Final · New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13
Opened
-3.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-3
+0.5 since open
Total
44.5
Prices archived
236
20 spread · 39 total
Sitting on 3 — the most valuable number it can hold0.5 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
SEA-3DraftKings
NE+3.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NE
38.7%
SEA
61.3%
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Drake Maye · NEQB Index componentsSam Darnold · SEA
46 · C
Index
35 · D
30.2
Attempts / gm
29.8
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.6%
65.6%
QB Index · vs SEA
Drake Maye
NE · 5 games, 151 attempts
46
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
19th of 34
30.2 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
8th of 34
8.1 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · 0.126 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
32nd of 32
SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 238 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 43 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 0.5 points of movement in all. It closed -3 — the favourite is 0.5 points smaller than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 8, 8 AM ET.
100% Final two days
Biggest move
0.5 points at once — -3.5 to -3 on Tue, Sep 8, 8 AM ET.
Held 3
It closed on 3, having held it for 36 hours.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
The total
Totals of 44.5 went over 129 of 294 times.
The range clears a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 66
A.J. Barner
Receiving Yards
24.5market 51% over
we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
A.J. Barner
Receptions
2.5market 58% over
over
-161
DraftKings
under
+125
DraftKings
A.J. Brown
Receiving Yards
64.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
A.J. Brown
Receptions
5.5market 46% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-125
FanDuel
AJ Barner
Receiving Yards
24.5market 50% over
we project24.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
AJ Barner
Receptions
2.5market 57% over
over
-154
FanDuel
under
+116
FanDuel
Andres Borregales
Kicking Points
6.5market 52% over
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Byron Murphy II
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Christian Barmore
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Cooper Kupp
Receiving Yards
29.5market 50% over
we project25.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Cooper Kupp
Receptions
2.5market 54% over
over
-132
FanDuel
under
+103
DraftKings
Corey Kiner
Rushing Yards
8.5market 49% over2.8pp between books — shop it
we project16.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Dante Fowler Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
DeMarcus Lawrence
Sacks
0.5
over
+116
FanDuel
under
—
Demario Douglas
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over
we project29.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Demario Douglas
Receptions
1.5market 61% over
over
-185
DraftKings
under
+142
DraftKings
Derick Hall
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Drake Maye
Carries
5.5market 47% over
we project6.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Drake Maye
Completions
20.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Drake Maye
Interceptions
0.5market 51% over
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Drake Maye
Passing Yards
229.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Drake Maye
Rushing Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project32.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Dre'Mont Jones
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Eli Raridon
Receiving Yards
6.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Eli Raridon
Receptions
0.5market 57% over3.0pp between books — shop it
over
-138
FanDuel
under
+121
DraftKings
Elijah Arroyo
Receiving Yards
9.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Elijah Arroyo
Receptions
0.5market 64% over
over
-215
FanDuel
under
+158
FanDuel
Elijah Ponder
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
George Holani
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
George Holani
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+121
DraftKings
George Holani
Rushing Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project15.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Hunter Henry
Receiving Yards
33.5market 50% over
we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Hunter Henry
Receptions
3.5market 40% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+148
FanDuel
under
-172
DraftKings
Jadarian Price
Carries
12.5market 52% over
we project9.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-103
DraftKings
Jadarian Price
Receiving Yards
7.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jadarian Price
Receptions
1.5market 45% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Jadarian Price
Rushing Yards
50.5market 50% over
we project39.7/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jarran Reed
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Jason Myers
Kicking Points
7.5market 52% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-102
DraftKings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receiving Yards
81.5market 50% over
we project116.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receptions
6.5market 48% over
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Kyle Williams
Receiving Yards
0.5market 35% over
we project27.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+171
DraftKings
under
-220
FanDuel
Kyle Williams
Receptions
0.5market 37% over3.7pp between books — shop it
over
+156
DraftKings
under
-180
FanDuel
Leonard Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Mack Hollins
Receiving Yards
8.5market 50% over
we project52.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Mack Hollins
Receptions
1.5market 40% over4.0pp between books — shop it
over
+162
FanDuel
under
-175
DraftKings
Milton Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
Rashid Shaheed
Receiving Yards
31.5market 49% over
we project19.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Rashid Shaheed
Receptions
2.5market 47% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-122
FanDuel
Rashid Shaheed
Rushing Yards
2.5market 49% over
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-118
DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson
Carries
15.5market 51% over
we project11.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-108
DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receptions
3.5market 44% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson
Rushing Yards
57.5market 50% over
we project45.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Robert Spillane
Sacks
0.5
over
+580
FanDuel
under
—
Romeo Doubs
Receiving Yards
35.5market 50% over
we project43.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Romeo Doubs
Receptions
3.5market 44% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+114
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Sam Darnold
Carries
2.5market 45% over
we project1.3/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+109
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Completions
20.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Interceptions
0.5market 51% over
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Sam Darnold
Passing Yards
228.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Sam Darnold
Rushing Yards
5.5market 50% over2.1pp between books — shop it
we project4.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-114
DraftKings
TreVeyon Henderson
Receiving Yards
7.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
TreVeyon Henderson
Receptions
1.5market 44% over
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-148
FanDuel
TreVeyon Henderson
Rushing Yards
24.5market 50% over
we project40.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Uchenna Nwosu
Sacks
0.5
over
+205
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
60.4%
8.1
Yards / att
6.9
277.2
Air yards / gm
215.4
0.126
EPA / dropback
-0.135
+6.2
CPOE
completion % over expected
-4.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 5 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NE
Sam Darnold
SEA · 5 games, 149 attempts
35
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
20th of 34
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 8.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.9 yards per attempt · 60.4% completions · -0.135 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
20th of 32
NE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 209 yards30 attempts × 6.9 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
This line sits on 3, which was the exact final margin in 1,046 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Romeo Doubs15.3% target share · 11.7 PPR last 4
DeMario Douglas14.7% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4
Mack Hollins13.3% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34.9% target share · 24 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed14.8% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp13.2% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Rhamondre Stevenson39.9% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
TreVeyon Henderson29.4% of team carries · 6.6 PPR last 4
Corey Kiner14.0% of team carries · 2.2 PPR last 4
Emanuel Wilson54.0% of team carries · 11.7 PPR last 4
Hunter Henry12.7% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Eli Raridon6.0% target share · 6 PPR last 4
AJ Barner12.7% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
