Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
GB
32.2%
LAR
67.8%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jordan Love · GBQB Index componentsMatthew Stafford · LA
49 · C
Index
64 · B+
37.0
Attempts / gm
43.2
5.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
3.1%
60.5%
Completion
QB Index · vs LA
Jordan Love
GB · 5 games, 185 attempts
49
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 65% pass · sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.110 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
31st of 32
LA has allowed 5.7 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 267 yards
The life of this number: the FanDuel spread opened -5.5 on Fri, Aug 28, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 5.5 covered 125 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 178 of 275.
The total
Totals of 48.5 went over 95 of 182 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
64.4%
7.6
Yards / att
7.3
322.2
Air yards / gm
374.2
0.110
EPA / dropback
0.143
-2.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+0.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 3 of 5325.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs GB
Matthew Stafford
LA · 5 games, 216 attempts
64
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
1st of 34
43.2 attempts per game · team runs 69 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 3.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.3 yards per attempt · 64.4% completions · 0.143 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
25th of 32
GB has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 309 yards42 attempts × 7.3 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
300.5 yards in 4 of 5325.5 yards in 3 of 5350.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Matthew Golden24.7% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Christian Watson22.0% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Skyy Moore7.7% target share · 2.6 PPR last 4
Davante Adams21.4% target share · 22.4 PPR last 4
Puka Nacua21.4% target share · 25.9 PPR last 3
Konata Mumpfield6.7% target share · 5.8 PPR last 4
MarShawn Lloyd44.4% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Kaleb Johnson30.0% of team carries · 2.6 PPR last 4
Chris Brooks16.7% of team carries · 3.1 PPR last 4
Kyren Williams57.4% of team carries · 23.5 PPR last 4
Tucker Kraft15.9% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Jonnu Smith3.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 3
Tyler Higbee11.9% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Terrance Ferguson5.7% target share · 6.4 PPR last 3
