Merrill Kelly
AZ · RHP
AZ @ HOU 2026-09-05T00:10:00Z
Fade
Fade
SALCI strikeout confidence
CSW 23.6%Whiff 20.2%Stuff+ 109
2026 Season· full year
G 25GS 25IP 141.7ERA 5.08WHIP 1.48K 95K/9 6.0
Strikeout Projection
K Projection
243.4
No live book line foundEdge calc requires a real book line
Score Breakdown
Arsenal
1352%
Matchup
6230%
Workload
4410%
Location
418%
Stuff+109
Location+84
CSW%23.6%
Wtd Whiff%20.2%
K-Line Probability
| K Target | Probability | Book |
|---|---|---|
| 2+ Ks | 85.3% | no line |
| 3+ Ks | 66.0% | no line |
| 4+ Ks | 44.2% | no line |
| 5+ Ks | 25.6% | no line |
λ = 3.40 expected Ks · Poisson model · floor & ceiling from Monte Carlo · tap a posted price to log it at 1u