Sitting on 3 — the most valuable number it can hold
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
DAL
58.9%
NYG
41.1%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Dak Prescott · DALQB Index componentsJameis Winston · NYG
66 · B+
Index
56 · B
38.4
Attempts / gm
33.0
3.0%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.7%
67.2%
Completion
QB Index · vs NYG
Dak Prescott
DAL · 5 games, 192 attempts
66
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
5th of 34
38.4 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 3.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 67.2% completions · 0.229 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
23rd of 32
NYG has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 268 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened +2.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 47 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 0.5 points of movement in all. It closed +3 — the favourite is 0.5 points bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sat, Sep 12, 8 AM ET.
100% Final two days
Biggest move
0.5 points at once — +2.5 to +3 on Sat, Sep 12, 8 AM ET.
Held 3
It closed on 3, having held it for 36 hours.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 47.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 47 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed 48.5 — 1 point higher than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Aug 26, 8 AM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 47.5 to 48.5 on Wed, Aug 26, 8 AM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
The total
Totals of 48.5 went over 95 of 182 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 53
Abdul Carter
Sacks
0.5
over
+106
FanDuel
under
—
Arvell Reese
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Brandon Aubrey
Kicking Points
8.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Brian Burns
Sacks
0.5
over
+116
FanDuel
under
—
Cam Skattebo
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Receptions
2.5market 43% over
over
+116
FanDuel
under
-154
FanDuel
Cam Skattebo
Rushing Yards
49.5market 50% over
we project58.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Cameron Skattebo
Carries
11.5market 48% over
over
-106
DraftKings
under
-122
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Receptions
2.5market 45% over
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-143
DraftKings
Cameron Skattebo
Rushing Yards
49.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
CeeDee Lamb
Receiving Yards
75.5market 50% over
we project101.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
CeeDee Lamb
Receptions
6.5market 44% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
+124
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Carries
2.5market 51% over
we project2.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Completions
23.5market 47% over
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Interceptions
0.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-122
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Passing Yards
260.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Dak Prescott
Rushing Yards
7.5market 50% over
we project13.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Darnell Mooney
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project21.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Darnell Mooney
Receptions
1.5market 48% over4.0pp between books — shop it
over
-104
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Dominic Zvada
Kicking Points
7.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
George Pickens
Receiving Yards
67.5market 50% over
we project71.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
George Pickens
Receptions
4.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+122
DraftKings
Isaiah Likely
Receiving Yards
35.5market 50% over
we project56.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Isaiah Likely
Receptions
3.5market 45% over5.9pp between books — shop it
over
+111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jake Ferguson
Receiving Yards
29.5market 50% over
we project20.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Jake Ferguson
Receptions
3.5market 51% over2.8pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Javonte Williams
Carries
17.5market 52% over
we project14.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-102
DraftKings
Javonte Williams
Receiving Yards
10.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Javonte Williams
Receptions
2.5market 39% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
+143
DraftKings
under
-180
FanDuel
Javonte Williams
Rushing Yards
74.5market 50% over
we project55.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaxson Dart
Carries
6.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Jaxson Dart
Completions
18.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Jaxson Dart
Interceptions
0.5market 45% over
over
+108
DraftKings
under
-139
DraftKings
Jaxson Dart
Passing Yards
213.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Jaxson Dart
Rushing Yards
31.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
KaVontae Turpin
Receiving Yards
8.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
KaVontae Turpin
Receptions
1.5market 35% over
over
+174
FanDuel
under
-227
DraftKings
KaVontae Turpin
Rushing Yards
5.5market 49% over
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-119
DraftKings
Malachi Fields
Receiving Yards
21.5market 50% over
we project29.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Malachi Fields
Receptions
2.5market 40% over2.9pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-160
FanDuel
Malik Davis
Rushing Yards
14.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Malik Nabers
Receiving Yards
57.5market 50% over
we project65.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Malik Nabers
Receptions
5.5market 42% over
over
+126
FanDuel
under
-161
DraftKings
Odell Beckham Jr.
Receiving Yards
10.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Odell Beckham Jr.
Receptions
1.5market 41% over
over
+131
DraftKings
under
-169
DraftKings
Quinnen Williams
Sacks
0.5
over
+168
FanDuel
under
—
Rashan Gary
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Ryan Flournoy
Receiving Yards
26.5market 50% over
we project38.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Ryan Flournoy
Receptions
2.5market 41% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
+127
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Theo Johnson
Receiving Yards
13.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Theo Johnson
Receptions
1.5market 51% over
over
-119
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Von Miller
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
57.6%
7.2
Yards / att
6.1
288.2
Air yards / gm
317.5
0.229
EPA / dropback
-0.057
+3.0
CPOE
completion % over expected
-7.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 4 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs DAL
Jameis Winston
NYG · 4 games, 132 attempts
56
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
13th of 34
33.0 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 7.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.6% completions · -0.057 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
3rd of 32
DAL has allowed 8.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 187 yards31 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
This line sits on 3, which was the exact final margin in 1,046 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
CeeDee Lamb27.7% target share · 24.9 PPR last 4
George Pickens21.8% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Ryan Flournoy14.9% target share · 7.8 PPR last 4
Malik Nabers28.0% target share · 15.3 PPR last 4
Darnell Mooney10.4% target share · 3.8 PPR last 4
Malachi Fields10.4% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Javonte Williams71.2% of team carries · 17.9 PPR last 4
Tyler Goodson8.7% of team carries · 2 PPR last 2
Emari Demercado4.8% of team carries · 0.8 PPR last 2
Cam Skattebo57.4% of team carries · 9.3 PPR last 4
Jake Ferguson11.2% target share · 9.7 PPR last 4
Brevyn Spann-Ford3.2% target share · 0.7 PPR last 4
Isaiah Likely29.3% target share · 14.4 PPR last 4
Theo Johnson5.5% target share · 3.9 PPR last 4
