Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
The two prices add up to 104.6%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
TB · 17 games, 543 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
31.9 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 6.2% of dropbacks
6.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · 0.001 EPA per dropback
CIN has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 674 prices on record
Opened 51.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
673 reprices since, 2436 points of movement in all. It sits 81.5 — 30 points higher than the open. It ranged from 23.5 to 81.5 along the way, retracing 2406 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 1, 8 AM ET.
58 points at once — 81.5 to 23.5 on Wed, Sep 2, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 3.5 covered 325 of 656 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 414 of 656.
No history held for a total of 81.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
Baker Mayfield
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Baker Mayfield
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Bucky Irving
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Chase Brown
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Emeka Egbuka
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Emeka Egbuka
Receptions
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-166
FanDuel
Ja'Marr Chase
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ja'Marr Chase
Receptions
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-154
FanDuel
Joe Burrow
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Joe Burrow
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tee Higgins
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Tee Higgins
Receptions
over
-140
FanDuel
under
+106
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 39.0 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
CIN · 12 games, 416 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
34.7 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
6.0 yards per attempt · 60.3% completions · -0.094 EPA per dropback
TB has allowed 7.6 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 42.5 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.