Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
DEN
44.9%
KC
55.1%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Bo Nix · DENQB Index componentsPatrick Mahomes · KC
31 · F
Index
52 · C
31.5
Attempts / gm
32.0
4.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.5%
60.3%
Completion
QB Index · vs KC
Bo Nix
DEN · 6 games, 189 attempts
31
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
16th of 34
31.5 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 60.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
28th of 32
KC has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 168 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened -3 on Wed, Jul 29, 48 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 2.5 points of movement in all. It closed -2.5 — the favourite is 0.5 points smaller than at the open. It ranged from -3 to -2.5 along the way, retracing 2 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Tue, Sep 8, 8 PM ET.
80% 5+ days out20% 5–2 days out
Biggest move
0.5 points at once — -3 to -2.5 on Tue, Sep 8, 2 AM ET.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 41 days, then left it on Tue, Sep 8, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 43.5 went over 162 of 326 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 45
Adam Trautman
Receiving Yards
7.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Adam Trautman
Receptions
1.5market 34% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
+194
FanDuel
under
-233
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Carries
3.5market 56% over
we project3.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Completions
21.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Interceptions
0.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Passing Yards
227.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Bo Nix
Rushing Yards
15.5market 51% over
we project7.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Courtland Sutton
Receiving Yards
42.5market 51% over
we project20.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Courtland Sutton
Receptions
4.5market 41% over
over
+128
DraftKings
under
-164
DraftKings
Evan Engram
Receiving Yards
22.5market 51% over
we project24.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Evan Engram
Receptions
2.5market 55% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+111
DraftKings
Harrison Butker
Kicking Points
7.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Carries
12.5market 48% over
we project12.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-104
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Receiving Yards
3.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Rushing Yards
49.5market 50% over
we project45.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaylen Waddle
Receiving Yards
53.5market 50% over
we project40.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaylen Waddle
Receptions
4.5market 52% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-102
DraftKings
Kenneth Walker III
Carries
16.5market 47% over
we project21.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Kenneth Walker III
Receiving Yards
17.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Kenneth Walker III
Receptions
3.5market 43% over
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Kenneth Walker III
Rushing Yards
59.5market 50% over
we project134.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Malcolm Roach
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Nik Bonitto
Sacks
0.5
over
-102
FanDuel
under
—
Noah Gray
Receiving Yards
9.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Noah Gray
Receptions
1.5market 40% over
over
+136
DraftKings
under
-174
FanDuel
Pat Bryant
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
we project33.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Pat Bryant
Receptions
2.5market 43% over
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-154
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Carries
3.5market 48% over
we project3.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-122
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Completions
21.5market 47% over
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-127
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Interceptions
0.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Passing Yards
223.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes
Rushing Yards
15.5market 49% over
we project10.3/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Rashee Rice
Receiving Yards
59.5market 50% over
we project63.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Rashee Rice
Receptions
5.5market 47% over5.5pp between books — shop it
over
+102
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
RJ Harvey
Receiving Yards
16.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
RJ Harvey
Receptions
2.5market 48% over2.8pp between books — shop it
over
-102
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
RJ Harvey
Rushing Yards
18.5market 50% over
we project14.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Travis Kelce
Receiving Yards
41.5market 51% over
we project61.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Travis Kelce
Receptions
3.5market 57% over
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+122
DraftKings
Tyquan Thornton
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Tyquan Thornton
Receptions
1.5market 43% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
+117
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Wil Lutz
Kicking Points
6.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+109
DraftKings
Xavier Worthy
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project33.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Xavier Worthy
Receptions
3.5market 45% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-143
DraftKings
Zach Allen
Sacks
0.5
over
+124
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
64.1%
5.6
Yards / att
8.1
154.8
Air yards / gm
222.8
-0.076
EPA / dropback
0.192
-2.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+0.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 3 of 6175.5 yards in 3 of 6200.5 yards in 2 of 6
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs DEN
Patrick Mahomes
KC · 4 games, 128 attempts
52
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
15th of 34
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 34
8.1 yards per attempt · 64.1% completions · 0.192 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
24th of 32
DEN has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 248 yards31 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Jaylen Waddle22.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Courtland Sutton16.2% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Pat Bryant7.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Xavier Worthy18.5% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Rashee Rice14.3% target share · 12.7 PPR last 3
Tyquan Thornton12.6% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
J.K. Dobbins57.0% of team carries · 10.6 PPR last 4
RJ Harvey14.8% of team carries · 11.3 PPR last 4
Jonah Coleman7.0% of team carries · 7.4 PPR last 2
Kenneth Walker III78.4% of team carries · 27.5 PPR last 4
Evan Engram11.0% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Nate Adkins2.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 3
Travis Kelce18.5% target share · 13.2 PPR last 4
Noah Gray6.7% target share · 3 PPR last 4