Model accuracy — SALCI score vs actual K totals · all-time
2,984 starts on record · 2,954 settled · 30 pending · 116 dates covered · Mar 25 → Jul 21
How close SALCI's projected strikeouts land vs. actual — this is model prediction accuracy across every tracked starter, not betting results. For the bets we actually post, see Overview.
Model Calibration · all tracked starters
81%
Floor Hit Rate
2387/2954 starters
47%
Proj Hit Rate
1377/2954 starters
-0.1K
Avg Delta
actual − projected
50
Avg SALCI
2984 starts
Last 30d: 80% floor · 48% proj · -0.1K · 712 starts
Daily Accuracy
How often actual Ks beat the Floor and Projected lines, per day
Mon, Jul 20
Dylan Cease
7K
-4.6
Emmet Sheehan
6K
-1.4
Payton Tolle
9K
+1.2
Jacob deGrom
6K
-2.0
Ryan Weathers
5K
-1.3
Joe Ryan
3K
-3.1
Jacob Misiorowski
6K
-1.7
Braxton Ashcraft
2K
-2.7
Jack Flaherty
4K
-1.7
Cristopher Sánchez
7K
+1.0
Andrew Alvarez
2K
-2.9
George Kirby
6K
+0.0
Ronel Blanco
8K
+3.3
Kyle Leahy
4K
-1.4
Freddy Peralta
6K
+1.2
José Soriano
7K
+0.7
Shane Baz
6K
+0.8
Jameson Taillon
6K
+2.2
JP Sears
3K
-1.0
Kyle Freeland
4K
-0.7
Andrew Abbott
6K
+1.5
Bryce Elder
4K
-0.2
Michael Wacha
5K
+0.8
Jeffrey Springs
2K
-1.8
Janson Junk
3K
-0.6
Tanner Bibee
5K
+1.4
Trevor McDonald
3K
+0.5
Erick Fedde
6K
+3.9
Nick Martinez
0K
-3.1
Mitch Bratt
4K
+1.6