Final · San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7
Opened
-3.5
First seen Jul 29
Closed
-3.5
Unmoved
Total
44.5
Prices archived
244
20 spread · 45 total
0.5 points past 3
Where the best number is
LAR-3.5DraftKings
SF+3.5DraftKings
Over43.5DraftKings
Under44.5FanDuel
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
SF
36.0%
LAR
64.0%
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Brock Purdy · SFQB Index componentsMatthew Stafford · LA
44 · D
Index
60 · B
28.4
Attempts / gm
43.2
2.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
3.1%
69.0%
QB Index · vs LA
Brock Purdy
SF · 5 games, 142 attempts
44
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
25th of 34
28.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 2.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
4th of 34
8.4 yards per attempt · 69.0% completions · 0.397 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
31st of 32
LA has allowed 5.7 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 234 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 44 days before kickoff and never moved.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 49.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 44 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 5 points of movement in all. It closed 44.5 — 5 points lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Sep 10, 9 PM ET.
20% 5+ days out80% Gameday
Biggest move
4 points at once — 48.5 to 44.5 on Thu, Sep 10, 9 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3.5 covered 325 of 656 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 414 of 656.
The total
Totals of 44.5 went over 129 of 294 times.
The range clears a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 64
Blake Corum
Carries
9.5market 47% over
we project7.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Blake Corum
Receiving Yards
2.5market 49% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Blake Corum
Receptions
0.5market 44% over10.4pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Blake Corum
Rushing Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project36.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Braden Fiske
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Brock Purdy
Carries
3.5market 41% over
we project5.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-172
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Completions
28.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Interceptions
0.5market 51% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Passing Yards
243.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Brock Purdy
Rushing Yards
18.5market 51% over
we project25.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Byron Young
Sacks
0.5
over
+116
FanDuel
under
—
Christian McCaffrey
Carries
12.5market 50% over
we project12.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Receiving Yards
35.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey
Receptions
4.5market 49% over2.3pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey
Rushing Yards
58.5market 50% over
we project57.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Colby Parkinson
Receiving Yards
12.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Colby Parkinson
Receptions
2.5market 40% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+138
DraftKings
under
-172
FanDuel
Davante Adams
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project88.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Davante Adams
Receptions
4.5market 51% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
De'Zhaun Stribling
Receiving Yards
32.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
De'Zhaun Stribling
Receptions
2.5market 54% over
over
-128
FanDuel
under
+106
DraftKings
Deebo Samuel
Receiving Yards
31.5market 50% over
we project41.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Deebo Samuel
Receptions
2.5market 54% over
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+106
DraftKings
Deebo Samuel
Rushing Yards
9.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Demarcus Robinson
Receiving Yards
10.5market 51% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Demarcus Robinson
Receptions
1.5market 35% over
over
+170
DraftKings
under
-233
DraftKings
DeMarcus Robinson
Receiving Yards
15.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
DeMarcus Robinson
Receptions
1.5market 45% over
over
+106
FanDuel
under
-140
FanDuel
Eddy Pineiro
Kicking Points
6.5market 52% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-102
DraftKings
Fred Warner
Sacks
0.5
over
+640
FanDuel
under
—
George Kittle
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project53.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
George Kittle
Receptions
3.5market 44% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+114
DraftKings
under
-140
FanDuel
Harrison Mevis
Kicking Points
7.5market 55% over
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
Jake Tonges
Receiving Yards
5.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Jake Tonges
Receptions
1.5market 38% over
over
+149
DraftKings
under
-192
DraftKings
Jordan Whittington
Receiving Yards
0.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Jordan Whittington
Receptions
0.5market 49% over14.1pp between books — shop it
over
-111
DraftKings
under
+148
FanDuel
Josaiah Stewart
Sacks
0.5
over
+700
FanDuel
under
—
Kaelon Black
Rushing Yards
9.5
we project27.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-222
DraftKings
under
—
Keion White
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Kobie Turner
Sacks
0.5
over
+280
FanDuel
under
—
Kyle Juszczyk
Receiving Yards
4.5market 52% over
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-103
DraftKings
Kyle Juszczyk
Receptions
1.5market 37% over
over
+162
FanDuel
under
-204
DraftKings
Kyren Williams
Carries
14.5market 55% over
we project14.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Kyren Williams
Receiving Yards
10.5market 49% over
over
-110
FanDuel
under
-120
FanDuel
Kyren Williams
Receptions
1.5market 55% over
over
-143
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Kyren Williams
Rushing Yards
55.5market 50% over
we project68.6/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford
Completions
19.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Interceptions
0.5market 37% over
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-208
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford
Passing Yards
233.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford
Rushing Yards
0.5market 34% over
we project4.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+175
DraftKings
under
-230
FanDuel
Mike Evans
Receiving Yards
49.5market 50% over
we project65.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Mike Evans
Receptions
3.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
+100
FanDuel
Myles Garrett
Sacks
0.5
over
-148
FanDuel
under
—
Nick Bosa
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Osa Odighizuwa
Sacks
0.5
over
+320
FanDuel
under
—
Poona Ford
Sacks
0.5
over
+750
FanDuel
under
—
Puka Nacua
Receiving Yards
90.5market 50% over
we project112.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Puka Nacua
Receptions
7.5market 44% over
over
+116
DraftKings
under
-149
DraftKings
Puka Nacua
Rushing Yards
0.5market 45% over4.9pp between books — shop it
over
+128
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
Terrance Ferguson
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
we project21.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Terrance Ferguson
Receptions
1.5market 44% over13.6pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
+118
FanDuel
Tyler Higbee
Receiving Yards
17.5market 50% over
we project56.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Tyler Higbee
Receptions
1.5market 55% over
over
-136
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
64.4%
8.4
Yards / att
7.3
220.6
Air yards / gm
374.2
0.397
EPA / dropback
0.143
+6.0
CPOE
completion % over expected
+0.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs SF
Matthew Stafford
LA · 5 games, 216 attempts
60
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
1st of 34
43.2 attempts per game · team runs 69 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 3.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.3 yards per attempt · 64.4% completions · 0.143 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
30th of 32
SF has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 309 yards42 attempts × 7.3 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
300.5 yards in 4 of 5325.5 yards in 3 of 5350.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Mike Evans25.4% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
Deebo Samuel Sr.14.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Demarcus Robinson4.3% target share · 9.7 PPR last 2
Davante Adams21.4% target share · 22.4 PPR last 4
Puka Nacua21.4% target share · 25.9 PPR last 3
Konata Mumpfield6.7% target share · 5.8 PPR last 4
Christian McCaffrey47.7% of team carries · 19.4 PPR last 4
Kaelon Black28.9% of team carries · 1.8 PPR last 4
Kyren Williams57.4% of team carries · 23.5 PPR last 4
Blake Corum31.1% of team carries · 8.3 PPR last 4
George Kittle20.3% target share · 17.2 PPR last 4
Tyler Higbee11.9% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Terrance Ferguson5.7% target share · 6.4 PPR last 3
Davis Allen4.3% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4