Sitting on 3 — the most valuable number it can hold
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CHI
61.5%
CAR
38.5%
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
4.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Tyson Bagent · CHIQB Index componentsBryce Young · CAR
21 · F
Index
91 · S
21.3
Attempts / gm
40.5
5.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.8%
65.6%
Completion
QB Index · vs CAR
Tyson Bagent
CHI · 3 games, 64 attempts
21
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
32nd of 34
21.3 attempts per game · team runs 71 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 5.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · -0.077 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
22nd of 32
CAR has allowed 6.7 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 207 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened +2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 0.5 points of movement in all. It closed +3 — the favourite is 0.5 points bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 8, 2 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
0.5 points at once — +2.5 to +3 on Tue, Sep 8, 2 AM ET.
Held 3
It closed on 3, having held it for 5 days.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 2 points of movement in all. It closed 47.5 — 2 points higher than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Aug 31, 2 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
2 points at once — 45.5 to 47.5 on Mon, Aug 31, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
The total
Totals of 47.5 went over 104 of 217 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 56
Austin Booker
Sacks
0.5
over
+360
FanDuel
under
—
Bryce Young
Carries
3.5market 47% over
we project1.5/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-127
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Completions
19.5market 54% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Interceptions
0.5market 46% over
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Passing Yards
209.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Bryce Young
Rushing Yards
13.5market 50% over
we project4.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Cairo Santos
Kicking Points
7.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-119
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Carries
4.5market 42% over
over
+124
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Completions
20.5market 48% over
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Interceptions
0.5market 43% over
over
+119
DraftKings
under
-154
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Passing Yards
226.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Caleb Williams
Rushing Yards
19.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Chuba Hubbard
Carries
13.5market 46% over
we project15.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Chuba Hubbard
Receiving Yards
10.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Chuba Hubbard
Receptions
1.5market 61% over4.5pp between books — shop it
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+139
DraftKings
Chuba Hubbard
Rushing Yards
50.5market 50% over
we project76.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Cole Kmet
Receiving Yards
13.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Cole Kmet
Receptions
1.5market 51% over
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-108
DraftKings
Colston Loveland
Receiving Yards
53.5market 50% over
we project22.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Colston Loveland
Receptions
4.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Carries
13.5market 52% over
we project15.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-104
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Receiving Yards
13.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Receptions
2.5market 38% over
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-196
DraftKings
D'Andre Swift
Rushing Yards
61.5market 50% over
we project70.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Darren Waller
Receiving Yards
16.5market 49% over
we project37.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Darren Waller
Receptions
1.5market 59% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+140
FanDuel
Dayo Odeyingbo
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Derrick Brown
Sacks
0.5
over
+250
FanDuel
under
—
Grady Jarrett
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Jaelan Phillips
Sacks
0.5
over
+154
FanDuel
under
—
Jalen Coker
Receiving Yards
39.5market 50% over
we project74.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jalen Coker
Receptions
3.5market 54% over
over
-128
FanDuel
under
+105
DraftKings
Jonathon Brooks
Carries
8.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Jonathon Brooks
Receiving Yards
9.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Jonathon Brooks
Receptions
1.5market 51% over
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Jonathon Brooks
Rushing Yards
33.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Kalif Raymond
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project45.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Kalif Raymond
Receptions
1.5market 51% over
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Kyle Monangai
Carries
7.5market 53% over
we project15.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Kyle Monangai
Receiving Yards
5.5market 52% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Kyle Monangai
Receptions
1.5market 33% over
over
+184
DraftKings
under
-244
DraftKings
Kyle Monangai
Rushing Yards
31.5market 49% over
we project81.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Luther Burden III
Receiving Yards
58.5market 50% over
we project53.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Luther Burden III
Receptions
4.5market 55% over
over
-143
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Montez Sweat
Sacks
0.5
over
+106
FanDuel
under
—
Princely Umanmielen
Sacks
0.5
over
+400
FanDuel
under
—
Rome Odunze
Receiving Yards
39.5market 49% over
we project54.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Rome Odunze
Receptions
3.5market 44% over
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-149
DraftKings
Ryan Fitzgerald
Kicking Points
6.5market 54% over
over
-137
DraftKings
under
+107
DraftKings
Tershawn Wharton
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Tetairoa McMillan
Receiving Yards
60.5market 50% over
we project96.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Tetairoa McMillan
Receptions
4.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Tommy Tremble
Receiving Yards
12.5market 49% over
we project20.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Tommy Tremble
Receptions
1.5market 48% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Xavier Legette
Receiving Yards
18.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Xavier Legette
Receptions
1.5market 62% over
over
-196
DraftKings
under
+152
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
62.3%
6.4
Yards / att
7.8
144.3
Air yards / gm
364.8
-0.077
EPA / dropback
0.240
+1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+6.1
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.3 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
100.5 yards in 1 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CHI
Bryce Young
CAR · 4 games, 162 attempts
91
index
S
Volumeweight 0.40
3rd of 34
40.5 attempts per game · team runs 65 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 5.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
6th of 34
7.8 yards per attempt · 62.3% completions · 0.240 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
2nd of 32
CHI has allowed 8.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 300 yards38 attempts × 7.8 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.3 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
300.5 yards in 2 of 4325.5 yards in 2 of 4350.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
This line sits on 3, which was the exact final margin in 1,046 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Luther Burden III21.7% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Rome Odunze18.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Kalif Raymond16.8% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Tetairoa McMillan26.5% target share · 18.6 PPR last 4
Jalen Coker15.0% target share · 17.4 PPR last 3
John Metchie III6.8% target share · 5.5 PPR last 3
D'Andre Swift45.9% of team carries · 12.1 PPR last 4
Kyle Monangai35.3% of team carries · 14.8 PPR last 4
Roschon Johnson5.3% of team carries · 4.1 PPR last 3
Chuba Hubbard70.5% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
Colston Loveland14.3% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Cole Kmet5.6% target share · 1.3 PPR last 4
Sam Roush3.1% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
Darren Waller12.9% target share · 10 PPR last 4
