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SALCI History

Model accuracy — SALCI score vs actual K totals · 2026 season

OverviewLiveModel Accuracy

4,206 starts on record · 4,175 settled · 31 pending · 161 dates covered · Mar 25 → Sep 4

2026 SeasonAll-time

How close SALCI's projected strikeouts land vs. actual — this is model prediction accuracy across every tracked starter, not betting results. For the bets we actually post, see Overview.

Model Calibration · all tracked starters

80%

Floor Hit Rate

3356/4175 starters

47%

Proj Hit Rate

1967/4175 starters

-0.1K

Avg Delta

actual − projected

49

Avg SALCI

4206 starts

Last 30d: 80% floor · 46% proj · -0.1K · 800 starts

Daily Accuracy

How often actual Ks beat the Floor and Projected lines, per day

Thu, Sep 3

94%floor56%proj18 starts
95S

Tarik Skubal

Floor 7K ✗·Proj 6.9K ✗·Line 8.5K

6K

-0.9

95S

Logan Henderson

Floor 6K ✓·Proj 6.2K ✓·Line 5.5K

7K

+0.8

73A

Hunter Brown

Floor 5K ✓·Proj 5.7K ✓·Line 6.5K

7K

+1.3

69B+

Jack Perkins

Floor 4K ✓·Proj 5.5K ✓·Line 5.5K

7K

+1.5

62B+

Lake Bachar

Floor 3K ✓·Proj 3.5K ✗

3K

-0.5

60B+

Kevin Gausman

Floor 4K ✓·Proj 5.4K ✓·Line 5.5K

9K

+3.6

48C

Jake Bennett

Floor 3K ✓·Proj 4.8K ✓·Line 4.5K

7K

+2.2

46C

Quinn Mathews

Floor 4K ✓·Proj 5.2K ✗·Line 4.5K

4K

-1.2

45C

Shane McClanahan

Floor 2K ✓·Proj 4.2K ✗·Line 4.5K

3K

-1.2

42D

Blade Tidwell

Floor 2K ✓·Proj 2.8K ✓

5K

+2.3

40D

Kade Anderson

Floor 3K ✓·Proj 4.4K ✗·Line 5.5K

3K

-1.4

39D

José Soriano

Floor 2K ✓·Proj 2.6K ✗

2K

-0.6

39D

Michael Wacha

Floor 3K ✓·Proj 4.9K ✓·Line 5.5K

7K

+2.1

24F

Brandon Young

Floor 2K ✓·Proj 4.0K ✓·Line 4.5K

7K

+3.0

23F

Cal Quantrill

Floor 2K ✓·Proj 3.2K ✓·Line 3.5K

5K

+1.8

20F

Luis Castillo

Floor 2K ✓·Proj 3.8K ✗·Line 4.5K

3K

-0.8

19F

Tanner Bibee

Floor 1K ✓·Proj 1.9K ✓

4K

+2.1

16F

Sandy Alcantara

Floor 2K ✓·Proj 3.8K ✗·Line 3.5K

2K

-1.8

Updated 13h 19m ago