50% over
we project55.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jameson Williams
Receptions
3.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Jared Goff
Carries
1.5
we project2.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-172
DraftKings
under
—
Jared Goff
Completions
22.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Interceptions
0.5market 43% over
over
+121
DraftKings
under
-156
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Passing Yards
261.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jared Goff
Rushing Yards
0.5market 41% over1.6pp between books — shop it
we project3.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+142
FanDuel
under
-169
DraftKings
Juwan Johnson
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project49.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Juwan Johnson
Receptions
4.5market 41% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
+128
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Juwan Johnson
Rushing Yards
0.5
over
+3500
DraftKings
under
—
Kaden Elliss
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Sam LaPorta
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project63.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Sam LaPorta
Receptions
3.5market 56% over3.4pp between books — shop it
over
-149
DraftKings
under
+128
FanDuel
Travis Etienne
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Travis Etienne
Receptions
2.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Travis Etienne
Rushing Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project42.7/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Travis Etienne Jr.
Carries
14.5market 48% over
we project10.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-122
DraftKings
Travis Etienne Jr.
Receiving Yards
14.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Travis Etienne Jr.
Receptions
2.5market 52% over
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
Travis Etienne Jr.
Rushing Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project42.7/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Carries
4.5market 43% over
we project3.2/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-154
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Completions
21.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Interceptions
0.5market 52% over
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-104
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Passing Yards
246.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tyler Shough
Rushing Yards
16.5market 50% over
we project14.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.0%
6.3
Yards / att
7.8
326.2
Air yards / gm
302.4
-0.023
EPA / dropback
0.323
+1.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NO
Jared Goff
DET · 5 games, 191 attempts
77
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
6th of 34
38.2 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 60% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
10th of 34
7.8 yards per attempt · 67.0% completions · 0.323 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
10th of 32
NO has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 281 yards36 attempts × 7.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 28.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Chris Olave27.6% target share · 17.6 PPR last 4
Devaughn Vele18.9% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Bryce Lance8.7% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Amon-Ra St. Brown30.3% target share · 18.9 PPR last 4
Jameson Williams15.4% target share · 12.3 PPR last 4
Isaac TeSlaa10.1% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Travis Etienne27.2% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 3
Kendre Miller25.4% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4
Alvin Kamara24.6% of team carries · 9.4 PPR last 4
Jahmyr Gibbs82.0% of team carries · 30 PPR last 4
Juwan Johnson16.3% target share · 12.8 PPR last 4
Noah Fant6.6% target share · 8.6 PPR last 4
Sam LaPorta19.7% target share · 16.7 PPR last 4
Brock Wright3.2% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4