Final · Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13
Opened
-1.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
+16.5
+18 since open
Total
43.5
Prices archived
197
33 spread · 29 total
Crossed 3 & 7 & 10 since opening
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
IND
97.6%
WSH
2.4%
We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.
2.3%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 102.3%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Daniel Jones · INDQB Index componentsJayden Daniels · WAS
45 · C
Index
43 · D
35.2
Attempts / gm
25.3
4.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.3%
61.4%
QB Index · vs WAS
Daniel Jones
IND · 5 games, 176 attempts
45
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
11th of 34
35.2 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 61.4% completions · -0.130 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
17th of 32
WAS has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 194 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened -1.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 20 points of movement in all. It closed +16.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -1.5 to +16.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 12 PM ET.
35% 5+ days out65% Gameday
Biggest move
10 points at once — +4.5 to +14.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 12 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+1.5 to +4.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
+4.5 to +14.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 12 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
+4.5 to +14.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 12 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened 49.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 10 points of movement in all. It closed 43.5 — 6 points lower than the open. It ranged from 43.5 to 49.5 along the way, retracing 4 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sat, Oct 3, 12 PM ET.
30% 5+ days out10% 5–2 days out10% Final two days50% Gameday
Biggest move
4 points at once — 47.5 to 43.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 1 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 16.5 covered 6 of 14 games.
Only 14 games at this number — too few to read.
They won outright in 13 of 14.
The total
Totals of 43.5 went over 162 of 326 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 63
Antonio Williams
Receiving Yards
25.5market 50% over
we project31.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Antonio Williams
Receptions
1.5market 63% over8.4pp between books — shop it
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+155
DraftKings
Arden Key
Sacks
0.5
over
+154
FanDuel
under
—
Athan Kaliakmanis
Passing TDs
1.5
over
+185
DraftKings
under
—
Athan Kaliakmanis
Passing Yards
199.5
over
-141
DraftKings
under
—
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Receiving Yards
29.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Receptions
2.5market 46% over22.6pp between books — shop it
over
+195
DraftKings
under
+150
DraftKings
Da'Ron Payne
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Daniel Jones
Carries
3.5market 45% over
we project2.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+111
DraftKings
under
-143
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Completions
20.5market 48% over
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-122
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Interceptions
0.5market 48% over
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Pass Attempts
31.5market 47% over
we project35.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-127
DraftKings
Daniel Jones
Passing TDs
1.5market 46% over
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-132
FanDuel
Daniel Jones
Passing Yards
219.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Daniel Jones
Rushing Yards
11.5market 50% over
we project5.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Darius Slayton
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Darius Slayton
Receptions
1.5market 36% over
over
+168
FanDuel
under
-208
DraftKings
DeForest Buckner
Sacks
0.5
over
+130
FanDuel
under
—
Dorance Armstrong
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Drew Stevens
Kicking Points
6.5market 48% over
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Dyami Brown
Receiving Yards
57.5market 31% over25.0pp between books — shop it
we project17.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+285
DraftKings
under
-128
FanDuel
Dyami Brown
Receptions
2.5market 37% over
over
+230
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Frankie Luvu
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Grover Stewart
Sacks
0.5
over
+430
FanDuel
under
—
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Carries
14.5market 51% over
we project13.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Receiving Yards
5.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-105
DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Receptions
1.5market 40% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
-172
DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Rushing Yards
17.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project47.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Javon Kinlaw
Sacks
0.5
over
+470
FanDuel
under
—
Jonathan Taylor
Carries
21.5market 48% over
we project20.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor
Receptions
2.5market 54% over
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+103
DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor
Rushing Yards
89.5market 50% over
we project79.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Josh Downs
Receiving Yards
16.5market 9% over34.1pp between books — shop it
we project49.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+1500
DraftKings
under
-175
DraftKings
Josh Downs
Receptions
6.5market 51% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
JT Tuimoloau
Sacks
0.5
over
+580
FanDuel
under
—
K'Lavon Chaisson
Sacks
0.5
over
+205
FanDuel
under
—
Kaytron Allen
Rushing Yards
13.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Keenan Allen
Receiving Yards
36.5market 49% over
we project36.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Keenan Allen
Receptions
3.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Laiatu Latu
Sacks
0.5
over
+152
FanDuel
under
—
Laquon Treadwell
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
we project31.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Laquon Treadwell
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-152
DraftKings
under
+118
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Carries
5.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Completions
18.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-108
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Interceptions
0.5market 51% over
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-109
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Pass Attempts
29.5market 52% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-102
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Passing TDs
1.5market 37% over
over
+162
FanDuel
under
-204
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Passing Yards
212.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Marcus Mariota
Rushing Yards
26.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Mo Alie-Cox
Receiving Yards
3.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Odafe Oweh
Sacks
0.5
over
+146
FanDuel
under
—
Seth McGowan
Rushing Yards
6.5market 50% over
we project12.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Sonny Styles
Sacks
0.5
over
+370
FanDuel
under
—
Spencer Shrader
Kicking Points
7.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+109
DraftKings
Stefon Diggs
Receiving Yards
56.5market 50% over
we project42.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Stefon Diggs
Receptions
5.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Terry McLaurin
Receiving Yards
52.5market 50% over
we project50.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Terry McLaurin
Receptions
4.5market 41% over
over
+127
DraftKings
under
-164
DraftKings
Treylon Burks
Receiving Yards
47.5market 36% over
we project21.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-200
FanDuel
Treylon Burks
Receptions
1.5market 42% over16.1pp between books — shop it
over
+120
DraftKings
under
+120
FanDuel
Tyler Warren
Receiving Yards
33.5market 42% over6.7pp between books — shop it
we project42.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+158
FanDuel
under
-167
DraftKings
Tyler Warren
Receptions
5.5market 13% over51.9pp between books — shop it
over
+1300
DraftKings
under
+108
FanDuel
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
60.5%
5.8
Yards / att
6.0
256.0
Air yards / gm
224.3
-0.130
EPA / dropback
0.021
-2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 30.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs IND
Jayden Daniels
WAS · 3 games, 76 attempts
43
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
29th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 7.3% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.0 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.021 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
4th of 32
IND has allowed 8.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 181 yards30 attempts × 6.0 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 13.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 2 of 3175.5 yards in 1 of 3200.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Josh Downs20.5% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4
Keenan Allen17.5% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4
Laquon Treadwell11.4% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Stefon Diggs20.1% target share · 13.3 PPR last 4
Terry McLaurin17.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Antonio Williams14.3% target share · 5 PPR last 4
Jonathan Taylor74.8% of team carries · 18.1 PPR last 4
Seth McGowan12.6% of team carries · 2.3 PPR last 4
Jacory Croskey-Merritt47.9% of team carries · 8.1 PPR last 4
Rachaad White20.7% of team carries · 8.3 PPR last 4
Tyler Warren21.7% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
Chig Okonkwo8.4% target share · 5.4 PPR last 3
John Bates3.9% target share · 2.1 PPR last 3