Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars

Final · Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31

Opened

-1.5

First seen Jul 29

Closed

+2.5

+4 since open

Total

65.5

Prices archived

140

25 spread · 19 total

0.5 points short of 34 point gap between books right now

Where the best number is

JAX+2.5FanDuel

HOU+1.5DraftKings

Over65.5DraftKings

Under66.5FanDuel

Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.

What the market says

Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.

HOU

49.0%

JAX

51.0%

Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.

6.1%the book's margin on this game

The two prices add up to 106.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.

Head to head

C.J. Stroud · HOUQB Index componentsTrevor Lawrence · JAX

73 · A

Index

57 · B

37.0

Attempts / gm

28.6

7.0%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

6.5%

64.3%

Completion

QB Index · vs JAX

C.J. Stroud

HOU · 5 games, 185 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

9th of 34

37.0 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 61% pass · sacked on 7.0% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

12th of 34

7.6 yards per attempt · 64.3% completions · 0.089 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

8th of 32

JAX has allowed 7.7 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 262 yards

The life of this number

Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record

Open

Opened -1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.

Move

6 reprices since, 15 points of movement in all. It closed +2.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -3 to +3.5 along the way, retracing 11 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Wed, Oct 7, 2 AM ET.

53% 5+ days out47% Gameday

Biggest move

6 points at once — -2.5 to +3.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 12 PM ET.

Crossed 3

-2.5 to +3.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 12 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.

Crossed 3

+3.5 to +2.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 1 PM ET — back through 3.

Held 3

It sat on 3 for 5 days, then left it on Sun, Oct 11, 8 PM ET.

The life of this number

Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record

Open

Opened 42.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 81 days before kickoff.

Move

6 reprices since, 29 points of movement in all. It closed 65.5 — 23 points higher than the open. It ranged from 41.5 to 66.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.

When it moved

Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 18, 12 PM ET.

7% 5+ days out93% Gameday

Biggest move

24 points at once — 42.5 to 66.5 on Sun, Oct 18, 12 PM ET.

Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 269 of 504.

No history held for a total of 65.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

390 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

DraftKingsFanDuel

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The total

Over line.

DraftKingsFanDuel

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Player props · 79

Antonio Johnson Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+6500

DraftKings

under

—

Arik Armstead

Sacks

0.5

over

+235

FanDuel

under

—

Azeez Al-Shaair Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1300

DraftKings

under

—

Bhayshul Tuten

Carries

15.5market 52% over

we project16.4/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-125

DraftKings

under

-103

DraftKings

Bhayshul Tuten

Receiving Yards

40.5market 49% over10.9pp between books — shop it

over

+140

FanDuel

under

-125

DraftKings

Bhayshul Tuten

Receptions

1.5market 56% over

over

-149

DraftKings

under

+118

FanDuel

Bhayshul Tuten

Rushing Yards

63.5market 50% over

we project69.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Brenton Strange

