Final · Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19
Opened
+1.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-2.5
-4 since open
Total
33.5
Prices archived
228
36 spread · 28 total
0.5 points short of 31 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
JAX-1.5FanDuel
PHI+2.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
PHI
46.7%
JAX
53.3%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
6.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Jalen Hurts · PHIQB Index componentsTrevor Lawrence · JAX
46 · C
Index
55 · B
30.8
Attempts / gm
28.6
7.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.5%
57.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs JAX
Jalen Hurts
PHI · 5 games, 154 attempts
46
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
18th of 34
30.8 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
27th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.8% completions · -0.058 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
8th of 32
JAX has allowed 7.7 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 173 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 13 prices on record
Open
Opened +1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
12 reprices since, 17 points of movement in all. It closed -2.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -7.5 to +1.5 along the way, retracing 13 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Oct 6, 2 AM ET.
53% 5+ days out6% 5–2 days out41% Gameday
Biggest move
6 points at once — -7.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 12 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-7.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 12 PM ET — back through 3.
Crossed 7
-7.5 to -1.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 12 PM ET — back through 7.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened 45.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 14 points of movement in all. It closed 33.5 — 12 points lower than the open. It ranged from 33.5 to 45.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 12 PM ET.
36% 5+ days out7% 5–2 days out57% Gameday
Biggest move
4 points at once — 41.5 to 37.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 12 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 33.5 went over 18 of 35 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 67
Andrew Mukuba Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Antonio Johnson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Arik Armstead
Sacks
0.5
over
+235
FanDuel
under
—
Bhayshul Tuten
Carries
16.5market 44% over
we project16.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Bhayshul Tuten
Receiving Yards
24.5market 39% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
+158
FanDuel
under
-192
DraftKings
Bhayshul Tuten
Receptions
1.5market 50% over3.3pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-114
DraftKings
Bhayshul Tuten
Rushing Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project69.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Brenton Strange
Receiving Yards
51.5market 50% over
we project47.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Brenton Strange
Receptions
3.5market 45% over2.4pp between books — shop it
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Brian Thomas Jr.
Receiving Yards
24.5market 50% over
we project21.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Brian Thomas Jr.
Receptions
2.5market 38% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
+146
DraftKings
under
-180
FanDuel
Cam Little
Kicking Points
7.5market 53% over
over
-130
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Carries
3.5market 40% over
we project5.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-182
DraftKings
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Rushing Yards
8.5market 48% over
we project22.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-104
FanDuel
under
-125
DraftKings
Cooper DeJean Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+9000
DraftKings
under
—
Dallas Goedert
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project39.7/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Dallas Goedert
Receptions
4.5market 61% over19.0pp between books — shop it
over
+114
FanDuel
under
+140
DraftKings
Dameon Pierce
Rushing Yards
23.5market 50% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Darius Cooper
Receiving Yards
71.5market 36% over2.0pp between books — shop it
we project26.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+174
FanDuel
under
-222
DraftKings
Darius Cooper
Receptions
2.5market 40% over7.0pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Dennis Gardeck
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Dontayvion Wicks
Receiving Yards
47.5market 47% over
we project52.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-125
FanDuel
Dontayvion Wicks
Receptions
3.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Jake Elliott
Kicking Points
5.5market 46% over
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Jakobi Meyers
Receiving Yards
31.5market 50% over
we project40.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jakobi Meyers
Receptions
3.5market 51% over
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Jalen Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
+188
FanDuel
under
—
Jalen Hurts
Carries
3.5market 60% over
we project4.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-182
DraftKings
under
+130
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Completions
19.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Interceptions
0.5market 20% over
over
+370
DraftKings
under
-556
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Pass Attempts
33.5market 50% over
we project30.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Passing TDs
0.5market 65% over
over
-217
DraftKings
under
+168
FanDuel
Jalen Hurts
Passing Yards
186.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts
Rushing Yards
6.5market 51% over
we project21.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Jalyx Hunt
Sacks
0.5
over
+290
FanDuel
under
—
Jarrian Jones Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+10000
DraftKings
under
—
Jihaad Campbell Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+25000
DraftKings
under
—
Jordan Davis
Sacks
0.5
over
+450
FanDuel
under
—
Josh Cameron
Receiving Yards
43.5market 36% over3.7pp between books — shop it
we project23.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+188
FanDuel
under
-222
DraftKings
Josh Cameron
Receptions
1.5market 38% over2.7pp between books — shop it
over
+145
DraftKings
under
-174
FanDuel
Josh Hines-Allen
Sacks
0.5
over
+102
FanDuel
under
—
Jourdan Lewis Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Makai Lemon
Receiving Yards
36.5market 44% over
we project21.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-138
FanDuel
Makai Lemon
Receptions
3.5market 51% over6.5pp between books — shop it
over
+108
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Montaric Brown Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
Moro Ojomo
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
Nolan Smith Jr.
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Parker Washington
Receiving Yards
94.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project70.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Parker Washington
Receptions
4.5market 48% over3.7pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Quinyon Mitchell Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Ruke Orhorhoro
Sacks
0.5
over
+300
FanDuel
under
—
Travon Walker
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Trevor Lawrence
Carries
3.5market 38% over
we project2.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+145
DraftKings
under
-196
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence
Completions
26.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence
Interceptions
1.5market 26% over
over
+265
DraftKings
under
-385
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence
Pass Attempts
38.5market 53% over
we project28.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence
Passing TDs
1.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence
Passing Yards
305.5market 50% over
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence
Rushing Yards
10.5market 51% over3.1pp between books — shop it
we project11.8/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-106
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Will Shipley
Carries
10.5market 47% over
we project4.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-127
DraftKings
Will Shipley
Receiving Yards
13.5market 51% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Will Shipley
Receptions
2.5market 48% over2.1pp between books — shop it
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-118
FanDuel
Will Shipley
Rushing Yards
34.5market 50% over
we project11.4/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Zach Ertz
Receiving Yards
0.5
over
+340
DraftKings
under
—
Zach Ertz
Receptions
1.5market 34% over30.9pp between books — shop it
over
+1600
DraftKings
under
-235
FanDuel
Zack Baun
Sacks
0.5
over
+450
FanDuel
under
—
Zack Baun Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.1%
6.1
Yards / att
8.2
231.8
Air yards / gm
224.8
-0.058
EPA / dropback
0.274
-2.5
CPOE
completion % over expected
+7.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 15.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs PHI
Trevor Lawrence
JAX · 5 games, 143 attempts
55
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
24th of 34
28.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
4th of 34
8.2 yards per attempt · 67.1% completions · 0.274 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
18th of 32
PHI has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 219 yards27 attempts × 8.2 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 3 days, then left it on Sun, Oct 4, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Dontayvion Wicks19.6% target share · 8.4 PPR last 4
DeVonta Smith18.9% target share · 16.2 PPR last 3
Makai Lemon15.4% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Parker Washington25.4% target share · 15.6 PPR last 4
Jakobi Meyers13.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Brian Thomas Jr.13.0% target share · 4.6 PPR last 4
Saquon Barkley30.8% of team carries · 5.8 PPR last 4
Tank Bigsby23.9% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4
Will Shipley17.1% of team carries · 4.4 PPR last 4
Bhayshul Tuten61.2% of team carries · 13.5 PPR last 4
Dallas Goedert11.2% target share · 11.6 PPR last 3
Zach Ertz5.6% target share · 1.7 PPR last 3
Johnny Mundt3.5% target share · 1 PPR last 4
Brenton Strange18.8% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
