Wednesday, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET
Where the best number is
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
The two prices add up to 104.3%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
NE · 17 games, 492 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
28.9 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 50% pass · sacked on 8.7% of dropbacks
8.9 yards per attempt · 72.0% completions · 0.306 EPA per dropback
SEA has allowed 6.0 yards per attempt across 17 games
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 513 prices on record
Opened 44.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 43 days before kickoff.
512 reprices since, 1189 points of movement in all. It sits 75.5 — 31 points higher than the open. It ranged from 19.5 to 75.5 along the way, retracing 1158 points of that movement.
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 2, 8 AM ET.
56 points at once — 75.5 to 19.5 on Mon, Aug 31, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
Favourites of 3.5 covered 325 of 656 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 414 of 656.
No history held for a total of 75.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Over line.
A.J. Brown
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
A.J. Brown
Receptions
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+112
FanDuel
AJ Barner
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
AJ Barner
Receptions
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+112
FanDuel
Cooper Kupp
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cooper Kupp
Receptions
over
-128
FanDuel
under
-104
FanDuel
Demario Douglas
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Demario Douglas
Receptions
over
-162
FanDuel
under
+122
FanDuel
Drake Maye
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Drake Maye
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
George Holani
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Hunter Henry
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Hunter Henry
Receptions
over
+134
FanDuel
under
-180
FanDuel
Jadarian Price
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receptions
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
Rashid Shaheed
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Rashid Shaheed
Receptions
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-122
FanDuel
Rashid Shaheed
Rushing Yards
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-152
FanDuel
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receptions
over
-188
FanDuel
under
+140
FanDuel
Rhamondre Stevenson
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Romeo Doubs
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Romeo Doubs
Receptions
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-154
FanDuel
Sam Darnold
Passing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Sam Darnold
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
TreVeyon Henderson
Receiving Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
TreVeyon Henderson
Receptions
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-130
FanDuel
TreVeyon Henderson
Rushing Yards
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. No games played yet this season for at least one side, so those figures are last season’s. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 36.0 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
SEA · 17 games, 477 attempts · 2025 figures
No games played yet this season — every figure here is from 2025.
28.1 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks
8.5 yards per attempt · 67.7% completions · 0.148 EPA per dropback
NE has allowed 6.7 yards per attempt across 17 games
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 39.5 points implied.
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.