Model accuracy — SALCI score vs actual K totals · 2026 season
2,983 starts on record · 2,954 settled · 29 pending · 116 dates covered · Mar 25 → Jul 21
How close SALCI's projected strikeouts land vs. actual — this is model prediction accuracy across every tracked starter, not betting results. For the bets we actually post, see Overview.
Model Calibration · all tracked starters
81%
Floor Hit Rate
2384/2954 starters
47%
Proj Hit Rate
1375/2954 starters
-0.1K
Avg Delta
actual − projected
50
Avg SALCI
2983 starts
Last 30d: 80% floor · 48% proj · -0.1K · 712 starts
Daily Accuracy
How often actual Ks beat the Floor and Projected lines, per day
Mon, Jul 20
Jacob deGrom
6K
-1.3
Dylan Cease
OVER7K
-1.9
Joe Ryan
3K
-4.2
Braxton Ashcraft
2K
-5.0
Jacob Misiorowski
6K
-2.3
Payton Tolle
9K
+2.8
Ryan Weathers
5K
-1.4
Emmet Sheehan
6K
-0.2
Jack Flaherty
4K
-1.7
Cristopher Sánchez
7K
+1.3
Andrew Alvarez
2K
-2.7
George Kirby
6K
+0.3
Ronel Blanco
8K
+3.3
Kyle Leahy
4K
-0.5
Freddy Peralta
6K
+0.7
Shane Baz
6K
+0.8
José Soriano
7K
+2.0
Jameson Taillon
6K
+1.0
Kyle Freeland
4K
-0.4
JP Sears
3K
-1.1
Andrew Abbott
6K
+1.3
Bryce Elder
4K
+0.0
Michael Wacha
5K
+0.6
Jeffrey Springs
2K
-1.8
Janson Junk
3K
-0.6
Tanner Bibee
5K
+1.4
Trevor McDonald
3K
-0.5
Erick Fedde
6K
+3.1
Nick Martinez
0K
-2.8
Mitch Bratt
4K
+2.0