Final · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33
Opened
-3.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-3.5
Unmoved
Total
50.5
Prices archived
178
8 spread · 44 total
0.5 points past 3
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
TB
35.4%
CIN
64.6%
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
4.6%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.6%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Baker Mayfield · TBQB Index componentsJoe Burrow · CIN
47 · C
Index
69 · B+
32.0
Attempts / gm
37.8
11.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.5%
63.5%
Completion
QB Index · vs CIN
Baker Mayfield
TB · 3 games, 96 attempts
47
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
15th of 34
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 11.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 63.5% completions · -0.274 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
13th of 32
CIN has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 170 yards
The life of this number: the FanDuel spread opened -3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff and never moved.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 51.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed 50.5 — 1 point lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 1, 2 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 51.5 to 50.5 on Tue, Sep 1, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3.5 covered 325 of 656 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 414 of 656.
The total
Totals of 50.5 went over 48 of 86 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 42
Andrei Iosivas
Receiving Yards
14.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-118
DraftKings
Andrei Iosivas
Receptions
1.5market 45% over
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-143
DraftKings
Baker Mayfield
Carries
3.5market 49% over
we project3.7/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Baker Mayfield
Completions
21.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Baker Mayfield
Interceptions
0.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Baker Mayfield
Passing Yards
232.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Baker Mayfield
Rushing Yards
15.5market 49% over1.8pp between books — shop it
we project21.7/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Bucky Irving
Carries
14.5market 48% over
we project15.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-104
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Receiving Yards
13.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Receptions
2.5market 39% over
over
+144
DraftKings
under
-185
DraftKings
Bucky Irving
Rushing Yards
59.5market 49% over
we project81.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Cade Otton
Receiving Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project36.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Cade Otton
Receptions
3.5market 46% over3.9pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Chase Brown
Carries
14.5market 51% over
we project14.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Chase Brown
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Chase Brown
Receptions
3.5market 49% over
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Chase Brown
Rushing Yards
58.5market 50% over
we project49.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Chase McLaughlin
Kicking Points
7.5market 46% over
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Chris Godwin
Receiving Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project35.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Chris Godwin
Receptions
3.5market 57% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
-138
FanDuel
under
+119
DraftKings
Emeka Egbuka
Receiving Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project38.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Emeka Egbuka
Receptions
4.5market 48% over6.1pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Evan McPherson
Kicking Points
8.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Ja'Marr Chase
Receiving Yards
85.5market 50% over
we project57.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Ja'Marr Chase
Receptions
7.5market 44% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-145
DraftKings
Jalen McMillan
Receiving Yards
34.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Jalen McMillan
Receptions
2.5market 56% over
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Joe Burrow
Carries
2.5market 53% over
we project3.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Completions
24.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Interceptions
0.5market 43% over
over
+119
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Passing Yards
267.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Rushing Yards
6.5market 52% over
we project9.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-104
DraftKings
Kenneth Gainwell
Receiving Yards
20.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Kenneth Gainwell
Receptions
3.5market 42% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
+126
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Kenneth Gainwell
Rushing Yards
21.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Mike Gesicki
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over
we project39.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Mike Gesicki
Receptions
2.5market 43% over
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Samaje Perine
Receiving Yards
6.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Samaje Perine
Receptions
1.5market 38% over
over
+146
DraftKings
under
-188
FanDuel
Samaje Perine
Rushing Yards
17.5market 50% over
we project22.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Tee Higgins
Receiving Yards
65.5market 50% over
we project84.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Tee Higgins
Receptions
4.5market 58% over3.1pp between books — shop it
over
-140
FanDuel
under
+124
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
71.4%
6.4
Yards / att
7.2
284.0
Air yards / gm
270.4
-0.274
EPA / dropback
0.166
+1.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+5.4
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 2 of 3225.5 yards in 0 of 3250.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs TB
Joe Burrow
CIN · 5 games, 189 attempts
69
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
7th of 34
37.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 71.4% completions · 0.166 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
16th of 32
TB has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 260 yards36 attempts × 7.2 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Emeka Egbuka22.6% target share · 10.5 PPR last 4
Chris Godwin Jr.14.4% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Ted Hurst III11.0% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Tee Higgins23.1% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Ja'Marr Chase20.4% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Dohnte Meyers9.7% target share · 6.1 PPR last 4
Bucky Irving57.9% of team carries · 14.6 PPR last 4
Kenny Gainwell12.8% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4
Sean Tucker6.0% of team carries · 4.4 PPR last 2
Chase Brown64.5% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
Cade Otton18.5% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Mike Gesicki9.1% target share · 13 PPR last 4
Tanner Hudson3.8% target share · 4.1 PPR last 4
Drew Sample3.2% target share · 2.5 PPR last 3