Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
PIT
56.3%
NO
43.7%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Aaron Rodgers · PITQB Index componentsTyler Shough · NO
58 · B
Index
69 · B+
36.8
Attempts / gm
41.0
7.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.0%
59.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs NO
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · 5 games, 184 attempts
58
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
10th of 34
36.8 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.7 yards per attempt · 59.8% completions · -0.071 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
10th of 32
NO has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 232 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It sits +2.5 — the favourite is 1 point bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Mon, Oct 19, 2 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — +1.5 to +2.5 on Mon, Oct 19, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 40.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 88 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 4 points of movement in all. It sits 44.5 — 4 points higher than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
4 points at once — 40.5 to 44.5 on Tue, Oct 13, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 44.5 went over 129 of 294 times.
The range clears a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
66.8%
6.7
Yards / att
6.3
315.0
Air yards / gm
326.2
-0.071
EPA / dropback
-0.023
-2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs PIT
Tyler Shough
NO · 5 games, 205 attempts
69
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
2nd of 34
41.0 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 6.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
22nd of 34
6.3 yards per attempt · 66.8% completions · -0.023 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
11th of 32
PIT has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 244 yards39 attempts × 6.3 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
DK Metcalf21.1% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Roman Wilson14.3% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Germie Bernard11.4% target share · 6.8 PPR last 4
Chris Olave27.6% target share · 17.6 PPR last 4
Devaughn Vele18.9% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Bryce Lance8.7% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4
Jaylen Warren73.7% of team carries · 20.7 PPR last 4
Rico Dowdle15.8% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 2
Travis Homer5.3% of team carries · 0.5 PPR last 3
Travis Etienne27.2% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 3
Pat Freiermuth14.9% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Darnell Washington9.1% target share · 6.6 PPR last 4
Juwan Johnson16.3% target share · 12.8 PPR last 4
Noah Fant6.6% target share · 8.6 PPR last 4