Receiving Yards

38.5market 44% over11.6pp between books — shop it

we project47.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+140

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Brenton Strange

Receptions

3.5market 55% over2.4pp between books — shop it

over

-143

DraftKings

under

+118

FanDuel

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receiving Yards

0.5market 19% over21.9pp between books — shop it

we project21.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+550

DraftKings

under

-175

DraftKings

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receptions

1.5market 9% over49.7pp between books — shop it

over

+1800

DraftKings

under

-108

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Carries

3.5market 44% over

we project3.0/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

+115

DraftKings

under

-147

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Completions

22.5market 50% over

over

-114

DraftKings

under

-114

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Interceptions

0.5market 47% over

over

-101

DraftKings

under

-127

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Pass Attempts

36.5market 50% over

we project37.0/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-115

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

C.J. Stroud

Passing TDs

1.5market 40% over1.5pp between books — shop it

over

+133

DraftKings

under

-164

FanDuel

C.J. Stroud

Passing Yards

293.5market 50% over

over

-118

FanDuel

under

-112

FanDuel

C.J. Stroud

Rushing Yards

4.5market 66% over14.9pp between books — shop it

we project14.2/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

-125

FanDuel

under

+170

DraftKings

Calen Bullock Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+500

DraftKings

under

—

Cam Little

Kicking Points

7.5market 47% over

over

+102

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Carries

4.5market 47% over

we project5.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

+102

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Rushing Yards

52.5market 53% over14.5pp between books — shop it

we project22.6/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

+136

FanDuel

under

-105

DraftKings

Dalton Schultz

Receiving Yards

33.5market 29% over12.7pp between books — shop it

we project48.8/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+330

DraftKings

under

-132

DraftKings

Dalton Schultz

Receptions

3.5market 47% over

over

+100

FanDuel

under

-127

DraftKings

Danielle Hunter

Sacks

0.5

over

-172

FanDuel

under

—

DaVon Hamilton

Sacks

0.5

over

+520

FanDuel

under

—

Dennis Gardeck

Sacks

0.5

over

+270

FanDuel

under

—

Derek Stingley Jr. Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+450

DraftKings

under

—

Eric Murray Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+15000

DraftKings

under

—

Foster Moreau

Receiving Yards

6.5market 50% over

we project13.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-113

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Foster Moreau

Receptions

2.5market 16% over

over

+600

DraftKings

under

-286

DraftKings

Foyesade Oluokun

Sacks

0.5

over

+490

FanDuel

under

—

Foyesade Oluokun Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1400

DraftKings

under

—

Jadeveon Clowney

Sacks

0.5

over

+205

FanDuel

under

—

Jakobi Meyers

Receiving Yards

34.5market 50% over

we project40.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Jakobi Meyers

Receptions

3.5market 42% over

over

+126

DraftKings

under

-161

DraftKings

Jarrian Jones Defensive

Interceptions

1.5

over

+10000

DraftKings

under

—

Jawhar Jordan

Rushing Yards

36.5market 49% over24.6pp between books — shop it

over

+260

DraftKings

under

-120

FanDuel

Jaylin Noel

Receiving Yards

107.5market 19% over26.1pp between books — shop it

we project45.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+500

DraftKings

under

-180

FanDuel

Jaylin Noel

Receptions

1.5market 51% over3.5pp between books — shop it

over

-118

DraftKings

under

+102

FanDuel

Josh Cameron

Receiving Yards

0.5market 40% over22.7pp between books — shop it

we project23.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+390

DraftKings

under

-178

FanDuel

Josh Cameron

Receptions

1.5market 11% over47.5pp between books — shop it

over

+1400

DraftKings

under

-112

FanDuel

Josh Hines-Allen

Sacks

0.5

over

-118

FanDuel

under

—

Ka'imi Fairbairn

Kicking Points

6.5market 54% over

over

-135

DraftKings

under

+106

DraftKings

Kamari Lassiter Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+500

DraftKings

under

—

Kamari Ramsey Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+750

DraftKings

under

—

Kayshon Boutte

Receiving Yards

24.5market 18% over41.3pp between books — shop it

we project30.6/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+750

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Kayshon Boutte

Receptions

2.5market 19% over24.9pp between books — shop it

over

+550

DraftKings

under

-179

DraftKings

Logan Hall

Sacks

0.5

over

+430

FanDuel

under

—

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receiving Yards

34.5market 26% over10.3pp between books — shop it

we project21.3/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+330

DraftKings

under

-182

DraftKings

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receptions

1.5market 55% over1.5pp between books — shop it

over

-139

DraftKings

under

+112

FanDuel

Nate Boerkircher

Receiving Yards

5.5market 49% over

over

-109

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Nate Boerkircher

Receptions

0.5market 59% over4.3pp between books — shop it

over

-164

DraftKings

under

+146

FanDuel

Nico Collins

Receiving Yards

74.5market 40% over

we project83.0/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

+194

FanDuel

under

-111

DraftKings

Nico Collins

Receptions

5.5market 12% over47.8pp between books — shop it

over

+1300

DraftKings

under

-108

FanDuel

Parker Washington

Receiving Yards

84.5market 49% over

we project70.4/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-111

DraftKings

under

-114

FanDuel

Parker Washington

Receptions

4.5market 53% over2.3pp between books — shop it

over

-114

FanDuel

under

+102

DraftKings

Reed Blankenship Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+800

DraftKings

under

—

Ruke Orhorhoro

Sacks

0.5

over

+350

FanDuel

under

—

Sheldon Rankins

Sacks

0.5

over

+240

FanDuel

under

—

Tommy Togiai

Sacks

0.5

over

+430

FanDuel

under

—

Travis Hunter

Receiving Yards

59.5market 46% over37.7pp between books — shop it

over

+750

DraftKings

under

-136

FanDuel

Travis Hunter

Receptions

2.5

over

+250

DraftKings

under

—

Travis Hunter Defensive

Interceptions

0.5

over

+1100

DraftKings

under

—

Travon Walker

Sacks

0.5

over

-102

FanDuel

under

—

Trevor Lawrence

Carries

3.5market 50% over

we project2.8/gm± 0.7 typical error

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-115

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Completions

19.5market 53% over

over

-128

DraftKings

under

+101

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Interceptions

0.5market 52% over

over

-123

DraftKings

under

-104

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Pass Attempts

32.5market 49% over

we project28.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-106

DraftKings

under

-120

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Passing TDs

1.5market 44% over

over

+116

FanDuel

under

-145

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Passing Yards

228.5market 50% over

over

-112

DraftKings

under

-112

DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence

Rushing Yards

11.5market 36% over10.3pp between books — shop it

we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error

over

+240

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Will Anderson Jr.

Sacks

0.5

over

-188

FanDuel

under

—

Woody Marks

Carries

14.5market 50% over

we project8.6/gm± 3.0 typical error

over

-115

DraftKings

under

-111

DraftKings

Woody Marks

Receiving Yards

0.5market 22% over20.3pp between books — shop it

over

+425

DraftKings

under

-196

DraftKings

Woody Marks

Receptions

2.5market 51% over2.6pp between books — shop it

over

-119

DraftKings

under

+100

FanDuel

Woody Marks

Rushing Yards

40.5market 50% over

we project29.8/gm± 15.2 typical error

over

-116

DraftKings

under

-110

FanDuel

Xavier Hutchinson

Receiving Yards

14.5market 49% over

we project46.2/gm± 12.5 typical error

over

-109

DraftKings

under

-113

FanDuel

Xavier Hutchinson

Receptions

1.5market 51% over2.2pp between books — shop it

over

-119

DraftKings

under

-102

FanDuel

Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.