Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
BAL
29.5%
DAL
70.5%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Lamar Jackson · BALQB Index componentsDak Prescott · DAL
62 · B+
Index
69 · B+
24.0
Attempts / gm
38.4
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
3.0%
70.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs DAL
Lamar Jackson
BAL · 4 games, 96 attempts
62
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
31st of 34
24.0 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 46% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
1st of 34
10.1 yards per attempt · 70.8% completions · 0.363 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
3rd of 32
DAL has allowed 8.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 257 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 7 prices on record
Open
Opened +2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
6 reprices since, 10 points of movement in all. It closed -3.5 — the favourite changed sides. It ranged from -3.5 to +3.5 along the way, retracing 4 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 7 PM ET.
10% 5–2 days out10% Final two days80% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — +3.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 7 PM ET.
Crossed 3
+2.5 to +3.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 3
+3.5 to -3.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 7 PM ET — back through 3.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 4 prices on record
Open
Opened 52.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 4 days before kickoff.
Move
3 reprices since, 12 points of movement in all. It closed 58.5 — 6 points higher than the open. It ranged from 52.5 to 61.5 along the way, retracing 6 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 5 PM ET.
100% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — 53.5 to 61.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 5 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3.5 covered 325 of 656 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 414 of 656.
The total
Totals of 58.5 went over 3 of 3 times.
Only 3 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 58
Brandon Aubrey
Kicking Points
7.5market 46% over
over
+103
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Calais Campbell
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
CeeDee Lamb
Receiving Yards
82.5market 50% over
we project101.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
CeeDee Lamb
Receptions
6.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Chris Moore
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Chris Moore
Receptions
1.5market 45% over4.5pp between books — shop it
over
+144
FanDuel
under
-122
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Carries
1.5market 51% over
we project2.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Completions
25.5market 53% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Interceptions
0.5market 36% over
over
+155
DraftKings
under
-217
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Pass Attempts
38.5market 53% over
we project38.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Passing TDs
1.5market 33% over25.2pp between books — shop it
over
+185
DraftKings
under
+116
FanDuel
Dak Prescott
Passing Yards
277.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Dak Prescott
Rushing Yards
12.5market 49% over
we project13.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Derrick Henry
Carries
24.5market 50% over
we project22.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Derrick Henry
Receiving Yards
0.5market 33% over
over
+182
FanDuel
under
-250
FanDuel
Derrick Henry
Receptions
1.5market 42% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
+126
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Derrick Henry
Rushing Yards
90.5market 50% over
we project95.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Donovan Ezeiruaku
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Emari Demercado
Rushing Yards
7.5market 51% over3.8pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
George Pickens
Receiving Yards
61.5market 50% over
we project71.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
George Pickens
Receptions
5.5market 46% over
over
+110
FanDuel
under
-135
DraftKings
Jake Ferguson
Receiving Yards
28.5market 50% over
we project20.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jake Ferguson
Receptions
3.5market 53% over
over
-122
FanDuel
under
-101
DraftKings
Javonte Williams
Carries
19.5market 47% over
we project14.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Javonte Williams
Receiving Yards
15.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Javonte Williams
Receptions
2.5market 55% over
over
-138
FanDuel
under
+109
DraftKings
Javonte Williams
Rushing Yards
108.5market 49% over
we project55.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
FanDuel
Justice Hill
Receiving Yards
13.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Justice Hill
Receptions
2.5market 38% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-188
FanDuel
Justice Hill
Rushing Yards
13.5market 51% over
we project26.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Kenny Clark
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Kyle Hamilton
Sacks
0.5
over
+550
FanDuel
under
—
LaJohntay Wester
Receiving Yards
18.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
LaJohntay Wester
Receptions
1.5market 59% over15.9pp between books — shop it
over
+120
FanDuel
under
+133
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Carries
5.5market 47% over
we project4.8/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Completions
14.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Interceptions
0.5market 22% over
over
+330
DraftKings
under
-476
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Pass Attempts
20.5market 55% over
we project24.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Passing TDs
1.5market 58% over
over
-160
FanDuel
under
+124
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Passing Yards
239.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson
Rushing Yards
39.5market 50% over
we project36.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Malachi Lawrence
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Mark Andrews
Receiving Yards
40.5market 50% over
we project35.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Mark Andrews
Receptions
4.5market 43% over
over
+119
DraftKings
under
-154
DraftKings
Mike Green
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Nnamdi Madubuike
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Quinnen Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Rashan Gary
Sacks
0.5
over
+168
FanDuel
under
—
Rashod Bateman
Receiving Yards
46.5market 50% over
we project46.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Rashod Bateman
Receptions
3.5market 47% over6.8pp between books — shop it
over
+130
FanDuel
under
-127
DraftKings
Ryan Flournoy
Receiving Yards
29.5market 50% over
we project38.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Ryan Flournoy
Receptions
3.5market 42% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
+126
DraftKings
under
-158
FanDuel
Tavius Robinson
Sacks
0.5
over
+230
FanDuel
under
—
Trey Hendrickson
Sacks
0.5
over
-132
FanDuel
under
—
Tyler Loop
Kicking Points
8.5market 45% over
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Von Miller
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Zay Flowers
Receiving Yards
71.5market 50% over
we project101.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Zay Flowers
Receptions
5.5market 42% over
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-159
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.2%
10.1
Yards / att
7.2
243.0
Air yards / gm
288.2
0.363
EPA / dropback
0.229
+8.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+3.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs BAL
Dak Prescott
DAL · 5 games, 192 attempts
69
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
5th of 34
38.4 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 3.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 67.2% completions · 0.229 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
19th of 32
BAL has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 268 yards37 attempts × 7.2 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 31.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 4 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Held 3
It sat on 3 for 11 hours, then left it on Sun, Sep 27, 2 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Zay Flowers23.1% target share · 20.4 PPR last 4
Rashod Bateman15.7% target share · 11.3 PPR last 4
Devontez Walker5.2% target share · 4.4 PPR last 4
CeeDee Lamb27.7% target share · 24.9 PPR last 4
George Pickens21.8% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Ryan Flournoy14.9% target share · 7.8 PPR last 4
Derrick Henry72.6% of team carries · 19.1 PPR last 4
Justice Hill11.5% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 4
Javonte Williams71.2% of team carries · 17.9 PPR last 4
Tyler Goodson8.7% of team carries · 2 PPR last 2
Mark Andrews23.1% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Matthew Hibner3.7% target share · 6 PPR last 3
Jake Ferguson11.2% target share · 9.7 PPR last 4
Brevyn Spann-Ford3.2% target share · 0.7 PPR last 4